TX Caucus Totals - Clinton Total DROPPED!

[rcsl1998]

Per CNN, at 3PM (Eastern Time), the Texas caucus results were:

37% of caucus vote
Obama 20,595 52%
Clinton 19,105 48%

at 3:30PM, the new results:

38% of caucus vote
Obama 21,955 56%
Clinton 17,393 44%

WTF!?!?! Gore & Florida comes to mind. What's going on? Did anyone else see this? (these were the totals CNN ran on the bottom of their broadcast)

[redqueen]

1. Not surprising.

The precincts that would take the longest time to hash out would be the most populous ones... which would be the ones which favored Obama.

[LiveLiberally]

34. I agree. and frankly don't understand the fuss....

The Dallas Morning News reported today that urban caucuses were over-run and thus will likely be reporting later. What we're now seeing is some of these large caucus sites reporting.

[redqueen]

39. It's just logic.

But around here, madness reigns...

[awaysidetraveler]

43. So Obama won 4 delegates in Texas, given the 56% lead. Who knows, maybe he won Texas by more.

Given the nature of the whole Texas election.

[Hoof Hearted]

44. I think the question is, how can one have fewer total votes with more reporting?

If I have $126 dollars and you have $143 dollars somebody gives both of us more money, I shouldn't end up walking away with $112 dollars unless somethin' funny went on.

[redqueen]

49. The caucus doesn't give you more... it's separate.

As I understand it, that is! It's way kooky.

The way I understand it is, the candidates get a percentage of TX delegates based on the primary vote... and another separate percentage of delegates based on the caucus results.

[Hoof Hearted]

55. I don't understand what their totals represent then? Is it primary votes + confrence delegates or

what? What a cluster****.

And if the delegate totals are then figured separately, shouldn't the results be reported separately? This is gonna take a while, isn't it?

[rcsl1998]

58. In TX, Primary Counts For 2/3 Of Delegates & Caucus 1/3

You can't vote in the caucus unless you voted in the primary - So the vote againers are more equal than the others...

[Hoof Hearted]

97. I GET that, sily.I was asking about the tally/representation method as it's being reported.

There's an important difference there.

[redqueen]

64. Yes, they should be (and I think are) reported separately...

the issue raised by the OP is different, though... I didn't notice that the TOTAL votes counted for Hillary had decreased over time... and unless some precinct was double counted and then that was corrected, I can't think of any legitimate reason why that would happen.

[rcsl1998]

48. A Vote TOTAL Can't DROP

It may increase more slowly than someone else, but it can't drop - Obama's total increased 1,360 which is fine - Clinton's total DROPPED 1,712 - Total voted counted at 37% reporting was 39,700 - 38% total was 39,348, a net drop of 352 votes - Impossible in a legitimate count...

[redqueen]

50. Oh, I see what you're saying now...

I thought... well nevermind what I thought.

That's troubling, and unless there was some glitch where a precinct's votes were entered twice and then corrected, I don't know of any legitimate explanation for it.

[LiveLiberally]

59. I see your point & agree it looks strange but....

based on my reading of the Texas caucus rules, it is possible that they are recounting on the fly the vote totals. There are several acceptable methods for reporting caucus totals, including -- get this -- snail mailing them in. If a caucus site was reported by phone and then faxed that could account for duplicates and change in vote totals. Remember New Mexico? It took two weeks and a complete recount to get official totals.

[rcsl1998]

63. I Heard They Have Until Friday To 'Mail' In The Results

If that's correct, how can any TX caucus figures be believed. Texas Two-Step is right...

[redqueen]

65. Welcome to Texas Politics 101.

Please wear a gas mask and rubber wading boots, for your own protection.

:hi:

[0007]

95. Do ya have to bring your own KY jelly?

[WolverineDG]

74. If the results are not mailed in

(and mind you, there is a LOT of paperwork involved; took me almost to midnight to do mine) after 3 days, the results of the caucus are void. If it is determined that the caucus was improperly conducted, the results of the caucus are void. If no caucus was held, no delegates can be awarded. Again, it's all in the rules & the rules haven't changed since God was a teenager.

