The bottom line is this: Hillary's ONLY victory scenario is scorched earth in Denver

[Alhena]

There is no disputing this fact any longer- even assuming that Florida and Michigan (which Jesse Jackson won years ago) have repeat primaries, Obama will still have 75 or so more pledged delegates than Hillary even under the rosiest scenario for her.

That means that the only victory scenario that Hillary can offer the party is one where she seeks superdelegate nullification of the pledged delegates at the Denver convention. And she will have to do that in the teeth of the hordes of young and passionate Obama supporters who will converge on Denver if they suspect their votes might be nullified. The party can not even contemplate this kind of victory scenario, especially with the convention being unusually close to November this year.

Obama, by contrast, can offer a winning scenario right now. He is well ahead in the delegates, which will give the uncommitted superdelegates the political cover to rally behind him in the interests of having a nominee. Something like this is clearly in the works already- as noted by Tom Brokaw with his reference to 50 superdelegates about to break for Obama. I expect that Obama will wait until his big win in Mississippi on March 11 to make his move- expect massive superdelegate defections to Obama by then, if not this week. Once Obama's superdelegate margin gets big enough, he will be the presumptive nominee in everyone's eyes, even if Hillary decides to fight on.

[redqueen]

1. Did you see this?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4896254

[Alhena]

4. The superdelegates know this- hence they will step in

[MNDemNY]

2. Then, scorched earth it shall be.

[Alhena]

3. No it won't- the superdelegates won't allow it. Her own will desert her if they see

that she's trying to take the party down with her.

[MNDemNY]

9. No, they will be the ones setting the fire.

[ClassWarrior]

5. "We need Barack Obama bloodied up politically." - Rush Limbaugh

NGU.

[barb162]

16. ANd tomorrow he'll probably say he needsClinton bloodied up. So?

[ClassWarrior]

18. So? So what's wrong with both Dems bloodied up? Nothing if you support McBush.

NGU.

[barb162]

21. Is Rush running the Democratic show or something??

IS there something wrong with an active race?

[ClassWarrior]

22. Ahhh, so you consider Rush's smears a healthy element in "an active race?"

Why are you defending him so vigorously?

NGU.

[ClassWarrior]

23. And John W. McCain has experience...

...while our fellow Dem has "a speech?" Was that okay with you too?

NGU.

[hogwyld]

12. Hello President McCain

I now see that Hillary cares only about herself, not the party at large. She'll set this party back 20 years with her antics.

[barb162]

14. Hello President Clinton

Let Obama drop out; Hillary has the momentum.

[papau]

13. I rather like the term-:-)- indeed the "old country" "never forget/never forgive" & "betrayed once &

and enemy forever" are familiar

and I understand spending years being friends and helping someone - only to be less than rewarded by that person later on - and how one can't help remembering that for a long time.

but I called that business relationships.

I hope politics is more forgiving.

[Tarc]

6. This tired bullshit again? A superdelegate vote is not "nullification"

It is simply the second tier of a two-tiered voting process. Whining about it this far into the game just makes O-Bots look like a bunch of jackasses.

[MNDemNY]

7. They embrace the rules when they are benefited, scorn them when they are not.

[Alhena]

11. The kids who will be rioting in Denver won't see it that way

[papau]

15. rioting in Denver? - with an IPOD in their ear?

[barb162]

19. And a nicely foamed hot Starbucks in their hands? LOL

[barb162]

17. Why will they be rioting?

And how do you know anyone will be rioting?

[Tarc]

26. Ahh, yes; when you can't lie your way to an election win

or make endless empty promises or play the race card to your heart's content, there's only one thing to fall back on, apparently; threats of violence. :eyes:

[rodeodance]

8. Obama should step aside now.

[barb162]

20. There ya' go! She blew him out of the water yesterday

despite his massively outspending her.

[rodeodance]

24. His big $$ was wasted:-)

[MessiahRp]

25. LOL "blew him out of the water".

A +1 net delegate pickup overall and a -5 delegate loss in Texas is not "blowing him out of the water".

Hillary 185, Obama 184. She gained one whole delegate.

Get a grip on reality here.

Rp

[IndianaJones]

10. Worked for Sherman. nt.