Will either Clinton or Obama get to 2025 Delegates before the convention?

[onehandle]

Poll question: Will either Clinton or Obama get to 2025 Delegates before the convention?

Let's test DU's logic skills.

[mohc]

1. It's only 2024 now.

And obviously one of them has to eventually, as the question was not qualified with "on the first ballot".

[onehandle]

2. Sorry I didn't make it clear. We're still in the Primary phase. nt

[mohc]

4. With that clarification

I would say that most likely one or the other will have 2024 well before the convention. At the very latest, Dean and other party leaders are going to force superdelegates to voice their position after the final contest in Puerto Rico. Edwards will still have 12 delegates from NH and SC (his Iowa delegates will probably go to one or the other candidates at the Iowa convention). Other than that all delegates will be either for Clinton or Obama. So unless the gap is less than 12 delegates, one of them will be at or above 2024. Some might argue that you can not count superdelegates towards the count as they can change their minds. While this is true, pledged delegates are also allowed to change their minds, so it really does not make a difference. Most likely, once it is known which candidate will be above 2024, a large number of superdelegates will move to that side to put a bit of a buffer to the lead.

[onehandle]

5. I don't think that will happen without an agreement between Barack and Hillary.

Superdelegates will be understandably hesitant to sway the vote beyond the popular vote without consent.

Either the two candidates get together Now or this goes to the convention.

Which would be fine with me, because we could end up with Edwards or Gore. Theoretically.

[mohc]

7. So you think the SDs

would be more likely to pick someone besides Obama or Clinton, which would clearly "sway the vote beyond the popular vote without consent", than they would be to just pick one of the two? The SDs will all either declare for Clinton, Obama, or that they want someone else. It is far more likely they will pick one of the two main candidates than they are to go out on their own. Effectively, convention balloting begins once all the pledged delegates are settled. The SDs will basically be taking unofficial ballots at the very least in private until a way for one of the two to reach 2024 happens, the party will make them. They are not going to let it wait until the convention.

[onehandle]

8. I don't think this will go to the convention.

Clinton and Obama will have to work this out.

If not, that tells me why neither was my first choice.

And anything could happen at the convention, but yes it would be very unlikely that the SDs would pick beyond the remaining two.

[RoadRage]

3. Mathmatically - I think it's nearly impossible for both

without Superdelegates. And, Superdelegates who push for one candidate over the other even if they TECHNICALLY can without the "vote" of the people will be commiting political suicide.

Clinton supporters - if Obama were behind and had only won 13 - 15 states.. had less popular vote, but the superdelegates pushed him over the top to give him the nomination, be honest. Would you feel any inclination to vote for him? No.. probably not. Some of you would to keep McCain out of the race.. but many more would not out of spite and pure hatered.

So, why would Obama supporters be any different? Well, they wouldn't. Going against the vote of the people is party suicide, and most of these super delegates understand that.

[Tarc]

6. Statistically improbable

This is going to the superdelegates, who have a lot to chew on regarding what has transpired over the last week.

[scheming daemons]

9. No... they'll chew on everything that's happened over many MONTHS.....

...since the convention isn't until August.

Who knows what will happen between now and PA, let alone between now and August.

By the time PA rolls around.. this past week will be ancient history.

[Tarc]

10. Better cross your fingers and "hope", kiddo.

Meanwhile I'll fire up the video feed and watch this again, for the chuckles;

http://youtube.com/watch?v=xcR6enqJZJ8