The media is spinning a big win for Hillary out of a narrow must-win victory. Here's what changed:

[ProSense]

Nothing!

When the media says "big win," they mean she didn't lose. The fact is she can't catch Obama in the delegate count even in rose-colored glasses.

Remember Hillary needed to win both Ohio and Texas by significant margins, 15 to 20 points, to put a dent in Obama's lead.

Hillary won Ohio, but it wasn't a blowout 54% to 44%. She squeezed out a win in Texas, 51% to 48%, the state she absolutely had to win. In fact, winning Texas by only three points, does nothing for Hillary. The delegates break for Obama.

Actually, it does do something for her. A loss in Texas would have removed even the perception that she had a chance. Winning keeps the perception, albeit unrealistic, going. It enables her to continue fighting the nasty fight.

Imagine, all that negative campaigning, and all she got was a perception advantage, which could have translated into a real advantage if she could make a dent in Obama's delegate lead, but she can't. It would also require that people continue to accept nasty campaigning and that Hillary not be exposed for her negative tactics. That's highly unlikely. People are already showing signs they're turn off. Her tactics also created the perception among the majortiy of voters in both Ohio and Texas that she is running an unfair (nasty) campaign. Last minute sways, but time is now on Obama's side.

Hillary needed to win big and didn't.

Hillary made no dent in Obama's pledged delegate lead

Obama leads in total delegates.

Obama leads in the popular vote

Even if Hillary wins big in PA by a 20% margin and Puerto Rico by a 60% margin she will still be nearly 100 delegates behind.

So welcome to the next round of fighting.




edited word correction, typo

[tekisui]

1. It is her chance to leave on a high note, she should take it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Why Should She Take It?

I correctly predicted she would take OH, TX, and RI...

I will now predict:


She will go on to win KY, WV, IN, PA, and PR... By the time the primary season is over she will be trailing Obama by less than one hundred delegates but will be beating him in nat'l polls by a significant margin...More importantly, she will be polling better against McCain than him...

What happens after that I am not ready to predict yet...

[lapfog_1]

18. Hillary will not win IN.

Bank on it.

And beware of the backlash that is coming, now that Hillary is seen as the "front runner" again.

(Perception cuts both ways)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. If It Becomes A Food Fight My Money Is On Hillary

She is an incredibly tough and thick skinned person...

[lapfog_1]

33. Well, she IS nasty, I'll give you that.

But I'm kinda tired of people who will do anything to win. We've had a bellyful from the repukes, I don't really want to continue the trend only with someone that has a D after their names.

[jefferson_dem]

34. If she loses the pledged delegate count but the supers hand her the nomination...

and you support that...will you still claim to be a "democrat" (small d)?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. I Don't Have The Answer

But if my scenario plays out the Democrats have a dilemma on their hands...

I think new primaries not caucuses in MI and FL would provide some clarity...

[JackORoses]

65. We already have clarity. Obama has an insurmountable Delegate lead.

The only thing you consider clear is a Hillary win. As long as Obama's winning, it's all blurry to you for some reason.

It has become clear to me that you are not really bound by any principles as I imagined,
you are bound to Hillary.

[karynnj]

45. I agree - Indiana is not Ohio

I haven't lived in Indiana for years - in fact, I left when it had 2 Democratic Senators, Bayh (far more liberal than his son) and Hartke, both winners due to who they were, not because they matched the political make-up of the state. But somethings don't change.

A large part of the DEMOCRATIC population in Indiana is in Lake county, which is on the Illinois border, Indianapolis, and Bloomington (Indiana University). Most of the people in rural areas are very Republican - unlike in Ohio where many were Democrats.

[tekisui]

20. I don't think she'll win IN, or PA.

We'll see about KY and WV. She will be trailing by more than 100 heading to the COnvention, and she will be trailing popular vote. THe superD's will break for Obama.

She can leave now, or lose at the COnvention.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I Would Literally Bet My Home And Car She Takes PA

Since that's unlikely how about a verifiable $100.00 wager with the loser donating to the winner's favorite charity...

[tekisui]

23. I'm all tapped out.

I can go $20.00

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. On

Please remind me...

You don't have to if you don't want to...

Actually, this primary season is easy to game out...

I just can't game out what happens at the Convention...I suspect there is going to be a lot of pressure on them to share the ticket no matter how much emnity there is between them...

