It's Not About The Math

[PresidentObama]

As you listen to campaign strategists talk today about various delegate counts and make assumptions and projections on upcoming Democratic primaries, remember one thing: It's not about the math, it's about the politics.

Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will win the Democratic primary because they made the math work for them. Pretending the nomination battle is like a precise mathematical formula ignores the messy political realities. As we noted yesterday, the nomination will be won through old-fashioned arm twisting and political persuasion.

There are many still undetermined factors that can change the math quickly for either candidate:

* What do the superdelegates do?
* What about the add-on delegates that haven't even been picked yet?
* What about Florida and Michigan?
* What about John Edwards' delegates?
* Will Al Gore play the role of impartial party elder?

In fact, the ultimate Democratic nominee may be determined through negotiation. As Craig Crawford notes, "They might have to run together, whatever the order and whether they like it or not.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/03/its-not-about-the-math.html

[Hepburn]

1. In other words....

....it's not merely OK with you if she takes a nomination to which she is not entitled, you are hoping she does this.

How disgusting......:puke:

[PresidentObama]

3. Thanks for trying to put words in my mouth.

[Hepburn]

9. The picture at the end of your post put those words in your mouth.

When one lies down with dogs, one gets fleas. If you don't like being painted with the taint of your candidate, frankly, that is YOUR problem. You should have thought of that BEFORE you chose to support her.

[PresidentObama]

11. Comparing Hillary to a dog. Kudos.

Next....

[Hepburn]

15. OMG.....

....you took that totally wrong. I would NEVER insult dogs by comparing them to Hillary! Mea cupla, mea maximum culpa to all my doggie pals!

[JackORoses]

16. a low dirty dog with mange is more like it

[SKKY]

8. My name is Scott...

...but most of my friends call me Scottie. I think your signature line is just hilarious.

[Hepburn]

12. Thank you....

....my Scottie Mags thinks it's true! :hi:

[Demeter]

2. Well Frankly, I Don't LIke Hillary's Politics

and never have.

[TAWS]

4. The math doesn't matter? Try arguing that in the General Election n/t

[PresidentObama]

6. I didn't write the article, that was it's headline.

[Hepburn]

17. Then maybe you should have taken some time to see the fallacy....

....in what you posted. Ya think? Woof...:hi:

[islandmkl]

5. it's always about the math....

in the end, the math will show you if you have been screwed or not...


politics cannot change 2+2=4....

it will tell you it's 3, 5, 0...whatever is needed...but it will always be 4...

when people resort to funny math to prove anything, you are being screwed...and that is a mathematical fact

[Dogmudgeon]

7. There are, what, over 700 superdelegates left?

Hillary is behind by about 4% on the popular vote but by 6-10% of the delegates.

A couple of interesting scenarios come to mind.

--p!

[TAWS]

14. Actually there are only 350 uncommited super delegates left n/t

[FrenchieCat]

10. It's about a whole lot of things.....

It's about the fallacy of the Clinton losing argument that winning Dems in Big Blue States is a compelling argument to hand her the Nomination.

It's about the fact that women will vote for whatever Democrat is put up there. To believe that middle aged White women will give up their reproductive rights and decide not to vote for the Democrat at top of the ballot if it is not Hillary is lunacy. They are not going to cut off their nose to spite their face.

It's truly about the fact that there is a difference between the Obama voters and the Clinton voters.

Black folks are at the bottom of the ladder anyways, as they always are. Many of them believe that they can weather the storm, like they always have. They now realize that their vote doesn't count very much to Hillary Clinton, as she has already stated that they do not represent an "important" voting bloc to her. In essence, they pretty much have the least to lose of all of the voters.

It is also about the young and new voters, who are known for being notorously apathetic. I don't think that Clinton is compelling enough to get them out to the polls in drove. Barack's movement is not quite as transferable as one would like to think.

Same goes for the Independent voters. They may not come out for Hillary....as they may choose McCain or simply stay home.

In reference to the Hispanic voters, McCain holds basically the same stance on immigration as does both Hillary and Barack.....to a great extent. Out of all of the voters, they are the one least likely to be relied upon as a large voting block, as they showed in 2000 and 2004.

Another argument is that Obama can easily put someone on the ticket that could garnet the Hispanic vote, and it wouldn't have to be Hillary Clinton.

Hillary cannot say the same in attempting to capture Obama's voters, other than to tell us that racists won't vote for Obama. however, there is a similar number of men that won't vote for Hillary because she is a woman...as well, those who simply will select McCain over her cause they can.


and in terms of being attacked and how well it worked; it will now be her turn....since she cried and cried about the media dogging out Obama. The press will have to agree, because there is so much there there that needs airing before the General Election......just to make her a "better" candidate; a line that you hear all of the time about Obama and the need to "toughen" him up for the GE.

[islandmkl]

19. why do you always show up in these forums...

and post well-thought-out and precise points....

this is a free-for-all and your intelligent and informed views are over most of our heads and just gets in the way of the shit-slinging...

please dumb-down your posts...thanks



:applause:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

13. Answers.

"What do the superdelegates do?"

They'll vote for the same nominee the pledged delegates will. They're not stupid.

"What about the add-on delegates that haven't even been picked yet?"

If Clinton does the right thing and drops out, they'll go by default to Obama. If she doesn't, there won't be enough left to make up the deficit.

"What about Florida and Michigan?"

They won't influence the outcome of the nomination. If Clinton drops out, then we can go ahead and let them sit-in at the convention. Essentially, they're not that different then Missouri.

"What about John Edwards' delegates?"

Good question. I don't know. Even if they all went to Clinton, I don't think she'd have enough.

"Will Al Gore play the role of impartial party elder?"

He's a superdelegate. He'll at least have that role.

[sandnsea]

18. The superdelegates vote for the winner

And then the entire party coalesces around that winner and vote for him/her at the convention, including FL & MI, the way they always do.

[Samantha]

20. Nice try - no sale -- the delegate count is the "weight" of the vote

No spin, no talk of momentum, no back-room deals can cancel, or offset, that weight. And that sentence explains exactly why Bush* is considered illegitimate today by many. If Hillary Clinton continues down the path she is implying she will go and prevails, she will carry with her that same stain that Bush* does today. And if she would like to deal with the same problems with which he deals because he cannot get the backing of the majority of Americans, she should keep on trucking down that road.