I mailed my paperwork to the party this morning & will be giving the party chair his share of it tomorrow.

dg

[WolverineDG]

72. Actually it can

They have to audit the lists turned in from the conventions last night. In my precinct, I verified the Obama folks, so I know our totals are correct. However, the other side didn't verify theirs, so someone is going to have to audit their paperwork. If so, then they'll have to remove those who didn't sign in properly, who signed in at the wrong precinct, signed twice, etc etc.

We were given a number & special access code to call in our results last night, prior to the auditing, so if anyone missed something in the verification portion (very likely given the total chaos in my county) those names will have to be removed from the lists.

And before any whining starts, this is all in the rules of the TDP & have been the rules since forever, including 1992 when Bill used the caucuses to win Texas.

dg

[rcsl1998]

80. I Hope That TX Changes This System By 2012

Voting twice to award 33% of your delegates just isn't right in my book - This year, the TX rules are what they are, but this system is ugly to the bone no matter who comes out on top...

[WolverineDG]

83. Do you live here?

The ones doing the crying about the "unfair rules" now are the ones who for decades have used them to their advantage, including the Clintons, who used them to win in 1992.

dg

[rcsl1998]

85. No - And I Said The Rules Are What They Are This Year No Matter Who Wins By The Current Rules

But I seriously think that looking forward to future election cycles, this double vote system means some people are more equal than others - I don't care for it - but since I'll not convince you nor you convince me, and since you've answered my questions on the vote count (thanks), I've got some other threads to read...

[blogslut]

89. I dig it

This is my first year to caucus because frankly, I had no idea we had a hybrid caucus/primary.

Here's what I've learned about why the process is so cool:

At the precinct caucus, the members introduce and vote on resolutions. The precinct delegates take the winning resolutions with them to the county convention. Those county delegates then votes on resolutions made from the precincts. The winning resolutions follow the state delegates to the state convention. At state, these resolutions, emanating from hundreds of Texas counties, are voted on. Those winning resolutions are then taken to the national convention.

I rather like that. The individual towns, precincts and regions of my state have a direct voice in the platform of the Democratic party.

[Kittycat]

2. Why are you taking CNNs word?

Why not go to their SOS site?

[tabatha]

3. Maybe there was an error that was fixed.

I saw that in the 2004 election.

[rcsl1998]

22. You're Referring To Gore's Negative Vote Count In Florida?

...until it was caught?

[AllexxisF1]

4. Math ...ain't it a bitch.

[otohara]

19. Love The "Math"

poster! LOL

[rcsl1998]

25. As Stalin said...

...it's not who votes, but who COUNTS the votes...

[Hepburn]

88. Priceless! n/t

[bluestateguy]

5. Why didn't Hillary's supporters show up for her at the caucus?

That has to say something about their level of committment to their candidate.

[tekisui]

6. The pukes didn't want to commit THAT much to Hillary.

They just voted in the Primary.

[blm]

18. Yep.

Have heard firsthand Ohio stories, too. My niece in Shaker Hts said her fundie parents voted for Hillary - they were staunch Romney supporters. Since they didn't have a race, they took Rush's advice.

[goldcanyonaz]

71. The pukes have been showing up for Obama in caucuses since Iowa.

[Thurston Howell III]

8. You got that right!

They miss a lot of things.

[ourbluenation]

10. because they were righties messing with the primary. n/t

[Alter Ego]

Bill will just say, "They done stoled our election!"

[aquarius dawning]

21. they were probably working.

or tired from a long day of working. You get the point.

[redqueen]

26. I get the point... it's "cool" to use RW smears against supporters

of a different candidate.

*sigh*

[aquarius dawning]

28. Most of Obama's supporters are college students living off grants, loans, scholarships, mommy/daddy

so it isn't a smear so much as point of fact.

[yourguide]

30. and most HRC supporters cant remember where they left their dentures.

so it isnt a smear so much as a point of fact.

