Kos sez net gain for Hillary is +2. Yikes.

[dkf]

Delegates Hotlist
by kos
Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:11:58 AM PST

So I was going to go to bed, but I'm sort of wired. So let's see where the delegate numbers are today. All these numbers are tentative, as final vote tallies come in:

Vermont (15 delegates)

Obama 9
Clinton 6


Rhode Island (21 delegates)

Clinton 12
Obama 8


Texas

Primary (126 delegates, Link)

Clinton 64 63
Obama 62

Caucuses (67 delegates; tentative results based on a straight percentage from 34% reporting)

Obama ~37
Clinton ~30

Total (Nowhere near final)

Obama ~100
Clinton ~93 92


Ohio (141 delegates, punching in results with 97% reporting here)

Clinton 73
Obama 68

So total for the night, thus far, is Clinton 187 186 and Obama 185. Not all votes are in, so things will change a bit. But at this point, we have a ridiculously tiny one-delegate lead for Clinton for the night, which could either produce her first delegate victory of the election, or be erased by the rest of the still-not-reported Texas caucuses.

http://www.dailykos.com/

[bluestateguy]

1. Obama can wash that out with another drubbing of Hillary in Wyoming and Mississippi

Hillary does not understand that by writing off these small red states she allows Obama to inch ahead in a drip, drip way.

[jgraz]

2. I predict he drops his 50-superD bomb tomorrow.

That'll get her attention.

[David__77]

5. Let us hope it's soon.

We need to consolidate and change the tone. Stressing that Obama is the front-runner is key.

[mattclearing]

13. At this point, I'd hold off on that.

She's earned the right to fight on with these wins. While she risks damaging Obama, I think Obama risks damaging himself if he tries to go the superdelegate route before the votes are cast.

[jgraz]

16. I don't think he has a choice at this point

The "bomb" has already been leaked and the Clintons are going crazy trying to pull delegates back to their side. The sooner he announces this, the better it will be. And if he can lower the boom the day after Hillary's so-called "big night", so much the better.

[mattclearing]

18. You may be right, but I don't like it.

After all, there's nothing stopping them from going back against him if things change.

[jgraz]

20. Why? Hillary has been planning to subvert the vote with super delegates for months

Hell, she even wanted to go after the pledged delegates. Why should Obama have ANY hesitation to start using the superdelegates to squash her (minimal) momentum.

[mattclearing]

23. I don't disagree, but it's a matter of stooping to that level.

You want to win the votes. The delegates are a function of the votes. If you start valuing superdelegates over the American people, that's a problem.

[jgraz]

32. "Not stooping to that level" is why Kerry is not in the White House right now

I say "stoop away!"

[mattclearing]

47. Against Republicans is a different matter entirely.

Take no prisoners there.

But this is an intraparty affair. Some things should be off limits. Perhaps the campaigns should have had an undercover meeting and agreed to some rules for combat.

[jgraz]

53. Hillary's close enough in my book

I may reconsider that if she stops praising the Republican nominee at the expense of her fellow Democrat.

[mattclearing]

55. And rejects and denounces fear-mongering campaign ads and whispering campaigns?

:)

[jgraz]

56. Well, let's not get crazy here. This is Hillary we're talking about, after all.

[aquart]

24. Why no reason at all. Except he was pretending he was different.

But he's not a bit different, is he? Let's get that out there right away, you hear?

[jgraz]

27. Well, he is a Muslim -- as your candidate keeps pointing out.

[aquart]

39. Really, when?

Such fanciful lies I'm hearing tonight. Let's have that multitude of quotes, darling.

[jgraz]

42. Right, we really should take her at her word on this one

After all, she's obviously not cynically using racism to ooze her way to the nomination.

Well, not that I know of.

[TheFriendlyAnarchist]

60. Off topic, but I love your signature.

That's exactly how it's been going for my family.

[jgraz]

64. Just so long as I don't have to change it again.

[aquart]

63. So you have no quotes.

And the one who cynically uses racism is dear Senator Obama. I was fascinated to see the Clintons magically become racists just in time for South Carolina. That is the essence of swiftboating, babycakes. Obama should get an award for it. "Fairytale" is now a racist word. Please.

[Cha]

66. Especially with all their whoop to doo doo

Victory parties and lying everytime she opens her pie hole.

[dansolo]

62. Hillary has gone the superdelegate route since day one

Hillary's delegate numbers have been the benefit of a large number of superdelegates that committed to her early. A 50 superdelegate bomb now will basically make their total even, which will illustrate how big his elected delegate lead really is.

[aquart]

22. Oh, I do hope so.

Show everyone that he doesn't care about the popular vote. His only interest is winning. Go for it, Barry.

[jgraz]

34. There's just no hypocrisy like Hillary Hypocrisy

Hillary pisses on every state she loses, craps on the caucuses and threatens to steal the fucking PLEDGED delegates, and you say "Barry" only cares about winning.

What's "your girl's" slogan again? Oh right: She's in it to WIN. :eyes:

[aquart]

37. I see. Obama's in it to lose, then. Got it.

You really need to point out an ILLEGAL action, not just one you wish you'd thought of first.