Neither can afford alienating the other half of the party...

Or by "trying to split the baby" they rip him apart...

[tekisui]

31. The longer it goes, the greater the pressure to unify.

THey are each pulling in huge numbers of voters. I am having a hard time seeing a winner without both, but I also have a hard time seeing them agree to who's on top.

Excitement will follow whatever happens.

[lapfog_1]

37. I don't see either of them doing the "split ticket deal"

which would be on the bottom???

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. I Suspect It Would Have To Be Hillary

Because even in the rosiest of scenarioes she will have less votes and delegates than Obama, even if it's not much...

I'm not suggesting it's the most balanced ticket but it would unify the party and if the Dems can start with 90% of the African American vote and 70% of the Latino vote that's a sweet place to start from....

[lapfog_1]

53. Hillary won't do that.

Because that would mean 8 more years until her chance to run for President (unless the unity ticket tanks in this election).

Hillary would then be near 70 herself... and I don't think she believes right now that it's possible for her to run in 2016.

Of course, she could run again in 2012 if McCain wins... but beating an incumbent is much harder than than running for it this year).

This year is SO unique. No President or Vice President, current or former, is running for the office. Completely open. Unlikely to happen again for very long time

[lapfog_1]

36. hillary wins PA.

The Ohio win will be repeated there.

But I don't think she wins any contest 60-40 of the remaining contests. Her best shot at that was Ohio and PA. She could only manage a 10 to 12 point win in Ohio, I don't really think she will do much better than that in PA.

End of the primary season (her "wins" yesterday ensured we go to the convention now), OBama will still have an overall +140 delegate lead on Hillary.

Anything over 100 is not going to be overturned by the Supers, not if they want to return to their home districts with some skin left on their hairless bodies.

How they come to nominate Obama will be very interesting.

Oh... one other prediction. We lose the GE. Get used to President McCain.

[karynnj]

50. She seems to have the Democratic machines there

I would be reluctant to vote against them. What is clear is that I think many people will see this as a very dirty race. Long term, it may be seen that, in their greed to win, the Clintons gave us McCain - no matter which one wins the nomination.

[jefferson_dem]

35. Cook/RT has Obama up by nine over McCain in a poll out yesterday.

No head-to-head numbers for Hillary-McCain.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2008_poll_tpline_mar2.pdf

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. Let's Not Cherry Pick Polls

If you look at all the polls Obama is doing three to five points better against Grand Pa than Hillary is now...It's a long way to June 7th...

In my scenario he loses his nat'l lead to Clinton and does worse in head to head match ups than she does...

I could be all wet but I don't think so...

National security is huge... Even if you think her IWR vote was awful...

"It's better to be seen as strong and wrong than weak and right."

[awaysidetraveler]

51. Because her victories are Pyrric, and if we don't stop this fight we'll get slaughtered in the GE.

Hillary gained 1 delegate over Obama in Texas.

Texas Primary: Clinton 64/ Obama 60
Texas Caucus: Obama 35/ Clinton 32

Hillary gained 15 delegates over Obama in Ohio

Ohio Primary Clinton 77/ Obama 62/ Edwards 2

The Vermont and RI Primaries canceled one another out.

Vermont Primary: Obama 9/ Clinton 6

Rhode Island Primary: Clinton 12/Obama 9

Of course, the real problem is the reporting, which is rallying HRC's base for no purpose.

Let's say that she does go on to win in all the states you just mentioned: an assertion with no basis that I can see.

The net gain she would need per race is 10 delegates each, and those states simply don't have that many delegates to yeild
in this closely fought election.

Clinton won, but it's a Pyrric victory. Now it's time for peace talks so that both sides of this debate don't get slaughtered
in the general election.

[JackORoses]

64. so she will be trailing by a hundred pledged delegates, she will lose.

Why drag this out?

I know you understand the Math.
Do you place all your hopes in the MI-FL-PoachedDelegate scheme?

[grantcart]

63. She is taking in a million dollars a day she will continue the charade

for a while

[Avalux]

2. Let's hope we hear from the superdelegates over the next few days.

Hillary's getting huge help from the media in spinning this even though she will not gain in delegates.

[leftofcool]

3. Ohio

is a big win. Take Ohio, take the nation.

[skipos]

5. Tell that to Dukakis.

He, like Hillary, won the OH primary. How did that work out for him?

[MonkeyFunk]

12. He got the nomination, didn't he?

[ingac70]

16. And trounced in the GE. n/t.

[MonkeyFunk]

19. so what?

Right now she's trying to win the nomination. Winning Ohio was a big victory for her.

[ingac70]

39. The post said take Ohio, take the nation....

In case you weren't paying attention.

[berni_mccoy]

41. It's meaningless if it doesn't net you an increase in delegates. She's still behind in popular vote

and number of states won to boot.

[kenfrequed]

62. Hmm

There have been demographic changes the last few years. That coupled with the idiotic bumping up of all the primaries sort of deflates Ohio's "Bell-weather-ness"

But I really don't have a horse in the race any longer and don't really care which of these candidates wins any longer. Even if I did, Minnesota cast its lot on Super-Tuesday already.

[skipos]

26. Was he behind by 150 pledged delegates?

If so, you have a point. If not, this is as irrelevant as Bill Clinton's "Jesse Jackson won SC too" point.

[ingac70]

15. In the GE....

Kerry won the Ohio primary in '04. Gore won it in '00 and neither won it in the GE.

[Window]

29. In the GE, dear. In the GE. Or is that, "as far as you know."

[ChairmanAgnostic]

4. she doesn't know what a high road is. but that aside, her attacks on

Obama continue to temper him, to prepare him for the real contest - the swiftboating, rovian, assholes of the GOP.

[Medusa]

6. Yeah sure the media are all "against" poor little

defenseless Hillary. BULLSHIT! Or they'd be reporting the truth, not spinning this as some huge win for her. Why aren't they talking delegate counts this morning?

[Apollo11]

7. Oh yeah, the media is totally "in the tank" for Hillary.

Did you also complain when the media made a big deal out of Obama winning? :eyes:

[Window]

32. No. No one thinks the media is "in the tank" for Hillary. In fact, they, llike most people can't

stand her. They like a good fight and they want *gasp* the RATINGS. Period.

[C_U_L8R]

8. she's no closer to winning than yesterday

they just put a pause on the loss.
the trick will be if they can successfully spin it into actual delegates
but as of this morning, they are still losing to Obama. That's a plain fact.

[mirrera]

9. I agree!

All she did was not get blown out. She should do the math and get out. Now the Republicans will have nothing to do but vote in open primaries. How many of those are left? Could the Republicans swell her popular vote numbers enough to sway super d's?

[nonconformist]

10. Neither have enough pledged delegates... it will come down to superdelegates.

Which are heavily influenced by momentum, which is on Hillary's side now.

Also, a president has never won that didn't also win Ohio in the primary.

[mirrera]

14. 1 delegate gain is momentum? I would call that treading water...n/t

[Inuca]

24. If the SDs will tip the balance

in favor of the candidate that does NOT have the largest number of pledged delegates, you can say goodbye to the dem party! The good news is that most of them are smart people and will not do it.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

48. Because the nominee is usually already decided by Ohio.

On both sides.

The Ohio talking point is deceiving.

[moondust]

13. Any media mentioning the 65% wins she needed?

I didn't think so.

[pdxmom]

17. The spin is amazing. She's being touted as "the comeback kid", without one

word about the fact that she had large leads as little as two weeks ago. So she won, but she bled support and won by less than anticipated. How is that a comeback?

[Scurrilous]

21. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Window]

25. I absolutely agree ProSense.

It's the SPIN. I've responded and said that until I'm blue in the face, but to no avail. It is what it is.




Peace:thumbsup:

[ruggerson]

27. Be sane, man. Obama outspent her 3 to 1 in some places

and she still won double digits in Ohio, a landslide in RI and a hard fought victory in TX.

Any way a rational person spins this, it was a huge night for Hillary Clinton.

She is in strong position now to come into the convention with a majority of the popular vote count.

Remember.

Independents and Republicans can't vote in Penn.

[lapfog_1]

38. And for all that...

she is going to gain what... 1 delegate... 5 delegates? No more than that.

There is still the chance that she could come out of yesterday LOSING by a delegate or two.

I don't care what happens in PA... she can't win BIG enough in the rest of the contests to catch OBama now. No way. She isn't even going to get it close.

She goes to the convention down 130 to 140. The Supers will NOT overturn that margin. Period.

[misslauren66]

58. A double digit win in Ohio, but just barely.

54-44 isn't exactly a landslide. Hillary basically met expectations in terms of the results and, as previously stated, didn't gain delegates. You make an excellent point though regarding the popular vote, which I haven't tracked. I'd be interested to see where that stands.

[speedoo]

40. Actually, ProSense, there was one very significant change....

and that is, the calendar.

Yesterday was Hillary's last big opportunity to significantly reduce Obama's delegate lead and she failed.

Yesterday, according to Mark Penn, Hillary was supposed to catch up. She failed completely... may have even allowed Obama to add slightly to his lead.

And now time is definitely on Obama's side, as a week from today he will almost certainly have added to his lead after the Wyoming and Mississippi primaries.

[JCMach1]

44. Off the mark in the OP- It IS about perceptions at this point because neither candidate can win

the nomination outright.

[Sparkly]

47. Thank goodness -- if it's over, everybody on DU can relax now.

If Obama's got it in the bag, there's no need to keep bashing Clinton.

[ProSense]

54. Not over,

Hillary still plans to fight, and it's bound to get even nastier.

[Voice for Peace]

49. Thank you. Keep these posts coming. nt

[suston96]

52. Ya gotta love it - now it's all about the delegate count...For months...

..it was all about the states that Obama won. The delegates won has ten different versions. Wonder which one is correct?

Hillary has won the big states - the ones the Democratic nominee has to win in the GE.

[ProSense]

55. It's still about the states Obama won, the delegate count and the popular vote

Obama 27 states, Hillary 14

[ORDem]

56. The only thing that changed is that HRC has 4 states less in which

to close the delegate gap. Ain't gonna happen.

:dem:

[suston96]

57. Like I said....who ya gonna trust...? Which delegate list do you think is right? nt

Super delegates can waffle until the day of the convention. The pledged delegates must vote for their pledged candidate in the first round at the convention. Then they can do whatever they want.

[ProSense]

59. Hillary Xeroxes Bush

Clinton: Campaign has 'turned a corner'

Hillary and Bush, turning corners and ending up where they started.

[ProSense]

60. Superdelegate: Dayton Mayor Endorses Barack Obama

Dayton Mayor Endorses Barack Obama

03/05/2008 10:40:21

DAYTON, Ohio -- Mirroring the unofficial results of the Democratic Presidential race in Montgomery County, Dayton Mayor Rhine McLin today announced her endorsement of Illinois Senator Barack Obama.

Despite a win statewide by New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, in Montgomery County, the results told a different tale with Obama beating Clinton by over 10,000 votes.

In a morning interview on CNN, McLin said the decision of Dayton and Montgomery County voters would determine how she used her superdelagate vote.

And McLin said she was impressed with Ohio's apparent record voter turnout.

[ProSense]

61. Clinton stumbles on Ohio history

Clinton stumbles on Ohio history

"No person has ever won the White House without winning the Ohio primary, in either party...Somehow the people of Ohio end up picking the winners."
--Hillary Clinton, interview with Columbus, Ohio, TV station, March 4, 2008.

It has become part of political mythology that you cannot win the presidency without carrying Ohio. (Actually John Kennedy pulled off this feat in 1960, winning the general election even though he lost Ohio by 273,000 votes.) But can you win the presidency without winning your party's Ohio primary? History suggests that Hillary Clinton is wrong on this point.

more

[ProSense]

66. "Obama leads McCain by 12 percentage points -- 52 percent to 40 percent"

Republican McCain trails Clinton and Obama: poll

Wed Mar 5

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain trails Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in hypothetical matchups, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released on Wednesday.

Illinois Sen. Obama leads McCain by 12 percentage points -- 52 percent to 40 percent; New York Sen. Clinton leads McCain by 6 points -- 50 percent to 44 percent, the poll found.

McCain, an Arizona senator, has turned his attention to the November 4 general election after clinching his party's nomination on Tuesday night. Clinton and Obama are still locked in a close battle for the Democratic nomination.

McCain, endorsed by U.S. President George W. Bush, fares poorly against Clinton and Obama among Americans who disapprove of the president and Americans opposing the war, The Washington Post said.

link

[ProSense]

67. More hype!