[redqueen]

52. Hah...

nice turning it around there... maybe that'll work better than my attempt to point out the wrongness.

[last_texas_dem]

60. Bullshit

You mean to tell us that 48-percent of the people who voted in the Texas Democratic primary are "college students living off grants, loans, scholarships, mommy/daddy"? Why don't you just go all the way and say that the reason only 22-percent of the Democrats in TX turned out for such a competitive primary was because we got stuck in line waiting to cash our welfare checks?

[thevoiceofreason]

67. Facts?

Or you making this one up too?

[Growler]

69. the future

> Most of Obama's supporters are college students living off grants, loans, scholarships, mommy/daddy...

Ah, you mean "the future of this nation."

Maybe the young kids are tired of the way their parents' generation have mis-managed this country, and are sick of the Democratic Party's "Politics of Failure." I know I am.

[Bongo Prophet]

81. That was not my experience in Texas. Mixed race, ages, demographics in general.

Same with Hillary - there were young and old, hispanic and white, working class and mid/upper mid.

I think both sides are stereotyping each other too much.

[thoughtcrime1984]

91. Give me a fucking break

I work with 200+ Union workers ages 22-75, full time. None of us are college kids, and many of us voted for Obama. And why are you ripping on college students anyway? Very annoying.

[Horse with no Name]

29. Demographics

But of course a smart person would know that...maybe you do and just enjoy being disingenuous.

[redqueen]

53. More than that - just life!

I wanted to caucus, but couldn't, cause I had to give my brother a ride home cause his car broke down.

We're both Obama supporters. And we're definitely NOT spoiled rich kids.

[Horse with no Name]

75. I know that

And had I been scheduled to work, I wouldn't have been able to since I work 12 hour shifts that start at 7 pm.
But...the typical demographic for Obama is college kids and the youth (and I have two of those so I know they aren't ALL spoiled rich kids) and the typical demographic for Hillary is older (hence the obama crowd jokes about Murder she Wrote marathons).
Demographics DID play a key...ignorance of the caucus process also played a big part.
I had about 9 calls from the Hillary camp...all told me to caucus but nobody really explained how it worked.

[City Lights]

86. Buyer's remorse.

:evilgrin:

[Igel]

87. The caucuses are a pain.

I went to one last night.

I got there at 7:30 and signed in. Turns out there was a line stretching through the store, but since I happened to get at the sign-in table just as they were setting up I didn't realize it. I joined a group of caucusers, watching as additional people joined. We were told to find some place to organize ourselves. We had no idea where.

I went shopping, since we were in a grocery store and I needed milk and bananas. I took the stuff to the car and returned. I didn't recognize anybody in the group I was in; they'd all given up and left.

By 8:15 or so they had everybody signed in. By 8:45 they had counted, re-counted, verified that the re-count was wrong and determined that some other count was right. At 9 we managed to get the figures: 61 HRC, 400 even for BO. By this time we were all standing on the sidewalk in front of the store.

Did I mention that I had a four-year-old boy with me?

The 7 or so HRC supporters stood on one side of the store entrance. The 100+ BO supporters stood on the other side. By around 9:20 the HRC folks had sorted out who the delegates would be to the country convention. They were given a piece of paper to write it on while the BO people continued to hash out who their 30 delegates would be. Not a form, just a piece of notebook paper. They left it, assuming that the information would be put on the proper form and signed by the proper person. They (and I) have no idea if it was.

I don't blame people for leaving early. Or for not coming back at 7 pm and then waiting until 7:30 or even 8 pm to sign in. Obama's core constituency--better educated (correlated with fewer kids) and younger (correlated with fewer kids) makes sense. By the time I got out of there I'd been carrying, cajoling, and placating my kid for over 2 hours in a crowd. Got home at 10 and we both went straight to bed.

It's easy to be condescending and diss people. Empathy is apparently a heck of a lot harder to come by these days. In the '90s the dems called themselves the part of empathy. No longer, I guess.