[jgraz]

44. Ah, so ILLEGAL is now the bar you set for Hillary

Nice. She should really apply for a job in the Bush Admin.

Oh right... she already has one.

[Cha]

67. MOney Quote..

"There's just no hypocrisy like Hillary Hypocrisy"

"She's in it to win" and she's just getting the leftovers "warmed up".

I'm glad you're in it 80% for Obama!

[anonymeme]

26. Well He Paid Enough For Them! This is Why We Have the Best Government Money Can Buy!

Well He Paid Enough For Them! This is Why We Have the Best Government Money Can Buy!

And his payments to super-delegates outstrip Hillary's 3 to 1.

Where the Hell does all this money come from, that Obama has to spend? Can his base possibly have that much money?

Sounds like Republicans have been chipping in for Ol' Barack.

There'd be two reasons Repubs might do that and neither one of them is pretty: One is that the Repubs are terrified of Hillary because she actually performs better against McCain in polls than Obama does. So they want to fete him and treat him to the kingly ride before they burn going into the GE.

-OR-

He is a stealth Republican. It's not without the realm of possibility. One of his heroes he names in interviews is Ronald Reagan. He CHOSE Joe Lieberman for his mentor when he got to Congress and stumped for him after Lieberman dumped the Dems and of the top 3 people who received campaign contributions through Rezko, Luis Gutierrez is the top recipient with 6 major contributions, followed by Barack Obama with 5, followed by George W. Bush with 4.

And you may not remember, but I do, that there was just too much happiness and joy on the part of the Republicans when Barack was elected to the Senate. They wanted not to lose any seats and yet there was a bunch of back-clapping and glad-handing.

Whenever a Republican is happy about some Democrat, I have to stop and ask: Why?

Here's the article about the donations to Super-Delegates:


"It would be unseemly for the candidates to hand out thousands of dollars to primary voters, or to the delegates pledged to represent the will of those voters, elected officials who are superdelegates have received at least $904,200 from Obama and Clinton in the form of campaign contributions over the last three years, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

Obama, who narrowly leads in the count of pledged, "non-super" delegates, has doled out more than $698,200 to superdelegates from his political action committee, Hope Fund, or campaign committee since 2005. Of the 82 elected officials who had announced as of Feb. 12 that their superdelegate votes would go to the Illinois senator, 35, or 43 percent of this group, have received campaign contributions from him in the 2006 or 2008 election cycles, totaling $232,200. In addition, Obama has been endorsed by 52 superdelegates who haven't held elected office recently and, therefore, didn't receive campaign contributions from him.

Clinton does not appear to have been as openhanded. Her PAC, HILLPAC, and campaign committee appear to have distributed $205,500 to superdelegates. Only 12 percent of her elected superdelegates, or 13 of 109 who have said they will back her, have received campaign contributions, totaling about $95,000 since 2005. An additional 128 unelected superdelegates support Clinton, according to a blog tracking superdelegates and their endorsements, 2008 Democratic Convention Watch.

Because superdelegates will make up around 20 percent of 4,000 delegates to the Democratic convention in August--Republicans don't have superdelegates­Clinton and Obama are aggressively wooing the more than 400 superdelegates who haven't yet made up their minds."

http://www.capitaleye.org/inside.asp?ID=336

[jgraz]

28. So funny coming from a Hillary supporter

You guys really hope that none of us have a single memory cell in our heads, don't you?

[mattclearing]

11. It's Dean's revenge.

The 50-state strategy works. They ignore it at their peril.

[nebula]

3. LMAO

all this hoopla and gloating over Hillary's 'Big Night' and
all she has to show for it is a lousy 2 point gain?

BWAHAHAHA.

[jgraz]

4. Honestly, it's two more than I thought she'd get.

[lapfog_1]

7. yup... if that number holds... I was predicting

a three state win for Hillary yesterday AND a +1 to +10 delegate win for Obama!

(I was thinking he could lose the Texas primary and still win a lot more delegates there than Hillary)

[lapfog_1]

6. If that... Todd from MSNBC

has it as Obama +1 to +7...

but the caucuses seem tighter than he expected.

Anyway, no matter what... the net result from yesterday is a whole +/- 5 delegate swing for either candidate. (Hillary gains +5 or Obama gains +5 is really the outside numbers here).


Worse for Hillary... another 369 delegates are off the table.

Let's say that she gained 5 on Obama yesterday (for the sake of argument).

She needs to gain 155 to tie him.

That means she needs contests with 11,439 available delegates AND she has to continue winning like she did yesterday.

And that's just to tie Obama!

[aquart]

29. See, Obama was supposed to wipe up the floor with her. He didn't.

She's a "COMEBACK KID." He's "on the wane." "Peaked." "A loser."

Perception is all. After the 11-streak, he was considered inevitable. Turns out, HE AIN'T.

And did you see how nicely she did in those Texas border counties??? Madre de dios!

[jgraz]

36. Yeah, the way she dropped those 20 point leads in OH and TX was really impressive

:eyes:

[aquart]

40. Uh huh. You're scared shitless. LOL!

[jgraz]

45. That a soulless corporate whore may slime her way to the nomination?

Nobody with eyes, ears, a brain and a reflection wouldn't be scared by that prospect.

