Gallup Daily: Clinton 48%, Obama 44%

[nonconformist]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Hillary Clinton has moved ahead of Barack Obama in national Democratic nomination preferences, 48% to 44%, in polling conducted Sunday through Tuesday.



http://www.gallup.com/poll/104788/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-48-Obama-44.aspx

The momentum has shifted....

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

1. "The momentum has shifted...."

How long do you expect it's going to last?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Through The Convention

~

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

6. ORLY?

Do you think she'll win in Mississippi?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. No- WV, KY, PA, PR, And Possibly IN

If you do an auto search I predicted her RI, OH, and TX wins...

By June she will be beating Obamessiah and McCain in the polls... Obamessiah will be trailing Grand Pa Pa McCain...

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

12. Well then so much for momentum

Oh, by the way, they haven't finished counting in Texas yet.

[Horse with no Name]

19. Primary is counted

They are counting the caucus...but of course you know that the caucus isn't over yet?
Lots of time to twist arms between now and then.
Next arm twisting will be March 29.
Of course you do know that this process won't end until around June?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

24. Right.

And until they finish the caucus, we won't know who's won Texas.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Yes, They Have Finished Counting The Primary Votes

http://www.chron.com/apps/ElectionPub/local.mpl?action=&nextview=LOCALMATRIX&crit=Statewide&conav=1&crittype=county&colct=2

If you are referring to caucuses they are ,imho, as small d democratic as old Politburo votes...

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

Ooo, sorry, no.

Regardless of your opinion, the caucus is very important in deciding who wins Texas.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. If It Makes You Feel Better Believing That Then Go Right Ahead

The popular, read ,non-elite-I'm a highly educated voter who makes over $200,000.00 a year and is a charter member of my local public radio station voter thinks Hillary won Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island...

If a bunch of guys in some debating salon feel otherwise that's their prerogative...

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

31. I'd think highly educated people...

should do their homework better.

[Horse with no Name]

40. I think Americans, in general, have short attention spans

the news said Hillary won Texas...which she did win the primary.
The caucus won't be resulted until June and then and only then will Obama reap any rewards from Texas.

[Renew Deal]

25. She needs to win 62% of the rest of the delegates to squeak ahead

And that's before WY and MS. Then it will be at least 63%. And when she wins less than 60% in PA, it will be even harder.

[jlake]

4. Until Hillary's 2nd term ends in 2013.

[xxqqqzme]

13. I was at a board meeting last night

and the treasurer, who is 39, remarked that ever since he could vote there has been a b**h or a Clinton as president. He said if Clinton is president for 2 terms, he will be 50 at the next election & he expects jebster will be running then.

Sobering.

[aquart]

28. So vote for Obama because he's BORED?

My god, what a pitiful reason to avoid voting for the first viable woman candidate for president the United States has ever had.

Aren't you ashamed to associate with someone so trite that he can only speak in right wing talking points? Because the only one who can be hurt by that oft-repeated meme is Hillary Clinton, the only woman frontrunner in American history.

And isn't it deft to associate the prosperous 8 years of Clinton with the 12 years of disaster under the Bushes? Who tried so desperately to destroy Bill Clinton? (And never shirked from also maligning his wife and daughter.)

You have no shame. And I kinda don't believe you ever met a guy at a meeting, either.

[xxqqqzme]

43. Wow - sorry to ruffle your feathers

Tough shit - His name is Eric, he has 2 year old twin girls and a year old son. He was merely stating his perspective as a 39 year old. I thought it was a rather sad commentary on the state of politics in this country - 350 million people and all we can find is a Clinton or a b**h?

He was not bashing Clinton, he was not using it as a justification to vote for Obama - CA primary was on super Tuesday and he voted for Edwards even though he had withdrawn.

Good god - get a f**king grip!

Clinton supporters really are wigging out. Cripes!

