Clinton's "Big State" Myth does not hold up to scrutiny and she mobilizes Republicans

[powergirl]

Unfortunately, Clinton mobilizes the Republican base. The Republicans, without any rational basis, in my opinion, have such hatred toward the Clintons that they will vote for McCain just to keep her out of office. Obama, who they will trash, no doubt, does not inspire the same level of venom among Repubs. Therefore, they will probably stay home b/c they are not wild about McCain. So, once again, Obama is the best chance at us winning the Presidency. Clinton can't get us there. The complete article is at the link below.


The Clinton Campaign's post March 4th message is to forget about the delegate count and nominate Hillary because she can win the big states Democrats need in November. That argument simply doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Here's why:

1) Most of the "Big States" she has won are not battleground states in the fall. New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and California are solid blue states where Obama would do as well or better than Clinton in a general election against McCain.

2) Of the states she's won so far, the big exception to this rule is Ohio. Ohio is in fact a critical battleground state where Hillary has demonstrated that she has a leg up among lower income whites and older voters. But the polling also shows that in a general election, Barack offsets this advantage in Ohio among young voters and college-educated independents. In a McCain-Clinton match up the later group could gravitate heavily to McCain in Ohio.

In an Ohio general election, Obama's ability to attract independents and mobilize young and minority voters will trump Clinton's advantages among non-college whites -- a group that will break heavily for either Barack or Hillary against the "free trade" McCain.

(cut)

6) Finally, let's remember that the base of the Republican Party -- cultural conservatives -- is not so wild about McCain. They are accepting McCain with about as much enthusiasm as children take cough medicine. They know they need him, but they really aren't happy about it. The one thing that could energize the Republican base is their inveterate hatred for Hillary Clinton. Clinton would mobilize right-wing base voters the same way that hatred for Bush motivated Democrats in 2006. Why should we help galvanize the Republican base by nominating Hillary Clinton when we have another great choice?

All of these factors are born out in the consistent survey results that show Obama polls six to ten points better than Clinton against John McCain.

Clinton will have a difficult to impossible time winning the pledged delegate battle. Her only path to the nomination is convincing Super Delegates that she is the most electable. That dog won't hunt.





http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/clintons-big-state-myt_b_90115.html:bounce:

[NJmaverick]

1. Well thought out and completely correct

It's pretty much a no brainer, who the nominee should be.

[leftofcool]

2. "cultural conservatives -- is not so wild about McCain"

I hate to burst your bubble on this but they have already rallied around McCain as we all knew they would. The latest Rasmussen polls show Obama trailing Mccain by about 4 points and even with Clinton.

[powergirl]

3. Incorrect - Obama beats McCain easily - the majority of the polls confirm this

We need a Democratic president not just a nominee. A vote for Clinton is another vote for just a nominee. I will vote for Clinton if she wins the nominee - but it will be John Kerry all over again, the Repubs win and we are all screwed. I don't hate Clinton. I just want to win.

"Obama's advantage over McCain is the bigger one in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, a 12-point lead compared to Clinton's 6-point edge."


http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4394014&page=1

[k8conant]

4. Those were Washington State polls by Rasmussen

hardly capable of being extrapolated.

[powergirl]

7. Post #2 relied on Rasmussen

So, is that post accurate?

[NJmaverick]

6. Wrong poll

ABC/Washington Post has Obama 12 points up on McCain and Hillary 6 points. The conservatives have not rallied around McCain. They all took shots at one of their favorite targets, the NY Times, but they have hardly warmed up to the man. Plus you need to understand how the right works. They driving forces are fear and hate. Obama doesn't inspire that, Hillary does. When inspired they donate, they campaign and they get out the vote. When that isn't there they stay home, like in 2006.

[C_U_L8R]

5. Shuster did a good job of calling BS this morning

Hillary's greatest weakness is that that her campaign is often full of shit.
If I were Obama, I'd start nailing them on every single distortion, every triangulation, every over-estimation.
We can't suffer any more of the "definition of is is " clintonian weaselness. It's hateful, divisive, manipulative stuff.
There is no logical correlation between winning a state in a primary and winning it in the GE. Just look at history. Just look at the truth.
And if the Clinton's want to feed us all crap, then we gotta feed it right back to them.

(sorry, this just pisses me off)

[Window]

8. Sounds good to me.

[TexasThoughtCriminal]

9. Now will someone please bust the "experience" myth too?

I never understood the big state spin. She won Texas, but that doesn't mean she would win TX in the general. I wish it were true, but my money's going on McCain here.

And "experience" doesn't count for much when you make poor decisions because you trusted a lying sack of shit frat boy whose lies were plain to the rest of the world.