I'm sure McCain is wringing his hands in anticipation of our brokered convention.

[FogerRox]

IMHO the pledged delegate count/race has been great fun. Last night Hillary won 3 out of 4, congrats, good showing.

I mean we had a good field of Democratic candidates at the start, the strongest field in years. I started with Gore,
he didn't run, then I supported Edwards, as I bought an Obama button, Summer '07. So I was able to pop that Obama button on,
as soon as I heard from Edwards.



Al himself told me..... "No Roger, I'm not running for president".

I can hardly remember a time we've had 2 front runners going at it this late in the season. Do I wish it was over...
hell yeah, McCain clearly emerged as their front runner on Super Tuesday, & he clinched last night. It might be fair
to say McCain will remain unscathed, until we democrats have decided on our nominee. If so, McCain can fundraise
in a better environment. Advantage McCain .

Move/countermove, the Chess Game.

Didn't Hillary need 57% of the remaining delegates ? Here is some back of the envelope stuff:
Of the 370 delegates in play last night, HRC needed 57% to catch Obama, thats 211., she got about 52%, 191 delegates,
at best 191. Some estimates are as low as 146. If HRC gets 183 for March 4th, thats about 50%. A 50/50 delegate split
means she doesn't gain an inch on Obama.

Advantage Obama.
But Obama had the chance to put the lid on the pledged delegate coffin last night, he didn't do it.
OTOH Hillary secured the blocking move to 2025 pledged delegates, IIRC.
Advantage Hillary.


Hillary's campaign knows it should finish stronger down the stretch, closing the pledged delegate gap. I think its fair to
say one would want finish the season on firm ground. Securing big wins from here on out, to me it now feels like 60%+,
I haven't done the math, but I think the general rule still applies, Hillary has to have averaged winning 57% of the PDs
by the end of it.

Caveat, All of this is thinking as if the Convention doesn't exist, which of course is completely unrealistic.




EDITING to insert Banner. EDIT: Insert finger waving AL Gore and change title.

[FogerRox]

1. Kickin... help, I'm drowning....