My take...Hilary wanted a do-over in FL and Michigan from the start...

[joeybee12]

...it's all about negotiating. She knew she wouldn't get the delegates seated, and the best she could hope for is a do-over in two states where she still will do very well the second time around. But if she had pushed for that, she'd have no room to negotiate, because she would be giving up her position right away. Always ask for more than what you want, and then you get what you really want.

[tyne]

1. But....

as we know, they'll have a do-over, spend millions of dollars, and Hillary may (not guaranteed) come out with 10 delegates.

[joeybee12]

3. No, but I think she'll still do well...for her it's about momentum, not

math...and if she can prove she has the momentum and wins 2 more big states later on...who do you think the Superdelegates are going to be inclined to vote for?

[WilyWondr]

8. a do over?

How long have you been following politics in the US?

How many times has there been a do over primary?

I am not aware of any.

[joeybee12]

17. Pretty damn long...please note that the DNC is now considering a

do-over for FL and Michigan.

[peace13]

32. If the DNC agrees to this

then they were in on it from the start as well. Think about that ! Peace, Kim Hussein

[joeybee12]

34. I don;t know, because I really don't think Dean likes Bill and Hilary...

...and vice-versa.

[peace frog]

11. Hillary could lose one or both states

in a do-over, particularly since Obama's momentum has so greatly surpassed hers. It's a risky strategy, and one in which she could lose out to Obama big time. Better for her to push for the current Florida and Michigan votes (both in her favor) to stand and have delegates seated, rather than go for repeat primaries she could lose.

[joeybee12]

27. But she won't get that, and i think she knows it...it would make for a

nasty fight at the convention...it's a win situation for her since she needs more delegates and probably believes she will get them here...I think she will.

[peace frog]

38. Then we'll agree to disagree

The race is not in her favor now nor will her prospects improve with the overwhelming majority she would need to prevail. Ain't gonna happen.

[joeybee12]

44. Time will tell...

I love cliches!

[underpants]

2. FL and MICH were basically frozen FOR Hillary by the DNC ruling

Let alone that Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan (and she still only got 55%)

The last thing she wants is to go head-to-head with Obama in either place

[joeybee12]

6. Oh, I think she does...especially in FL...a swing state where she'll

still win big...how do you think that will be spun? That she can win big swing states and has the big mo, and Obama is limping into the convention.

[peace frog]

15. Beg to differ

Florida would go to Obama the second time around. Edwards supporters (of which I am one) will go for Obama, and Hillary's campaign has lost a great deal of luster recently with negative advertising and unflattering media attention. It's Obama if there is a second Florida Democratic primary.

[joeybee12]

18. we ain't gonna agree...lots of seniors in FL who are a strong part

of HRC's core constituents.

[peace frog]

40. Hillary is too far behind to overtake Obama

She needs an overhelming majority to reverse her losing streak, and it will not happen.

[joeybee12]

48. For her, it's the momentum...people are already talking about BO's glass jaw...

...if he continues to falter, the superdelegates will rally behind her...big wins in Michigan and Florida later on will do just that.

[peace frog]

58. American voters want CHANGE

The polls back this up consistently. Hillary is the candidate of status quo, Obama the candidate of change.

[flyarm]

31. she will win bigger next time in Fla if it is only two on ballot.

remember we had all the candidates on our Fla ballot..Edwards won 11 counties..all dixiecrats..and Edwards pulled 14.6% of the vote in Florida..those votes will be up for grabs...

I was registered to be an Edwards delegate..he didn't win enough..( ha..you don't want my opinion of that) ..but all the people i know with the dem party here in SWFla..who supported Edwards..do not like Obama..and i just do not see Obama getting those votes...but they don't like Hillary either..but she is more likely to get the votes from Edwards folks..i'm sure there will some that will go either way..but not too many..

but our Dem party here is 100% behind Hillary..and have been.

I was the lone guy out supporting Edwards..and pretty much got a bit of a cold shoulder..but i and the Edwards people were "tolerated"...

Not many Obama supporters where i am..in fact i would say...people " vocally " aren't Obama supporters. People around where i am do not like the Obama "college kids" tactics..

and the seniors who really really understand health insurance..can not stand his plan ..and they tell you so..oh yes they do!! and they don't trust him on Social security..another subject the seniors around here are not quiet about....and they do not think he has enough experience..understand this ..we have the largest block of retired military prob in the nation...

they do not trust Obama..

and they all remember good times under the Clintons..they had major appreciations on their homes to retire with..they had great stock investment appreciation, there was relative peace ...Clinton was paying down the national debt..something very important to them..they remember good times under the clintons..

and now they see it all slipping away..for themselves and their children.

they can't afford their meds..Hillary's health plan is very very ver important to them..and they think Obama's is nothing but a pill to failure ..

i hear it every day..people know me and come up to me and tell me what they are thinking in my community..i was there delegate..the older people take that very seriously!!



that is just a FYI from SW FL

fly ..a 2004 democratic delegate for Fl

[BadgerLaw2010]

Obama is going to get shelled in both states. Wrong side of the "don't seat em" debate.

You seen how much Obama loses Florida to McCain by in GE trial heats ever since this mess started?

[joeybee12]

20. Good point...HRC's side was always that the votes and voters count...

...she has that history on her side going into a do-over.

[purji]

25. unless its michigan

my candidate wasn't even on the ballot,

[joshcryer]

26. Exactly. And many many Obama supporters don't want their votes to count.

This sentiment is not just on DU, but with a lot of Obama supporters. It will be very hard to reverse this sentiment that has inundated blogs and media for, oh, 6 months now.

Good luck trying to tell people who want their votes to count that they can count now after all this time saying they shouldn't.