[Spider Jerusalem]

48. The fact that she's the first viable woman candidate isn't a good reason to vote FOR her.

You could make the same brainless argument about 'lame reasons for not voting for the first viable black candidate for president the United States has ever had'. (And Hillary is not the frontrunner; she's behind in votes, behind in delegates, behind in funds...none of this makes for frontrunner status.) Not to mention that the prosperity of the Clinton years was based largely on an unsustainable economic bubble from the tech boom (which Clinton wasn't responsible for); and Clinton's economic policies of free-trade neoliberalism weren't especially good for a lot of people, either...see: NAFTA, GATT, etc; I live in a part of the country where it was possible to observe the negative effects of some of those policies firsthand...the textile industry once employed a LOT of people in the non-urban South; now, a decade and a half later, there IS no textile industry anymore, and a lot of small-town economies have been essentially decimated...but, hey, the middle class with some extra money to invest did all right, so things MUST have been good, no?

[DemBones DemBones]

37. Look, she was born Hillary Rodham, she's only a Clinton by marriage,

which is far different from father-son presidencies.

[nonconformist]

41. An important distinction.

And it's also worth noting that if one is going to play the dynasty card, one also has to acknowledge that by and large, people have very positive memories of the Bill Clinton presidency. They remember those 8 years as a time of peace and unprecedented prosperity, and they want those times again.

I've spoken with a couple of people myself that have said that when Bill was entrenched in the Monica scandal that they started to dislike him a lot, but now after 8 years of Bush, they now see what a wonderful president he was and would like to have some of that back.

There's nothing like a Bush destroying the country to pave way for a Clinton to clean it up.

[Hawkowl]

44. Ah yes the Argentine argument

Eva obviously was not Juan Peron. And hey they just elected another first lady! We can only aspire to be as democratic as Argentina! We actually sort of elect our Kings! Let's put that motto on our currency.

[susankh4]

50. But... Obama will also be running.

With a Kennedy for VP.

That's the glory of the Clinton/Obama ticket.

16 years of Dem rule!

[spotbird]

16. Clinton hopes

until the SD can be persuaded to ignore the voters, as is their right.

[nebula]

33. Gallop is a GOP front

You have to be stupid to take them seriously.

[nonconformist]

34. Buyers remorse is setting in.

People who were on the fence are starting to favor pragmatism instead of idealism.

[billbuckhead]

2. It's obvious now that the momentum is going toward Hillary!

[Maven]

5. K/R

[LulaMay]

7. GO HILLARY!!! Keep fighting, keep running, keep proving the CORP OWNED media WRONG.

She is the candidate of the people, 4 the people.

[susankh4]

51. Yes she is!

And we won't let her down!

We got her a big OH win. Now... off to PA! Then KY.....

[Beausoir]

8. This is excellent news!

[enki23]

9. that's within gallup's stated sampling error of +/-3

at least with reference to the previous poll's result, and so does not represent a significant change at all. what that graph *actually* shows is that those polling results have been remarkably consistent since mid February, showing Hillary with what is probably a very slight lead throughout, given Gallups particular poll questions and sampling methods.

in any case, that can't possibly reflect something that was *caused by* yesterday's results.

[grantcart]

10. take your one poll and raise it with 5 others

[DavidDvorkin]

14. That's a bit old

The claimed shift in momentum is recent, if it exists.

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. The "Latest Poll" in your graph was 2/26/2008

This is exactly what is meant by the phrase "the momentum has shifted". Those polls are outdaged by a week already.

And there are no new polls showing the effect of Clinton winning 3 out of 4 last night yet.

[grantcart]

29. yes but even when it was current it still did not reflect the wider number of polls

so we will all have to wait until new polls come out and show a wider sampling.

But I just find it odd whenever a Clinton supporter points to numbers to make any kind of argument because Obama only needs 46% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination.

In the last month he has taken 80% of the superdelegates who announced their support 66-16

Fine we are off to Wyoming and Mississippi. Just remember this. Hillary could have gone out on a high note. But when she is raking in $ 1,000,000 a day there is no incentive for her to do so - except the better interests of the party - and the country.

