Krugman: Obama's electability going down, Hillary's going up

[johan helge]

Krugman (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/05/electability-again/):

I’ve calculated an Obama electability advantage index ™ — (Obama minus McCain) - (Clinton minus McCain). Here’s what the Ras numbers say:

< A figure which shows that this index has gone gradually from +11 three weeks ago to -4 now. >

Basically, through much of last month this tracking poll showed Obama winning comfortably against McCain, but McCain winning comfortably against Clinton — which is more or less the narrative of many Obama supporters. But if you believe Rasmussen, Obama has collapsed since then, while Clinton has improved — McCain/Clinton is now an approximate tie, while McCain beats Obama by five points (hence -4%).

It’s a long way to the general. But this sort of thing should worry Obama supporters: if he is the nominee, he’ll face much worse in the way of attacks than he’s facing right now.

Add: A new WaPo poll shows both Dems beating McCain, but Obama by more. Take both Rasmussen and this poll with a pile of salt. Actually, take the whole polling enterprise well salted. As it happens, I spent early Tuesday evening with some major insider types, who had exit polls and believed that Obama had put the thing away. I took the train home, got in very late, went to bed thinking that the nomination fight was over, and opened the papers to see that it wasn’t. Nobody knows anything.

[dkf]

1. I'd like to see Krugman's take on NAFTA.

Other than that, he's become a hack.

[johan helge]

19. Why can't Krugman jump into the mud,

just like the rest of us? He's not only an economist, but also a human being!

[oasis]

2. Super delegates, please take note. (eom)

[donheld]

3. Won't it be great when Paul stops shilling?

[johan helge]

21. Why should he be any more quiet than other people (nt)

[Seabiscuit]

4. Krugman gets it.

I'm surprised, however, that he fell for the spin from the "major insider types" before he went home Tuesday night.

Many if not most of us saw the bullshit splattered all over the media walls long ago, and haven't paid any attention to anything but the actual voting. Polls schmolls.

[LulaMay]

5. Yes, he does. I just got to meet him on the Air America cruise. He was great.

[Seabiscuit]

6. I would have loved to have been there.

[johan helge]

7. Tell us about it! (nt)

[LulaMay]

10. It was at the last party, and I was talking to him about health care.....

and it was a great conversation....then he got more quiet and I thought I was boring him, but turned out he was sea sick or something...he got kinda green and had to leave the party. I felt bad for him.

He was incredibly nice, and wore sandals with socks....cute.

I got a great picture with him too! I'll try to post it.

[johan helge]

12. Nice! (nt)

[FrenchieCat]

8. Poor Krugman........

Maybe he was promised a job by the Hillary camp if he wrote all of the tripe he's been writing. :eyes:

[johan helge]

9. Krugman: I'm unfit to serve

Krugman (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/24/unfit-to-serve/?scp=1&sq=krugman+unfit+serve&st=blog):

Unfit to serve

That’s me I’m talking about.

I’ve been getting a lot of mail from people insisting that I must be giving Obama a hard time because I want a Cabinet job in the next Clinton administration. It couldn’t be that I really care about getting a progressive agenda through, and that I’m worried by the way he keeps echoing conservative talking points.

So just to clear things up: I don’t want a job with the next administration — and it would be a big mistake to hire me. I realized a long time ago that I just don’t have the temperament for government work — remember, if you’re in public office you have to be careful about what you say, and remain tactful all the time. Plus, as every department head I’ve ever worked under knows, I’m the last person on earth who should be trusted with any kind of administrative responsibility.

[FrenchieCat]

11. He's got it right....he is not to be trusted....considering how much

he is shilling for Hillary Clinton. that would be Quid Pro Quo.

[LulaMay]

14. Oh brother...lighten up for god's sake. Krugman's a good guy, whether you agree with him or not.

He's a good columnist.

[johan helge]

15. Krugman: Statistical comparison

Krugman (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/04/statistical-comparison/?scp=2&sq=krugman+statistics+rich+dowd&st=blog):


February 4, 2008

Statistical comparison

By my count, 3 of my last 10 columns have criticized Barack Obama.
7 of Frank Rich’s 10 last columns, and 6 of Maureen Dowd’s last 10 columns, have criticized Hillary Clinton.

But, of course, that’s different: Hillary is eeevil, and deserves it.

[LulaMay]

16. He is a good writer and soul. Maureen Dowd doesn't hold a candle to him.

[LulaMay]

13. Yeah, I can't see him wanting a cabinet post! He struck me as a bit of a hippie and free spirit

his demeanor, his sandals and socks!

Definitely NOT a cabinet guy.

[endelfam]

17. more garbage from Krugman

This has been discussed before by other journalists in print. They have confirmed that Krugman has some kind of personal animosity against Obama and can not be considered an impartial or professional critic. I have no problem with reasoned arguments against Obama but Krugman is just a parrot screeching predictable things that reflect his personal bias.

[johan helge]

18. Krugman: Why not Obama

Krugman (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/04/health-care-thoughts/?scp=1&sq=krugman+obama+health+selling+point&st=blog):

Obama’s {health care} plan fell short — but I was initially willing to cut him slack, figuring that it could be improved. But then he began making the weakness of his plan a selling point, and attacking his rivals for getting it right. And in the process he has systematically trashed the prospects for actually achieving universal coverage.

The Obama plan is still vastly preferable to plans that rely on tax credits and the magic of the marketplace. But from where I sit, a dream {of universal health care} is dying — and progressive Obama supporters, caught up in the romance of his candidacy, don’t understand that he’s actually undermining their cause.

[BzaDem]

20. People, this isn't his opinion. Its using the same poll Obama supporters trash HRC with.

This is using the same poll over a period of about a month to show a trend. It is using the same poll that many of you Obama supporters were using to say HRC had no chance of winning, and Obama did. Now, the results of the poll change to results you don't like, and instead of being objective observers of new data, you just trash Krugman as being an HRC hack.

Quite predictable.

Personally, I take any GE hypothetical matchups with a huge grain of salt. I took it this way when Obama was winning, and I take it this way when HRC is winning. I believe polls always favor the more unknown candidate the farther from the GE you get (such as Kerry winning by 10 and Dukakis winning by 12 during the same time in those elections). Polls don't predict the swiftboating of unknown candidates, which is sure to happen.

But you can't keep saying Obama is more electable based upon polls but then ignore polls when they don't say what you want.