The ORIGINAL storyline was that Hillary had to win at least 65% in TX AND OH to remain competitive..

[jenmito]

But today, even though she just sqeaked out a win in TX with 51% (while she's losing the caucus part), and got 54% in OH, the media is going along with Hillary's new script that this is HUGE, that this "resets the game," that the media was all wrong (even though the polls were just about exactly right), and that this almost ASSURES a "unity ticket." Even Chuck Todd, who was the one constantly showing the numbers (and why Hillary would have to win BIG), is talking like the rest of the media. What's up?

[Justitia]

1. It keeps them gainfully employed. -eom

[Maven]

2. Whose storyline?

Your storyline?

[jenmito]

6. No-the FACTUAL storyline.

[Maven]

17. LOL.

OK. See you in PA.

[aquart]

20. Define "factual." And give actual examples.

I need to be sure we use the same dictionary.

[jenmito]

27. Look at the delegate count. Nothing really changed. If she didn't win at least 65% of the

delegates, it would be nearly impossible for her to come back.

[aquart]

54. And YET, the American people decided not to count her out.

But that, of course, means nothing to you.

[jenmito]

69. Hillary used slimy tactics to move the poll numbers BEFORE the primary, so it should've been no

surprise that she won those states, but it was portrayed as, "We all got it wrong again!"

[BenDavid]

3. the clinton campaign never said they had to win by that big

a percentage. That was the whore media saying this....the whoremedia enjoys trying to run the clinton campaign.It is going to be a great ride through April and May....

[jenmito]

11. Of course the Clinton camp never said that. They set the bar as low as possible.

[dbonds]

15. It wasn't either a campaign or the media, it was the math that said that.

[aquart]

55. But math doesn't vote. People vote. And LOOKEE what they did.

Or are you saying our votes don't matter and just give everything to Mr. Entitled-to-Win?

[dbonds]

60. Exactly, look at what happenned.

Hillary can't overtake Obama's lead at this point. And her super delegate lead is evaporating. So the only hope is overturning the voting at the convention.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

4. Don't say she's won in Texas yet.

She ain't.

[aquart]

13. Right. Only the primary. Where are the caucus numbers?

[jenmito]

21. They're still going and probably won't be finished counting for days or more.

But he's winning so far.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

22. Obama:52 - 48. 37% counted.

Slow process, may take until friday.

[aquart]

35. 37%? They managed to count another whole percent?

Hallelujah! That's the most movement since last night. What I really need to know is who they counted first? Houston? Austin? or El Paso? Makes a difference.

Hey, I just noticed, Val Verde finally came in at 61% for Hillary. What took them so long?

[jenmito]

87. Right now Obama has 56% in the TX caucuses with 39% counted! Doesn't that mean

Obama may end up WINNING TX?

[jenmito]

14. But she has 51%. n/t

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

19. Obama's leading by four in the caucus.

Obama could very well pick up more delegates, meaning he'd win Texas.

[aquart]

29. With 36% counted. At 12% he was leading by ten.

What is MOST interesting? The media have refused to call the caucuses. Now why is that? No caucus exit polls?

Does Texas have caucuses in those square, unpopulated counties up top? Or does it only have them in the cities?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

31. Why haven't they called?

I assume because it's close and there haven't been enough counted.

:shrug:

[mirrera]

32. Where can I see Texas numbers?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

36. CNN.com

That's where I saw them.

There are probably much better places.

[jenmito]

33. I understand. But again, the media perception is that Hillary won and won shockingly BIG.

:wtf:

[anamandujano]

42. There were about 200-250 people in my caucus. The idea that

winning the caucuses would give him a win in Texas is ridiculous.

THEY ARE JUST NOT REPRESENTATIVE.

[aquart]

45. Where was your caucus?

[anamandujano]

77. Bexar County, San Antonio

There was a huge line still voting when I arrived for the caucus. We had to wait an hour before starting so that everyone could vote.

A very small percentage of those in that voting line came into the caucus room. They all went home to dinner.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

46. Why?

"THEY ARE JUST NOT REPRESENTATIVE."

Actually they are, and they're weighted in Obama's favor.

"winning the caucuses would give him a win in Texas is ridiculous."

Why do you say that? Whoever wins the most delegates wins the only thing that's important.

[aquart]

57. "Weighted in Obama's favor." Yep. Sounds fair.

