So... who actually won Texas?

[Colobo]

Honestly, who won it? The person with more delegates or whoever won the popular vote?

[saltpoint]

1. Clinton gets the victor's headline but once the glow wears off, the

dutiful delegates step up to the plate.

She gets the short-term boost. He advances closer to the stage in Denver.

[0007]

30. Thank you OC for putting things in perspective.

[CoffeeCat]

42. I think Hillary will look a bit foolish as well...

...when the Texas totals are finally in (Thurs or Fri) and Obama has
won more delegates.

Her wins will be deflated, because of her initial exaggerations and jumping the gun on Texas.

Why someone would declare victory before the votes are counted--is beyond me.

You may gain some temporary hoopla, and you get to stand in confetti--but in the end you've
tarnished any psychological gains that you did make.

[saltpoint]

44. A lot of people read summaries of the Texas "2-step" system and yet

it seems as snarled and confused as ever two days after it happened.

I trust Larry McMurtry on the subject of Texas and wish they'd put him on for analysis -- of any topic -- instead of the jibber-jabber talking heads.

If HClinton gathers some momentum from the headlines, it will sustain her for a while but in her staff's private meetings there'd be no workable code to subtract from Obama's lead in delegates.

[CoffeeCat]

45. I see Hillary's "celebration"...

...as a PR snafu.

She very publicly stood in a storm of confetti and had this massive victory party. She
then went on a massive press tour declaring herself the big winner. She even furthered
the idea that Obama would be her VP.

There's no problem with engaging in these things if you TRULY have a win that justifies
all of this window dressing. However, if you're going to window dress you'd better make
damn sure that you've got the reality to back it up.

Engaging in this over-the-top victory party before Texas is finalized--was colossal stupid.

What happens if Obama takes more delegates in the Texas caucus and wins more delegates in Texas,
in effect, winning Texas?

The media will capitalize on the, "Hold on a minute, not so fast. Obama won," stories. Video
of Hillary's confetti moments will be played again and again--making her victories now seem
hollow and small.

She risks getting bad PR--in the end--out of her two victories--because she just had to engage in
this ridiculous, premature marketing campaign.

I really don't know who is advising Hillary. Do they hate her?

[saltpoint]

46. I'm guessing Penn and Wolfson -- that bunch. I'm not sure their heart is

in their work, though.

Her own instincts might be a lot better and she ought to have canned the two of them -- and their hangers on -- much earlier.

Tomorrow morning would be the next best time, although now they can say, "Hey, we won you two big states on Tuesday, right?"

So it's still a muddled scenario.

Not sure what to predict next. We have two strong-willed candidates with significant support but neither with enough for a first-ballot victory.

[tokenlib]

2. It depends on the future...

If Hill steals the nomination, it is her great comeback. If Obama gets the nomination, it will be the close Texas outcome that helped him put out the fire. We won't know until the race ends...

[Lucinda]

Depends on the caucus results. CNN, at the moment, has Hillary up 4

in the primary delegate numbers.

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX

[MadBadger]

6. If the caucus numbers hold, obama will win by 3 in Texas.

[BzaDem]

3. I believe the popular vote.

The popular vote shows that 100,000 more voters voted for Clinton than Obama in Texas. Some may have voted **again** in the caucus, but I don't think we should be in the business of weighting some votes differently than others. Likewise, that's exactly what the delegates do -- punish voters for where they live. (If democratic voters live in areas where their neighbors are not democrats, their vote weight is diluted.)

I would say exactly the same thing if Obama won the popular vote. No question.

[Justitia]

39. You obviously are clueless about the caucuses in my state. -eom

[maddiejoan]

4. Clinton won it

Because she pulled off the percieved win first.

anything after that will be a lesser win --even if the media backtracks.

There will be no confetti for Obama on this.

The delegate counts are where they were before Tuesday --the difference is Obama needed to knock Hillary out.

He didn't.

Now it's on to a brokered convention. A 15 round fight with the winner decided on technical points.

[PseudoIntellect]

14. Obama didn't need to knock Hillary out.

Hillary NEEDED the extra momentum. She needed an enormous delegate victory yesterday, and she just didn't get it. She got 2 real victories and another moral victory, but in terms of delegates, she is failing.

[maddiejoan]

19. Not failing by much

Obama needed to knock her out.

Now he also will need Super Delegates to reach the magic number.

That's not a good place for him to be.

[seabeyond]

15. Because she pulled off the percieved win first..... bah hahahahhaha

so a non truth is presented but because it is preceived as a truth, it stands.

ya right. lol lol

i am sure not even my kids would buy this one

[maddiejoan]

20. Then you and your children

don't understand politics.