She will continue. She knows the numbers and she will end this campaign with a huge warchest for her future political interests and in the meantime might damage Obama in the GE - which would then make it possible for her to run in 4 years.

This isn't about getting the nomination or getting a little a bit ahead in the polls. The numbers don't lie.

[nonconformist]

39. Some of us would argue that Obama is the one tearing apart the party

Not Hillary.

I remember when Obama came out and said she won't get my voters, but I'll get hers. That was so incredibly condescending and divisive, I couldn't believe it. It made it so incredibly clear that this wasn't about the country, or Democrats, or even his supporters... it was just about OBAMA.

[Buve]

46. QFT

BObama: "i can get hers, she can't get mine"
MObama: "I don't know if I'd campaign for her"

Who started all this stuff.. O B A M A

[CyberPieHole]

17. The "momentum has shifted" indeed. America says "YES" to Clinton and screams out "NOBAMA"...

:kick: and rec

[SeaLyons]

26. K & R

:kick:

[DemBones DemBones]

38. Right you are! NObama! Only Clinton will get my vote!

:kick:

[cottonseed]

18. Clinton is smearing him Nationaly. Obama is running a primary campaign.

These number will probably hold for a while. Until Obama starts winning states again later this week and next.

The most frustrating thing for me is the fact that Hillary is treating this thing as a general election. She's tearing him down publicly, sewing seeds of doubt, playing dirty, and working in concert with McCain and even Bush on some days to destroy him as a candidate. All on a NATIONAL stage.

It's not that Obama has a "glass jaw", it's that the guy is running a pretty respectable primary campaign, realizing that one of the two candidates will have to run against the Republicans. Hence, the reason for not destroying Hillary on a national stage -- now that's party loyalty.

So, I hope that he can work with his superior organization and wrap this up state by state. If he can hold on, the national smearing that Hillary is giving him may actually have some value. In order to go this route, he will need make sure he's trying to at least steer the framing his way.

[bigtree]

20. there's somethin' happenin' here

[SeaLyons]

21. Go Hillary!!!!!

All the way to the White House!!

[aquart]

22. Perception is all.

[nonconformist]

32. I like your sigline.

Really spells it out.

[Alhena]

27. It will shift right back too. The pledged delegates will remain Obama's

[npincus]

35. Let HRC enjoy her Victory Bounce... it won't last.

[CyberPieHole]

36. Kickz...n/t

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

42. If She Keeps These Numbers Going Into The Convention, And Can Win Head To Head McCain Polls, She'll

be the nominee. Mark my words.

[Hawkowl]

45. Polls don't win elections.

Delegates win nominations and the electoral votes decide the general. Pluralities and majorities and popular opinion doesn't mean jack shit.

Face it. Most Americans just really suck ass when it comes to math and comparative probabilities. Everything is possible. It's just that essentially, some probabilities equal zero. For example your chance of winning the Powerball is about 1 divided by 20,000,000 which essentially equals zero. Yet people still buy tickets. Now HRC's chances are better than zero but certainly they are worse than 1/2. Probably more like 1/10 at best. Why 1/10? Because she would have to pull off an UNPRECEDENTED political calculus to sway enough super delegates to support her. Even Bush's theft of the whitehouse in 2000 wasn't unprecedented.

[Buve]

47. popular vote

Not as long as I can argue an obama delgate cost ~9500 votes and a clinton delegate costs ~10200 votes.



I'll scream Gore 2000 Gore 2000 Gore 2000 Gore 2000 Gore 2000 Gore 2000 until you all hear and remember the pain of wining the popular and losing the general.

[my3boyz]

49. So pathetic! When Obama was ahead Hillary supporters said

National numbers don't matter! Then once she gets ahead they are posting all over the board! PATHETIC!

[shayes51]

52. Thanks!