So the popular vote is nothing and only delegate count matters? Is that the Obama position, or merely yours?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

81. Caucuses are a popular vote too.

And these caucuses are weighted in favor of heavily democratic districts, which is why it favors Obama.

So quit playing dumb.

[jenmito]

88. It was Mark Penn's position weeks ago. n/t

[mirrera]

95. Its the Democratic party's position...

They are both running as Democrats and in Maine Caucuses are what we have. Believe me they count. People raising their hands in front of their neighbors strikes me as a lot more democratic than scanning a sheet into a computerized counter and then tabulating it on a PC in a program whose data base has no security. Painting the caucuses as unimportant is misinformation. Painting the delegates as not being part of the popular vote is also misleading. It is a system that was in place before either Barack or hillary started their run. Neither of them chose to run as an independant. Both of them can work to change the rules for next time at the convention. Delegates are what win this primary no matter how many Hillary supporters go LOL. He is also ahead in the popular vote. Not by much but enough so that Hillary can't claim to be... unless she is counting MI and FLA, again against the rules they all agreed to. Obama has no problem having them hold a re-count, Hillary does. Many people did not vote because they were told they had no delegates. Delegates=votes at the convention- 2024 or 5 delegates wins the primary.

[dbonds]

102. Right.

The US has always been a representative democracy. That means the people don't vote directly. If you want to change the system thats fine, we can work on a new constitution after the election. But the founding fathers of the US didn't set it up for us to directly vote on anything.

[anamandujano]

79. She won the Texas primary. So, they will award delegates on the

flimsy number of caucus voters. He gets delegates. Whoop-de-doo!

He can't get to the magical number of 2025, and THAT is the only thing that matters.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

83. The 2025 "magic number" doesn't matter at all.

It hasn't mattered for weeks. The only thing that matters now is the number of pledged delegates, and Obama's lead is insurmountable.

[buff2]

34. It's already been called

deal with it. Don't be a sore loser.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

39. Only the primary, the caucus is still being counted, 47 delegates left to seat.

Pay attention. Don't be naive.

[buff2]

41. Hillary will get those

The people are speaking...WE DON'T WANT OBAMA.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

44. Obama's up by four.

I guess we'll see.

[aquart]

53. Not necessarily. Depends on how the caucuses are distributed.

Obama took the big (for Texas) cities. Hillary won EVERYWHERE ELSE IN TEXAS. (Except for Brewster County, what's up with them?) You gotta see that map.

<http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX>

[Seen the light]

5. It's not surprising the media wants a long drawn out race

They're getting a ton of money out of this because of the increased viewership leading to more eyes watching those ads.

[Maddy McCall]

7. The DU story line? The Obama supporter story line?

LOL.

[jenmito]

37. The numerical storyline.

[Maddy McCall]

47. Stories are written by people. The people who created that story were Obama supporters.

[jenmito]

61. The numbers are the numbers. Hillary's no better off today than before the primaries yesterday.

[aquart]

65. EXCEPT for perception. And perception is all.

Which is why Obama people are racing around, desperately spinning a three-state loss into no biggie.

[Maddy McCall]

Exactly.

[jenmito]

72. Yeah. The perception that HILLARY wanted to portray.

[dbonds]

8. Change of script.

A couple weeks ago, TX and OH were Hillary's firewall. States that we sure wins where she at the time had a 20 point lead. Obama close that gap and almost over takes her in TX (still can in caucus votes) and now it is 'she stopped his momentum'. Of course doesn't help that the media ran with those kitchen sink attacks that had nothing behind them, he might have done even better.

[jenmito]

43. Exactly. He was 20 points behind! Now it's an "unexpected BIG win"?

Why does the media go along with the Clintons' script?

[aquart]

64. Weeks ago doesn't count. Today was supposed to end her campaign.

The eulogies have already been published. DID NOT HAPPEN. Perception is all. Now, you can desperately try to change that perception, but Obama was supposed to sweep Hillary into the dustbin yesterday. OOPS.

[dbonds]

70. Weeks ago was so long ago.

Riiiiiiight. The Eulogies as you call it, was part of the Clintonian script to lower expectations so that any win would be call a comback in a state that she should have won by 20 points.

[jenmito]

75. Not true. The last 48 hours before the primaries, Hillary regained her lead. And the media saw

that. But they kept with the "ending of her campaign" just so they could act like it was such a great big deal that she got 51% in the TX primary (and is losing the caucus). But the math said and STILL says she has a nearly impossible job to get more delegates than him.

