TX Caucus analysis and conclusion: Obama's lead may expand to produce an Obama victory in TX!

[usregimechange]

Below are the strongholds, % reported, and spread. "Stronghold" is defined here as any county currently producing results over 1,000.

Obama strongholds:
Dallas Co: 47% reporting - winning by 69%.
Harris Co : 35% reporting - winning by 64%.
Travis Co: 75% reporting - winning by 67%.
Tarrant Co : 44% reporting - winning by 60%.

Clinton strongholds
Bexar Co : 51% reporting - winning by 57%.
El Paso Co: 57% reporting - winning by 75%.

Tarrant and the remaining vote from Austin will easily offset Clinton's Bexar vote. The remaining Dallas vote will offset El Paso with some left over. Houston is only 35% in. In addition, Obama is winning in about twice as many counties as he won during the primary. My conclusion is that Obama will win the caucus vote, expand the margin of victory, and here is the big possibility... in terms of delegates Obama may win in TX overall!!!

[Mme. Defarge]

1. YeeeeeeeeeeHawwwwwwwwwww

[usregimechange]

2. He may get close to 60%...

[GodlessBiker]

3. Why are the results taking so long? Are the telegraph lines down?

[usregimechange]

4. I am wondering the same thing. Didn't they do this last night?

[rinsd]

7. The caucuses are not required to report results till state convention on 3/29.

Hector Nieto, a party spokesman, said that final tallies showing who won the caucuses may not be known until the district and county conventions are held across Texas on March 29. He said party officials plan to stop announcing the caucus tallies within the next couple of days.

“Under the party rules … the caucuses are not required to report until the next step,” he said. “We asked them to voluntarily call in their results, and many have, but we don’t expect to get a final number and we’re going to reach a point tomorrow or Friday where the calls will stop.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2008/03/05/caucus_results_could_take_week.html

[powergirl]

9. They are reporting them as they received them

I turned in my caucus counts today. I'm the chair of my precinct. The Clinton folks in Texas know this too.

[usregimechange]

11. Interesting. Thanks. I wonder what % will call in?

[powergirl]

14. We were instructed to call in the caucus results last night

which I did. The phone traffic was very high so others had to call in today. But it'll get done. Lots of people and lots of voters. A good problem to have!

[ExFreeper4Obama]

23. Does it matter if they're not required to report results?

The fact is Obama will win the Texas Caucus and will probably win Texas. When they announce it doesn't matter. In fact, it could hurt Clinton. Think about it, Mississippi and Wyoming will be big wins for Obama. Then the Mar 29 announcement. PA isn't all the way until April 22!!!! Clinton is done.

[usregimechange]

5. Anyone from TX know?

[powergirl]

10. Texan here - yes they will all be done as they are received

Technically, all voting results must be certified, etc. - primary, caucus or otherwise. The votes in Iowa were probably recently "certified." The press and the campaigns use the uncert data b/c it is generally accurate. I am getting tired of these authorities that don't live in Texas telling us how we do our thing! Thank you for posing the question.

[WolverineDG]

6. The convention documents have to be audited

since it was absolute chaos in most counties, the verification might not have been done correctly or as thoroughly as required. Auditing is going on right now.

dg

[usregimechange]

8. About 1% every 2 hours it seems like. Thanks

[dempartisan23]

12. great news.

[Alhena]

13. It's not only possible. A net 3 delegates at least is near certain

[usregimechange]

15. Looking good, I guess Obama TX voters are motivated

[powergirl]

16. We are

We won here in Collin County. 80,000 people voted in the Democratic primary which is huge for this very conservative county. Obama won 55% to 44%. And it was a hard fought battle. But we really want a Democratic president - not just a nominee. I think Obama is the only one who can beat the repubs.

[usregimechange]

20. Is that the North Dallas suburbs?

[powergirl]

22. Yes - I'm in Plano

Frisco, McKinney, and Allen are the other "larger" cities there. Plano has a population of about 500,000.

[TexasLady]

24. Bell County as well

O57 to C42

[ClayZ]

17. Hillary had a premature confetti fest last night!

Perhaps she thinks the whole country can't count!

[Scurrilous]

18. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Armstead]

19. Huh? I though I saw over 95 percent counted on TV ticker

[usregimechange]

27. Nope, 40% now

[Dems Will Win]

21. The state officials are saying it will likely be Obama 98, Clinton 95 delegates from the hybird

contest last night. Since it is a hybrid, he did win, and she is now 2 for 2 on March 4th, not 3 for 4.

[ada chupitos perez]

25. You must be proud that in a contest with 7% turnout your leader won

Very proud.

[thewiseguy]

26. Where did you get that number from?