[woolldog]

8. lol

:rofl:

[Buve]

9. yet we think this is democratic

this system is so f'd up.


If the numbers were swapped you'd all cry foul.

[woolldog]

10. Personally, I wouldn't.

Same thing happened in Alabama; O won the popular vote overwhelmingly, and I think H won the delgates by 1 or 2. I didn't cry foul.

[Dogmudgeon]

43. The exact words were "blood will run in the streets"

Not one, but at least two posts.

(Prospective citation flamers may first inform us of the popular vote totals.)

--p!

[nebula]

25. I wouldn't cry foul in this case

Hillary's wins have been through the shameless use of fear-mongering, unethical, and dirty campaign tactics. She deserves to have her ill-gotten gains cancelled out by the caucuses.

Karma's a bitch, ain't it?

[ellisonz]

12. It's a delegate draw.

[jgraz]

14. Which is a major loss for Hillary

No other way to see it, unless you want to do an end run around the pledged delegates in Denver.

[ellisonz]

21. I think it's a strategic loss, but not a major one. It still is a tactical win.

She gets to go on to PA at least. That is what was decided tonight.

[jgraz]

30. It doesn't change the eventual outcome one bit

It just continues to erode the Democrats' chances in the fall.

[cali]

52. Oh good. we get to disagree- big time.

This sucks for Obama. Yeah, yeah she didn't blow him out or the water in OH or TX, he's still ahead in delegates blah blah blah, but the entire narrative has changed, and there's no way she drops out. This keeps going on, we end up with a mortally wounded Obama as nominee. What good is that?

[aquart]

31. Except for that perception thing. That says BIG WINNER!!!

I know I wasn't expecting it. I thought for sure we're stuck with Obama and better get used to it. So I'm all bouncy bouncy bouncy tonight. And I ain't alone.

[jgraz]

38. Enjoy it, by all means.

You can think back to this night when Obama is giving his acceptance speech.

[Onlooker]

15. CNN shows Clinton +23

Though the caucuses will obviously reduce that margin, so using the Kos caucus count, I think she'll probably gain about 16 delegates.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/#20080304

[aquart]

33. Why haven't they called the caucuses for Obama, then?

[jgraz]

41. They won't be finalized for a few days, maybe a week

Mostly because "your girl" is threatening legal action in order to delay them so she can grab the news cycle with her partial "win".

[NMMatt]

65. CNN doesn't have up to date TX primary (Clinton +4) and OH (Clinton +10) numbers

Their early assignments are skewed in her favor.

[DerekJ]

17. Math

Actually the number of delegates in Texas changed to 65 Clinton 61 Obama. And I calculated the ratio of the caucus ratio to be 55.3% Obama 44.7% Hillary, giving Obama a lead of about 6 delegates instead of 7. Total lead is Clinton +4 delegates total.
Now, I am a neutral source (Canadian) so don’t start ripping my head off.

That being said, a 4 delegate lead is a shockingly small number, that doesn’t affect the race whatsoever.

[aquart]

35. Oh, but it does. Three out of four ain't bad.

Three out of four after eleven losses is a COMEBACK!!!!

Perception is all.

[jgraz]

48. "Perception is all"

Holy shit, Obama's running against Leni Riefenstahl!

[DerekJ]

50. Right, but....

I am an engineer; I deal with numbers not perceptions.

A small disclaimer however, my numbers are based on Dailykos Ohio delegate estimation. If that is wrong, the lead I stated will also be wrong.

Again, I could care less who wins, I found a math game, I decided to tackle it. That’s it.

[BringBigDogBack]

19. Nice.

[Yossariant]

46. Kos, like the rest of last night's losers, can take consolation wherever he can find it.

[mattclearing]

49. Last night's losers?

That's pretty harsh. We're all on the same team here. Team D.

[Yossariant]

51. That has not been my experience or observation here. Maybe you should read some threads.

[mattclearing]

54. I've read a lot. We've all been pretty contentious.

Some of us aren't here for the long haul, and others of us just don't care what ridiculous things they say, and that's fine, it's the Internet and all.

Those of us who are going to stick around after we have a nominee can try to remember what side we're on.

[Yossariant]

57. Good point. You're right. This forum has been pure hell for Clinton supporters

and I do know, when I'm not being furious, that this forum does not represent DU.

It's normally a great site.

Sorry.

[mattclearing]

58. 'sokay.

Yesterday I was all full of piss and vinegar, sensing that the end was near...but now the prospect of another five months of this insanity has sapped the fight from me. Can't we all just get along?

[Scurrilous]

59. K & R

:thumbsup:

[davidpdx]

61. Actually for the day Hillary netted 20 delegates

Not counting the Texas Caucus.

March 4th totals in terms of delegates netted for Hillary Clinton:

Ohio +15
RI +4
VT -3
TX (primary) +4
TX (caucus) still counting

Net March 4th total (without the TX caucus) +20 delegates


The delegate totals still don't favor Clinton.