[rinsd]

9. Yeah the Obama campaign's storyline!

:rofl:

[aquart]

10. No, honey. The original storyline was Today Hillary Gave Up.

Today was supposed to be her funeral. Eulogies have been published for days predicting her sad defeat.

Today was to have been Obama's official anointing. Oh, well. Messiah gonna have to wait a few days for that ascension.

[jenmito]

52. No, honey. The day of the primaries, the media's storyline was she had to win both...

just to "survive." But the numbers HAD her winning both states on the last day while the MATH said she had to win at least 65% of each state to even be competitive. She ended up winning by a razor thin margin and it was touted as a gigantic shocker.

[CountAllVotes]

12. the longer they can drag this out the better it is for them

meaning the media that is. Also, more contributions for Clinton et al.

BTW: Where are those tax returns Hillary?

On edit: Bill "Big Dog" Clinton said the exact same thing - big wins over 60% needed in both Texas and Ohio.

:kick:

[Tom Rinaldo]

16. That was always a bogus spin story line

Based on a presumption that Clinton had to win more pledged delegates than Obama to win, with the additional presumption that Florida and Michigan will not count and will not revote.

Some of us, not you obviously, saw that as media collusion with an effort by Obama to force Clinton out of the race early - by stampeding Super Delegates to Obama's side.

We don't have to agree on this, but I never bought that 65% threshold for Hillary nonsense pushed by the Obama camp. I knew she needed to win 3 out of 4 last night. We don't have to agree because we all have front row seats now to what happens next. Time will tell.

[jenmito]

56. I don't think that was spin...

They did the math. The math STILL strongly favors Obama. Nothing really changed. And if she continues sliming Obama, saying HE only has "a speech" while McCain has a lifetime of experience, that he's not a Muslim "as far as" she knows, etc., she'll hurt our chances in Nov.

[bleowheels]

18. It's "move the bar Wednesday" Don't you know that?

Sometimes, it's "move the bar Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday."

[dbonds]

25. Sometimes it moves twice a day.

[jenmito]

66. I knew YESTERDAY, BEFORE the results, that it would be played this way.

Even though the polls were showing Hillary leading again, they kept asking, "Will she be pressured to drop out?" So when she got her EXPECTED wins, they are calling her "the comeback kid."

[islandmkl]

23. the MSM can't figure out whether to make hay by bashing the candidate(s) mercilessly...

or whether to promote a 'close race' non-stop, which gives them more opportunities to cover meaningless 'major developments' affecting each campaign...

it's entertainment, that's all...and the MSM will do everything, 180° turnarounds are no big deal, do anything to keep the money rolling in...

[sandnsea]

24. Clinton media power

They have it, I keep saying. So ask yourself, why didn't they use this power to make the case against the invasion in March 2003.

[aquart]

67. The media that slavers over Obama? Yeah, lotta power there.

[jenmito]

76. I don't know what "slavers" is, but Obama got nothing but negative press two days before the

primaries, and Hillary got nothing but positive press.

[leftynyc]

26. That was Sen Obama's storyline

Maybe the media's but I never heard it from the Clinton campaign.

[mirrera]

28. This is what did in Edwards. He came in second in Iowa and the story was about her.

I laugh when she talks about bias!!! She is always the story. Good or bad she is the news because that is the story the media wants.

[aquart]

I cannot believe you still cling to this lie.

The depression on the faces of the pundits last night was hysterical. They were MISERABLE that Hillary was winning. But you gamely trot out this debunked trash and try to sell it as a buffet lunch.

[mirrera]

97. You are wrong. She is the GOP's only hope. n/t

[LulaMay]

30. Really? I thought it was that Obama was the new annointed King of Camelot

the man who couldn't lose.

[buff2]

38. Yeah.......

and he even had Ted Kennedy's support. Reality is finally setting in. :hi:

[cascadiance]

40. So WHAT pledged delegates is she going to get to switch?

or how many of the remaining states can she afford to get less than 60% of the vote?

Umm... Reality?

[LulaMay]

50. The ones who see that winning crucial states like Ohio and Fl means everything

[cascadiance]

59. And that they learned that one must cheat to win Florida, huh!

[LulaMay]

78. He ran commercials there, she didn't. Do FL over...she still win it.

[dbonds]

84. Thats a lie that he ran commercial there.

There was some on msnbc that went to the nation, but have you ever seen how few people watch cable news - less than a million nation wide. There might have been some bleed over from the ones he ran in GA where the signals carry a little over the Florida border, but that isn't campaigning in Florida and only reached a handful at best.