[eleny]

7. You mean her supporters failed to attend their caucus?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

9. Seems they've forgotten all about it.

:rofl:

[eleny]

20. The world ended on Febraury's Super Tuesday - dontcha know?!

[LeftCoast]

12. Yeah. They had to work.

[redqueen]

14. And this disposes of the "only Obama supporters use RW smears" meme.

*sigh*

[LeftCoast]

33. Demographics. Clinton's supporters are blue-collar, Obama's are white-collar.

No smear.

[redqueen]

35. No sale.

But nice attempt at a save.

[LeftCoast]

41. If it makes you feel better to call it a smear...

Obviously as a Clinton supporter I am evil and deserve your contempt.

:eyes:

[redqueen]

46. Sorry, no...

that's not how I roll.

Why are you doing this? When have I ever attempted to demonize Clinton's supporters?

:wtf:

[LeftCoast]

54. You're jumping on me

I may be a cranky DUer, but I would hope that my history of posts would show that I am quite unhappy with lies smears and distortions. Perhaps I was a bit short in my original post, but I still stand by what I said. I feel that demographics had a roll in the caucus wins.

[redqueen]

61. Sorry, but I felt jumped on by that comment...

I'm sure they did have a role... and if you'd put it that way, instead of 'they have jobs', I might not have felt that way.

Peace.

[cali]

56. How absurd. And inaccurate.

Clinton has more blue-collar supporter than Obama (not in all states) and Obama has more white collar workers than Clinton. It's not neatly divided and shouldn't make a difference in the caucuses. What probably did make the difference are the disparities in ground operations. Obama had a TX ground operation in place for almost a year; Clinton's didn't get up and running until a 3 or so weeks ago. There. Now you have a reasonble explanation, not a spurious one.

[LeftCoast]

62. I think we're just going to have to disagree here

[eleny]

23. Are you implying Obama supporters don't work?

How's that thin ice working out for you?

[bluestateguy]

57. yeah, I'm just sitting here drinking my latte, living off of my trust fund

And later this afternoon I'm going to head down to the organic foods grocery store before heading off to my yoga lesson.

[eleny]

68. And then the limo takes you home...

I know your type.

[democrattotheend]

94. This Obama supporter just got home from work

Almost midnight on the East Coast (and I just realized, almost my 24th birthday, lol). I may be white collar, but I work hard for my money!

[WolverineDG]

76. Too bad so sad for this meme

The Texas Election Code specifically states that no employer can keep an employee from attending a caucus & the only thing they can do is not pay them for the time they spent at the caucus.

If HRC didn't get this info to her supporters, too fucking bad. It's in the rules, but I guess she didn't read them.

dg

[Capn Sunshine]

13. Oh, they're there all right

But the crossover voters from RW land wouldn't dare show up there.

[LSK]

11. it was 56 to 44 when I went to bed last night

[rcsl1998]

15. Yeah, and?

[LSK]

32. and Gore and Florida does not come to mind

[rcsl1998]

36. see post #22

[LSK]

45. so whos vote total is fishy then? who are they screwing???

:shrug:

[rcsl1998]

66. As The Votes Are Counted, You Cannot Have Less Votes As The Count Continues

A lower percentage, YES - A lower total vote count, NO - Please review the hard numbers in the original OP!

[Cha]

16. This is uplifting in a sea

of negativity! Bless those Caucusin' Texans' Hearts! :loveya: :loveya:

[Texas Hill Country]

17. I was there, it was a mess and I saw rampant no-no's all over the place

I would not be shocked at all if there was rampant cheating.

[snappyturtle]

47. I was there too in Texas Hill Country. We were reminded to come to

the convention at 7:15. We went. We submitted our choices. We left. Huge crowd! I saw no rampant cheating!!??? What did you see? Did you report it?

[THUNDER HANDS]

24. wow, look at that, dedicated democrats show up and vote for Obama

people who, if they have enough time to get around to it, you know, if it's not to much trouble, and if the weather is okay, vote for hillary.

[Horse with no Name]

27. It is in flux

Expect it to go up and down until they arrive at a number.

