A look at the math if we assume Micighan and Florida are counted...

[TAWS]

Obama currently has a 144 pledged delegate lead according to RCP.

Florida has 185 pledged delegates and Michigan has 128 pledged delegates

I personally think the most likely solution to Michigan/Florida would be for DNC to strip them of half of their delegates and let the results stand but
assuming a 60/40 split of delegates in favor of Clinton (which is very generous for Clinton because Obama got 40% of the vote in Florida if you just count votes for Clinton and Obama, and he would have gotten much more than 40% in Michigan),

Hillary would get 188 delegates out of 313
Obama would get 125 delegates out of 313
Net Gain: +63 delegates for Clinton

That means Obama can afford to lose 83 delegates from the rest of the primaries and still have delegates to counter Florida and Michigan. Of course, this assumes that superdelegates will decide to go with the person with the most pledged delegates.

Of the remaining races besides Pennsylvania, Obama will at least break even. At worst, Obama could lose 30 delegates from Pennsylvania. There is no way Clinton can win on the pledged delegate front, and Pennsylvania is her only big stronghold left.

The biggest advantage for Obama is that he can run up the score late in the race with wins in Puerto Rico (which is a caucus), South Dakota, Montana, Oregon.

[BeatleBoot]

1. Neither Candidate can win Without Super Delegates

And the Obama campaign wants a re-vote in Florida and Michigan.

[TAWS]

7. Not going to happen, it would be REWARDING Michigan and Florida by letting them have last say

[Orangepeel]

13. It could happen. Dean has told them they can do what they want before June 10.

If Michigan and Florida want to pay for a new primary, they can. (at least that's what Tim Russert just said on the NBC news)

[dbonds]

12. Actually Obama wants the first vote for delegates in Florida and Michigan.

That thing they did before was not for delegtes and everyone knew it. It is wrong now to try to take what was a vanity vote and make it for delegates. You don't change the rules in the middle of the game. And the rules were that Florida and Michigan was not authorized to vote before super tuesday by the very party they were trying voting to effect, as a result they lost their delegates. If they reschedule the vote then they will be within the rules.

[madfloridian]

2. If they are counted, she will lose votes in the general.

Bottom line. It is intolerable to me the lies that were told.

[Maddy McCall]

4. So, allowing people's votes to count will result in lost votes in the general?

That is simply insane.

[madfloridian]

5. No, it is admitting that parties need rules and order.

Hillary is not entitled. It is not her party.

[JackORoses]

14. the elections were invalid. the votes will count if new primaries are held.

Why is it that you and Hillary are so dead set on seating flawed delegations?
Why doesn't Hillary support a revote?

Oh, might it be because she sees an advantage and doesn't care if its fair or not?

[madfloridian]

20. oops replied to wrong post.

.

[panader0]

3. Won't happen...........

[WDIM]

6. I think they need to allow MI and FL to vote again

and follow the rules set by the party.

[madfloridian]

9. No.

It will probably lead to a third party.

[leveymg]

8. I wish I were so sanguine. An 83 delegate lead isn't a lot. There are still >1100 delegates out

there, as yet accounted for. This is how I understand how it breaks down:

Pledged Delegates
Obama: 1384
Clinton: 1230
----------------
Diff: 154 (Advantage Obama)
Super Delegates:
Obama: 198
Clinton: 243
-----------------
Diff: 45 (Advantage Clinton)
Total Delegates:
Obama: 1582
Clinton: 1473
-----------------
Diff: 109 (Advantage Obama)

Here's what's still up for grabs: http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primari...
WY - 18 delegates
MS - 10
PA - 188
Guam - 9
IN - 84
NC - 144
WV - 39
KY - 60
OR - 65
MO - 24
SD - 23
PR - 63
________
727

Wildcards:

FL (redo? proportionate?) - 210
MI (redo? proportionate?) - 156

There are 794 (not including Michigan and Florida) total Democratic superdelegates, of which 441 aren't yet committed.

No sure thing. Not at all.

[TAWS]

11. They will split those states and those state delegate numbers include Supers fyi

[leveymg]

15. If HRC gets 54% of the delegates from now on, she could pull ahead

even without FL and MI. If she picks up some extra delegates from FL/MI, as you point out, that margin could shrink to about 52%

My conclusion, it's really way too close to call.

[earthlover]

25. Your math is totally off....she needs over 60% in ALL the rest! to tie pledged dels

Go ahead, play with the following chart. (remember that hillary did not get as many delegates last nite as the percentages in the model would suggust, but she needs 60+_% anyway)

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

[JackORoses]

17. are you employed by the DNC? if not, then you are full of shit.

[leveymg]

19. No. How am I FOS?

What's the issue? I'm just trying to count and understand the numbers, like everyone else.

Believe me, I am not happy about recent events.

[JackORoses]

23. my post was in response to TAWS claiming certainty about MI and FL delegations

You are in no way full of shit, but he may be.

[TAWS]

27. Dude Chill, I'm an Obama supporter, I was just saying that he will win even if they are counted n/t

[elehhhhna]

10. Soory, none of this Bushler type rule breaking in MY party.

[Florida22ndDistrict]

16. Stop Doing Fuzzy Math

1) In Florida the break down was Clinton 50%, Obama 33%, Edwards 14%, Kucinich 1%, and the other candidates combined got 2%. You can't give Obama 40% if he did not earn 40%.

2) If you strip the delegates in half you might as well not honor them at all. This is not the Three-fifths compromise of 1787. In reality an apology by the DNC to the voters of Florida is in order. Punishment should never have been dealt to the voters, but to the supper delegates that were seen as troublemakers.

[TAWS]

18. It is not fuzzy math

It's not fuzzy math, those candidates are not in the race anymore, thus their delegates go into the uncommitted section. So if you divide .33/.83 and .50/.83 you get a better idea of the delegate spread for Obama and Clinton.

The Republicans stripped half of the delegates to Florida. WHERE WAS THE OUTCRY?

[Florida22ndDistrict]

22. RE: It is not fuzzy math

Edwards was in the race at the time, his campaign is suspended not ended at this time. Obama got 33% and that's what he gets.

"The Republicans stripped half of the delegates to Florida. WHERE WAS THE OUTCRY?"

I'm not a republican, but I'm sure you can find my outcry about the Florida/Michigan situation no matter how you look at it. It must account for about 90% of my posts. I've been an observer of Democratic Underground for a few years and felt I had to sign up when all the douchebags started echoing that it would be undemocratic to honor Florida's vote.

[TAWS]

24. Edwards delegates will be uncommited after first round, he has no control over those delegates n/t

[Florida22ndDistrict]

28. re:

That's right, and the first round they should stand. If a second vote occurs then more is up for grabs then just those delegates. I'm wounder why so many people have a problem with representing the voice of the people of Florida. I hope you guys enjoy the next 4 years. I'll hate McCain being the president, but my vote is more important then 4 years.

[David Zephyr]

21. Dream on. It ain't gonna happen.

Florida and Michigan are not going to be illegal gold mines for the Clintons.

There will be war within the Democratic Party if the Clintons keep pressing this.

[Flabbergasted]

26. North Carolina, Indiana are solid Obama states as well. Kentucky as well could go O.