[seabeyond]

24. ahhhhh, well even in politics i at least like to attempt honesty. some still do

i thought more of the party did, but seems like about a half of it is now saying all this nontruth is just good ole politics.

[maddiejoan]

26. It has ever been thus

Obama included.

[seabeyond]

29. no.... but as obama lies, that too will be called. i dont like it either

party. and i am just good enough i can be honest about my dude along with your dudette.

[Justitia]

41. And YOU don't understand the prima-caucus system in my state. -eom

[maddiejoan]

43. I understand it very well

thank you for your concern.

[ClassWarrior]

21. Shhhhhhh... Let 'em get complacent...

:evilgrin:

NGU.

[seabeyond]

27. me..... shhhhhhh

nevah, lol lol. hubby would be impressed if that ever happened.

[thevoiceofreason]

17. Nope -- she won't last

Especially after he whips her in Wyoming and Mississippi.

The funny thing about that is that he likely will pick up more delegates in those 2 contests than she did in the whole of "Not Quite Super Tuesday."

[maddiejoan]

22. we shall see

[ClassWarrior]

25. You're right. She's unstoppable. Relax. She's got it in a walk.

NGU.

[seabeyond]

31. bah hahahaha

see i popped in and started laughing before i realized.

sssshhhhh, so you think i gave you up....

lol. sorry, just made me laugh

[maddiejoan]

34. I didn't say that

:shrug:

[JackORoses]

32. I'll take a Real Win over perceived win any day! Do they add up perceptions or delegates?

It's good to see you are at least admitting he won Texas now.

[maddiejoan]

35. I'm not.

Clinton won.

You don't get politics do ya?

[JackORoses]

38. You think there will be some magic trick where Hillary suddenly voids the delegate math

That is not politics, that is blind faith.

I know politics. I know what the Superdelegates are looking at, and that is the Pledged delegate count.

It is evident to a SD that Hillary can't catch him in PDs.
He is polling better against McCain.
He draws new and independent voters in droves.
He will have coattails a mile long.

They are going to go with a Real Winner.
Not someone posing for the media and the public trying to keep a losing campaign going.

[Justitia]

40. Uh no. He killed her in the caucuses by 10 pts. She only got the primary by 3. -eom

[Lord Helmet]

5. looks like Obama takes the prize that matters

[Colobo]

8. So, he wins then?

[Lord Helmet]

13. yes

[seabeyond]

7. you cant do popular vote. too many republicans vote in it and it isnt a real voice, but then

i guess they are in the caucus too.....

i guess the person who gets the most delegates wins

[PseudoIntellect]

9. Technically, Obama will have won it after caucuses are counted.

But effectively, Hillary has "won" Texas after winning the primary, because the media has pushed the momentum completely in her favor.

A delegate win would actually be meaningful for Clinton; losing delegates is a huge loss. Then again, math doesn't matter.

[efhmc]

10. Go to the Texas forum and read the caucus thread and you will

see that the Democratic voters of Texas are the winners of this election for the first time in a verrry long time.

[Bread and Circus]

11. This whole process is a race for delegates. It's that simple. Obama won.

[thevoiceofreason]

12. In the cold gray light of dawn, Barack wins

This is a marathon folks. The win might not be flashy, but when it gets piled on with the coming wins in Wyoming and Mississippi, it will sink in.

[seabeyond]

18. win is a win is a win..... works for me. n/t

[ExFreeper4Obama]

36. Exactly

He will win Wyoming and Mississippi. These are states that Hillary has to win and win big according to the numbers. Obama will win them big. The media will then finally realize what happened. Obama walked away with the nomination on Mar.4 while they were crowning Hillary the comeback kid.

:rofl:

[ClassWarrior]

16. In a primary, delegates determine the nominee.

NGU.

[ExFreeper4Obama]

23. Obama will take more delegates from Texas when all is said and done

The percentage difference in the caucus is 56% to 44%. Looking at the numbers it looks like Clinton will lose Texas and net only 4 delegates for the whole day for all 4 states. Clinton needed big wins to close the delegate lead. She got a net of 4 delegates for the day and 370 delegates are now off the table. Clinton is mathematically eliminated from winning the pledge delegate total.

[seabeyond]

33. early voting obama kick assed. caucus, obama kicked ass. i dont get tues election

not logical.

[JackORoses]

28. Don't call it a Comeback, He's been here for years!

Popular vote only serves to award Delegates.

Obama wins Delegates.

Obama wins.

QED

[Colobo]

37. You got it!