[rcsl1998]

31. Up Yes, Down No...

[tekisui]

37. Obama's winning streak--12, CLinton's winning streak--3

Obama nipped her momentum promptly with the Texas Caucus win. Should be the headline.

[NorthernSpy]

38. so many of Hillary's voters had to rush home and post about it on Free Republic...

HEY I JUST VOTED FOR BILLARY LOL IM SERIES !!!1!!1111111`




... so they couldn't make the caucus later that day.

[rodeodance]

42. It's been the obamafolk to go the the FR slime site for infor and bring it back here!

[awaysidetraveler]

40. CNN's report leaves Obama winning Texas, despite contrary reports.

Obama gained 4 delegates over Hillary in Texas.

Texas Primary: Clinton 64/ Obama 60
Texas Caucus: Obama 38/ Clinton 30

Hillary gained 15 delegates over Obama in Ohio

Ohio Primary Clinton 77/ Obama 62/ Edwards 2

The Vermont and RI Primaries canceled one another out.

Vermont Primary: Obama 9/ Clinton 6

Rhode Island Primary: Clinton 12/Obama 9

HRC's base is rallying around this Pyrric victory.

Congratulations on her win, which shows that indeed she is a formidable political figure,
but please realize that this is not the victory Hillary needed to win the election.


Ty

[snappyturtle]

51. Thank you for posting. n/t

[Cha]

79. Thanks awaysidetraveler...this

whole thing has been feeling like bush and Gore in 2000 but I'm hoping it has an 180 different outcome.

[Lucinda]

70. It will likely shift a lot more before all the counting is done.

[rcsl1998]

73. The Running Total Can Only Go Up, Not Down

Percentages can go up or down - hard numbers (the running total) CANNOT go down!

[WolverineDG]

77. Yes, they can

see upstream. They're auditing the results.

dg

[Lucinda]

78. Ahhh...Sorry. I missed that.

Unless there were just explainable corrections made, it would seem suspect.

[bling bling]

82. Seems strange.

If the revised lower total for Clinton is the result of auditing it would helpful if CNN would make note of it. I hate watching vote totals change suspiciously without explanation.

[Bongo Prophet]

84. First - CNN messes stuff up all the time. Use official sources.

Second- precinct convention totals are going to trickle in, and the official numbers should be delegate numbers.
In our precinct, we had 65 (50 Clinton, 15 Obama) and the OFFICIAL delegate number was 9 to 3, because we had 12 delegates allotted to our precinct, based on the how many voted in our precinct in the last election. It is the 9 to 3 that is official, not the number of voters - because of the rounding done in each precinct.


As far as numbers going down, who knows what CNN was doing? That happens all the time, and partly because of unofficial projections and such.
The same way they have numbers with 0% reporting. It makes no logical sense, but is common.


We just got our numbers in, hand delivered, today. It was over too late last night, and the precinct judge was long gone.
As noted elsewhere, some will snail mail in the totals, so it will be a trickle.

[WolverineDG]

92. Maybe they're counting voters at the caucuses?

We did have to give the party hotline the # of signers for Hillary & for Obama. As the lists get audited, that number is going to go down. Lots of mistakes made (intentionally & unintentionally) last night.

dg

[Bongo Prophet]

96. Yes, that is probably where the "caucus voters" numbers likely come from

And that might include provisionals or just wrongly reported numbers. The rounding down and "remainders" could wee skew the numbers a bit as well. Each precinct could have a few voters that got rounded down because of the formula, and add up to quite a bit. Then the fact that each precinct gets a set amount of delegate slots - so 600 people show up in a pct that had few votes in the last election, and goes 50-50 could be a big remainder. A pct with 6 or 60 might end up with the same number of pre-allotted delegates. All in the percentages and allotments.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

90. That does seem oddd. Someone needs to check this out . . .

to be sure that Obama wins this one fair and square. Voter fraud is unacceptable regardless of who benefits.

[NMMatt]

93. Except CNN is not the official vote count

:eyes: