I'm Not Sure Obama will win the Texas Caucus

[MadBadger]

And I havent been sure. His lead is now down to 52-48 with 36% in. I think the only reason Obama does so well in Caucus states is because Hillary never really campaigned there. But she did campaign in Texas, thats for sure. I hope he can pull it out by at least ten points, but we'll see.

[anigbrowl]

1. I'll be disappointed if he doesn't

but I've given up trying to analyze it via the total numbers for tonight as they can be somewhat misleading in TX, I'm just going to see what the end result is tomorrow.

[Horse with no Name]

3. This is only the start of the caucus process

The next one is March 29th.

[babylonsister]

2. I think he wins it. nt

[MadBadger]

4. I think he wins it do, but I dont like how close it is right now.

[Barack_America]

6. San Antonio just dumped in.

That's why it tightened up.

But look at Dallas and Houston so far. (Although I'm pissed at Houston for not coming out stronger in the primary)

[ClayZ]

7. I do too!

[Barack_America]

5. He will.

Compare the counties (primary vs. caucus) in this link.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/TX.html

[MadBadger]

8. Makes me feel a little better, but I did notice in places like Hidalgo and El Paso, her lead grows.

[Barack_America]

9. Dallas/Ft. Worth are much bigger.

El Paso cannot overcome them. And if Houston holds, it's over.

But the more interesting story, to me, are the smaller counties in the eastern portion of the state that were decidedly gray for the primary, but a very definite green for the caucus. Once again, if that holds, Obama wins easily.

[orleans]

10. is there a link?

does cnn have the numbers up?

[MadBadger]

11. yea

[blogslut]

12. We'll just have to see

I will say this. The county I live in had record turnout for the Democratic vote. The repubs beat us but we increased 7 times over the Democratic primary in 2004. My precinct had 29 caucus for Hillary and 13 for Obama + 1 undecided, who made Obama his second choice. Clinton was awarded six delegates. Obama was awarded four.

Now, take into account where I live. Senate district 31. We cover the entire Panhandle and most of West Texas and do you know how many delegates we're adding to the final pot?

2

There were four precincts in the same room and by my guess, the whole group broke down to: 3/75 Clinton - 2/5 Obama.

That's coming from the reddedst Senate district in the state. Your numbers may vary. :)

[Cha]

13. Yippee! Obama won

the edge of your seat caucusing in Texas!!