[islandmkl]

63. as compared to the pre-annointed Queen of Camelot II....

who tried on the crown about a year before the coronation...

[LulaMay]

80. I think you are required to check with Ted Kennedy before saying that.

[aquart]

68. OOPS.

[jenmito]

90. Did you watch tv the last two days before the primaries? It was all negative for Obama and all good

for Hillary. She still only got 51% in TX and is losing the TX caucuses by 12% so far.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

48. Time to move the Hillary "goalposts" - again!

[aquart]

73. Obama lost when he was confidently expected to win.

Spin it anyway you want, duckie. HE LOST.

[jenmito]

91. "confidently expected to win"? He was down in the polls the day before and the day of the primaries

He was expected to LOSE. Zogby was on C-Span with the numbers.

[jenmito]

92. Yup. And the media goes along with it. Every time.

[donheld]

49. Where did that original story line come from?

[NJmaverick]

51. At this point Hillary has two choices

Step down or destroy the party. She just lost her last chance to win the delegate counts.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

58. There was a story in today's NYT about CNN's ratings and the primaries...

The media wants to keep this going. The Repub nomination race is over, and wasn't very interesting to begin with. Clinton vs. Obama is giving the cable news shows A LOT to talk about.

And the fact is that Clinton isn't ready to drop out, she did better than mot people expected yesterday, and perhaps thinks she can still win it or hope for Obama to stumble badly. Who knows?

I suggested to someone that this is bad bad bad for the Dems, this infighting and indecision, but their response was that it's good because it keeps the Dem candidates -- one of which will be our nominee -- in the news cycle all the time. McCain who? Maybe that's true.

[aquart]

74. Political novice?

You ain't seen nothin' yet.

[jenmito]

86. Yeah, they DO want to keep it going, but I disagree that Hillary did better than

most people expected. The polls showed her leading by over 20 points, then Obama closed the gap, even led in a poll in TX, but then fell back in the final days after the Rezko and NAFTA things were pushed by the media and the Clintons. So SHE was EXPECTED to win according to the polls. But the media largely ignored those polls saying IF she lost one or both states, she'd possibly have to drop out. They did that IMO so they could run with this storyline they're running with today.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

62. MSM loves to see democrats in turmoil. Easier for them to spread their mis-information

and control public perception. Long live corporatism!

[AtomicKitten]

71. The Clintons moved those goalposts last week.

She can't wins so is trying to manipulate her way onto the ticket as VP.

Eff that.

[Bucky]

82. "Clinton has to win 65%" was always bogus math.

The tipping point is that to clear the 2025 delegate hurtle, Clinton has to win ~55% of the remaining dels and Obama has to win 45% of them.

Whoever came up with the 65% meme was letting a personal agenda hide the facts. That's a nice way of saying "they were lying."

[dbonds]

85. Please show your math.

I think you may be mixing super delegate in with the left over primary delegates. And the 65% number was based on before yesterdays primaries.

[dbonds]

101. Since you didn't show your math, I'll show mine

This is what Clinton needs to win as of today.



Clinton 1230
Obama 1384

727 pledged delegates now

1230 + (x*727) > 1384 + ((1-x)*727)

divide by 727

1.691884 + x > 1.903713 + 1 - x

1.691884 + x > 2.903713 - x


x > 1.2118294 - x

2x > 1.2118294

x > .605914


So Clinton NOW has to win 61% of all the remaining delegates to be even with Obama. For every state she looses from now on the percentage goes up. For every state that she doesn't make the 61 percent mark the percentage goes up.

This does not count Florida(210) or Michigan (156) which would lower the percentage needed.

[rniel]

89. Because

Paris Hilton and Brittney Spears have not gotten arrested in the last 3 days.

[BringBigDogBack]

93. Correct.

Only about 600 more delegates left. Then no more moving goalposts.

[jenmito]

98. I hope/think the superdelegates will still flock to him, especially after seeing

how Hillary's running her smear campaign.

[Alter Ego]

94. The goalposts keep moving.

On to Guam!

[jenmito]

99. They sure do. n/t

[DuaneBidoux]

96. She did. Unless the superdelegates go to her it is impossible to win.

[jenmito]

100. Yup. And I don't see that happening.