If Clinton wins Texas, it puts things way close...cuz she won all the big states....

[GreenTea]

CA, NY, NJ, Ohio, MI, FL, AZ and if Texas (along with the smaller states she's won )...

Only the big state PA is left, if she wins that state....it will be on to the convention, very close.

[Liberal In Texas]

1. She isn't going to. n/t

[DJ13]

2. Those "big states" will vote Democrat in the GE anyway

Thats not really a selling point for Hillary continuing.

[BeatleBoot]

7. Michigan won't. Florida won't

sorry Charlie.

[Seeker30]

9. So what you're saying is the red states should pick the nominee

makes perfect sense.

[lastliberalintexas]

13. That's not the point

It's becoming possible (though not necessarily probable) that Clinton could win more voters while Obama wins the delegates. The party needs to be prepared, because depending on the final vote counts from 2 big states tonight and PA later, it very well could be the nightmoare scenario that the party has feared.

[demo dutch]

3. Governor of FL stated he'll support a primary redo

[lapfog_1]

12. But he didn't say he would PAY for it.

Not to mention that another Primary might not be legal.

A caucus would be legal... and Dean has offered to help pay for that (it's not on the taxpayers dime anyway).

[demo dutch]

21. Caucuses are undemocratic . It's too restrictive

[BeatleBoot]

4. Absolutely correct.

and PA is Hillary Country!

[ccpup]

5. it also raises the necessary question

as to why can't Barack Obama -- despite his obvious talent and intelligence as well as overwhelming support -- close the deal? And how might that hurt us in the General?

One thing you can say about Hillary is she knows how to close the deal when the chips are down. Can Barack?

[demo dutch]

11. She carrying the DEM base moreso than Obama

[Recursion]

26. Well, no, you can't remotely say that about Hillary

She's won all the big Democratic strongholds and is barely staying alive, let alone closing the deal.

[Iceburg]

6. Exit polls predict Hillary will win Texas...

Rhode Island -

Male (43%) - 56% Obama, 43% Clinton
Female (57%) - 58% Clinton, 41% Obama

Ohio -

Male (41%) - 52% Obama, 47% Clinton
Female (59%) - 54% Clinton, 45% Obama

Texas -

Male (43%) - 52% Obama, 46% Clinton
Female (57%) - 53% Clinton, 46% Obama

----------------------
Now crunching the numbers ...
If the above exit poll numbers hold ...
Clinton wins RI with 53%
Clinton wins Ohio with 52%
Clinton wins Texas with 52%

Yahooo ... A trifecta for Hillary...
and a cremasteric response for Chris Mathews[/h3

[high density]

15. Exit polls ignore the early voters and the caucus results

So I think your celebration of a trifecta is a bit premature.

[Iceburg]

25. 2 out of 3 and counting /nt

[cui bono]

8. The delegates are given proportionally so it doesn't matter who wins the states

as a whole.

Time for her to throw in the towel.

[demo dutch]

16. Popular vote is sill important. You wouldn't want a candidate not winning the pop vote

Not good for the party!

[high density]

20. Umm changing the rules mid game is not good for the party either

The candidates knew the game they were getting into, and that game was a race for delegates not for a national popular vote.

[lastliberalintexas]

28. But again, it lends an air of illegitimacy to the candidate

If the SC had never interfered in 2000, Bush's victory still would have been tainted because he lost the popular vote. People tend to not like that kind of result.


I'm not a supporter of Clinton or Obama, and I'm not asking that any rules be changed. I just hope that the party leaders are ready for the potential blowback if such a scenario really does develop. And given the conduct of our party leaders most of the time, I don't have that much confidence that they are prepared.

[high density]

29. I guess it depends on how you want to "taint" the election

Do you want to use the delegates, as agreed, or do you want to ignore the rules and go on the popular vote?

[lastliberalintexas]

31. To say that either side would be happy with such a result

is farcical. Obama's supporters would be just as pissed if he won more votes but Clinton won on delegates. Indeed, I remember quite a few very vocal Obama supporters on DU threatening to leave the party is that very thing happened. I find it highly ironic that the tables could possibly be turned. :shrug:


I understand the rules of the election and that delegates matter. All I'm saying is that the average voter would not be too happy with such a result. Either way.

I doubt it ends up happening, as I think he will handily win the delegates and win enough of the "popular vote" to have a majority. So it's probably a moot point, anyway.

[high density]

10. She's only winning TX on Tuesday night

I think Wednesday morning is going to be a different story, especially when we have the caucus results factored in.

[stahbrett]

14. If only the "big" states count, then they shouldn't bother with the other states

Seriously, why even have primaries/caucuses anywhere else? Just have a single day, call it Super-Duper-Only-9-States_Count-Tuesday, and be done with it. It sounds ridiculous to me, but that seems to be what the Hillary supporters actually think should happen.

[high density]

18. I've been asking Hillary Clinton supporters this all night

I don't get it. The states that they feel count are the "big states" and the "blue states." Basically they want a replay of the 2004 race, which of course we lost.

[demo dutch]

19. That's how it was with Gore and Kerry!

[BeatleBoot]

27. Why don't we have Closed Primaries where only Democrats can vote?

Since it's called a Democratic caucus and primary.

If so, we would have a GE candidate by now.

And her name would be Hillary Clinton.

[stahbrett]

30. Don't know - ask the powers-that-be

But keep in mind that the campaigning would have been done differently, and it's impossible to know what the result would have been. Would one of the candidates that already dropped out done better? Would Obama have campaigned differently? Would Gore and Kerry had been the nominees in 2000 and 2004? Would Bill Clinton have won the nomination back in 1992? If not, Hillary wouldn't even likely be in this campaign.

[AZBlue]

17. AZ is a "big state"

Oh right, because she won it, it's now a big state.

Psst...as someone who actually lives here, let me give you a dose of reality - it's NOT a big state. Sorry.

[GreenTea]

23. This side of "big"...AZ has almost 3 million registered voters. (20th)

[rwheeler31]

22. Do you think McVain is gonna spin this?

We have down ticket canidates.

[chascarrillo]

24. IL? GA? VA? WA?

All bigger than AZ, last time I checked.