Detailed Delegate Breakdown for 3/4

[mohc]

Update: New TX Caucus numbers

Summary
State: Obama - Clinton
Ohio: 66 - 75
Rhode Island: 8 - 13
Texas: 98 - 95
Vermont: 9 - 6
Total: 181 - 189

Using the percentages by district and state in the official sources the delegate breakdown by district will be as follows.

Ohio Source
District: Obama - Clinton
1: 2 - 2
2: 2 - 2
3: 3 - 2
4: 2 - 2
5: 2 - 2
6: 1 - 4
7: 2 - 2
8: 2 - 2
9: 3 - 3
10: 2 - 4
11: 6 - 2
12: 3 - 2
13: 3 - 3
14: 2 - 4
15: 2 - 2
16: 2 - 3
17: 3 - 4
18: 2 - 3
Total District: 44 - 48
PLEO: 8 - 10
At-large: 14 - 17
Total State: 66 - 75

Rhode Island Source
Total District: 5 - 8
PLEO: 1 - 2
At-large: 2 - 3
Total State: 8 - 13

Texas Source
1: 2 - 2
2: 2 - 2
3: 1 - 3
4: 2 - 2
5: 2 - 2
6: 1 - 2
7: 2 - 1
8: 2 - 2
9: 2 - 1
10: 3 - 2
11: 2 - 2
12: 2 - 2
13: 5 - 2
14: 5 - 3
15: 2 - 2
16: 2 - 2
17: 3 - 2
18: 2 - 2
19: 1 - 3
20: 1 - 3
21: 1 - 3
22: 1 - 2
23: 4 - 2
24: 1 - 2
25: 3 - 3
26: 2 - 2
27: 1 - 2
28: 1 - 2
29: 1 - 2
30: 1 - 2
31: 1 - 1
Total District: 61 - 65
PLEO: 14 - 11 (Based on preliminary caucus results)
At-large: 23 - 19 (Based on preliminary caucus results)
Total State: 98 - 95
The caucus is only at 34% reporting so the numbers there could change quite a bit.

Vermont Source
Total District: 6 - 4
PLEO: 1 - 1
At-large: 2 - 1
Total State: 9 - 6

[MadBadger]

1. I can see those results happening.

[mohc]

3. Most of these numbers are final

Both Rhode Island and Vermont are completely settled. The Texas district numbers are mostly set, only districts 19, 20, and 27 have pending precincts. Only district 19 could change, from 1 - 3 to 2 - 2, but it is not likely. As I stated in the OP, the caucus results are still quite preliminary so the PLEO and At-large numbers could change drastically. The Ohio numbers are mostly settled too, with 96% reporting, but there are a few districts that could change. They do not break down the precincts reporting percentage by district though so there is no way for me to identify them.

[kevsand]

2. Let's see now... four states... net gain of twelve delegates...

At that rate, Hillary only needs another forty or so more states. Oh, wait, there's only twelve left. Hmmm...

[mohc]

7. I updated the caucus numbers

Down to 8 delegate lead.

[rocktivity]

4. Hillary needed to pull five 60%-plus totals from the 3/4 primaries and caucus

She pulled only one, and she didn't come close to burying Obama in Texas. Mission NOT accomplished.

:headbang:
rocknation

[underpants]

5. ROCK ON!

[Lerkfish]

8. what is that gang sign she's flashing?

bloods? crips?

:)

[Stephanie]

6. She's moved the goalposts so often she doesn't know where to find them now.

[rocktivity]

15. This post needs a little updating--as of 10:37PM March 5 EST on CNN.com

Hillary needed to pull five 60%-plus totals from the 3/4 primaries and caucus. She pulled only one NONE, and she didn't come close to burying Obama in Texas--HER LEAD IS ONLY TWO PER CENT. Mission NOT accomplished.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Dawgs]

9. Thanks.

Any difference less than 10 is not good for Hillary.

[jefferson_dem]

10. Thanks. So, based on these calculations, Obama actually "won" TX (netting three more delegates).

Game over. :thumbsup:

Would you mind updating this table if / when the numbers change? If you have time...

[mohc]

13. The caucus numbers are coming in very slowly

They originally said the numbers might not be final for 3 days, but hopefully they can get most of it done today. My one concern from the TX results. This is going to be a very obvious display of Clinton winning a primary and then Obama performing much better in a caucus. This is not like Washington where the primary did not matter, and could easily be discounted. Both the primary and caucus mattered and Clinton pulled out a slim primary win but looks to be losing the caucus by a decent margin. I will update the numbers after more come in.

[Hope And Change]

11. Thanks mohc for the info and the update.K&R.

:toast:

[Hamlette]

12. thanks for this...there is so much misinformation out there

NYTimes this AM has Hill up by 27 last night. They have Obama winning 88 and Hill winning 115. Even if you take out both caucus votes he gets 144 to her 159. I can't figure out how they are counting it.

[mohc]

14. For a little perspective.

Obama netted 12 delegates from Idaho.

Clinton will net 8 delegates, or less if the caucus numbers hold up, from OH, RI, TX, and VT.

In the end this race will be decided by delegates, not arguments of who won where. Its a long way to Pennsylvania, with stops in Obama-favored Wyoming and Mississippi along the way. The biggest thing Clinton won from 3/4 was momentum, and it will be hard to sustain it for 7 weeks especially with WY and MS letting some wind out of the sails. Clinton did what she needed to do to stay in the race, but will it be enough to have a realistic chance at the nomination after PA votes?