[HooptieWagon]

46. Obama supporter here, also support following the rules

The rules were made a couple years ago. Everyone agreed to them at the time. Then Fl Dem Party acted with Reps to jump to front of the line. DNC within their rights to enforce the agreed upon rules. Unlike some, I place the blame where it belongs - the State Party "leaders" who broke the rules and then wanted them changed. Glad to see the DNC slapping them around.

[flyarm]

42. last poll i saw last week..Obama is 16% points behind McCain..in Fla.

Obama will not win Florida.


period.won't happen.

the old vets and their wives will vote McCain..over Obama

fly

[shaniqua6392]

54. Obama took his name off the ballot when he did not have to.

He was just kissing the ass of Iowa. Clinton got 55% in Michigan and uncommitted got around 40%. That means Obama and Edwards voters came up with a total of around 40% between the two candidates. If there is a re-vote here, she will still get the same amount of voters. She is well liked here in Michigan. It would probably end up at 55% to 45% in a re-vote IMO. I don't know what the heck they are going to do about this crap. It is all such a mess.

[underpants]

62. *****Your are right shaniqua6392 he did. I WAS WRONG. I learned something here today******

Thank you. Apparently he and Edwards and Richardson took their names off. Why and if they should have is another story but you are absolutely right.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/10/09/403731.aspx

[MercutioATC]

4. She WANTED them seated as-is...

...she'll SETTLE for a do-over.

I have no problem with a do-over. It's within the rules. Dean just needs to stand firm in the face of MI and FL officials' whining.

[joeybee12]

7. I'm saying she used that as her bargaining starting point...Dean kept

saying no freaking way would they be seated or have a do-over...now his position has changed.

[Muttocracy]

13. I think the do-over procedures are in the official DNC rules

On NPR yesterday he said he's OK with a do-over as long as it follows the rules, but no use of the existing election results for FL and MI.

[MercutioATC]

14. I never heard Dean say "no" to a do-over...

...as a matter of fact, I seem to remember him, from the beginning, saying that the delegates would not be seated and that the only recourse was for MI and FL to hold their primaries after Iowa and NH.

[joshcryer]

28. Seating them was within the rules, too, you know. Dean, Pelosi, Clinton, and Obama were all for...

...seating them. It's just in the last few months Obama (and especially his supporters) has been against it.

[joeybee12]

35. Yeah, but can you hear the cries of foul play if they had

been seated as per the original primary results?

[joshcryer]

41. Well, the key is that before no one thought seating them would matter.

Hillary wants to have a do-over there now, I believe, so she can get more political currency. She won FL once, she gets to win it again, it'd be great PR. I don't think she expected it to get down to the wire either, but I'm sure she left the option open, and used the threat of a DNC brokerage (to seat those delegates) as bargaining power.

[flyarm]

50. well Obama was the first candidate to say he would seat the delegates for Fla..

yes siree..before the ink was dry of his signature on the Pledge of the sanctions..he came into Tampa and said he would seat the delegates of Florida if he was the nominee....amazing how attitude change from when you are trying to manipulate the vote ..and when you do not win the vote...

but pssssssssss..we remember he did this and this has been widley distributed among dems here..as a reminder...for those who don't remember..

that the only one who broke his pledge was Obama ..when he was cheating the other candidates..and the voters.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2007/sep/30/obama-vows-do-whats-right/?news-breaking

Obama Vows To 'Do What's Right'

By WILLIAM MARCH and ELAINE SILVESTRINI The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 30, 2007

Barack Obama held an impromptu news conference after a Tampa fundraiser Sunday.



Fundraising Totals | Primary States | Where They Stand

TAMPA - Barack Obama hinted during a Tampa fundraiser Sunday that if he's the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, he'll seat a Florida delegation at the party's national convention, despite national party sanctions prohibiting it.

Obama also appeared to violate a pledge he and the other leading candidates took by holding a brief news conference outside the fundraiser. That was less than a day after the pledge took effect Saturday, and Obama is the first Democratic presidential candidate to visit Florida since then.

Obama and others have pledged not to campaign in Florida until the Jan. 29 primary except for fundraising, which is what he was doing in Tampa.

But after the fundraiser at the Hyde Park home of Tom and Linda Scarritt, Obama crossed the street to take half a dozen questions from reporters waiting there.

The pledge covers anything referred to in Democratic National Committee rules as "campaigning," and those include "holding news conferences."

Obama seemed unaware the pledge he signed prohibits news conferences. Asked whether he was violating it, he said, "I was just doing you guys a favor. … If that's the case, then we won't do it again."

[WilyWondr]

5. Negotiate?

Why would anyone negotiate a change in the primary rules while we are in the primary season?

Like the NFL rules committee during the playoffs to decide whether they should change the rules for playoff games. Not necessary.

[joeybee12]

10. FL and Michigan are states she will win the second time around...

...having the delegates seated without the do-over would blow up in her face...my original point stands...geta do-over and win again and show you ahve the momentum.

[Dogmudgeon]

16. It's negotiable because it IS within the rules.

That's what Dean is trying to make clear. The states and their Democratic party organizations have to submit proposals and make arguments for their positions.

I think the rationale behind promoting it is to allow FL and MI to break a tie, a near-tie, or a popular-vote/delegate-total conflict. By June, it could just as easily be Obama pushing for the "do-over".

Then there's the prospect of losing FL and MI to the Republican Party, and don't think McCain won't campaign hard on it. Disenfranchising nearly two million people in two states will have serious consequences of its own.

--p!

[Captain Hilts]

9. MI and FL are not comparable. nt

[joeybee12]

39. Only in the sense that the demographics favor Hilary...

...seniors and working class.

[flyarm]

12. Bill Nelson was on our local news station today with state legislators

behind him,..and he said there would be no re-do..that the state budget is on lifesupport right now..there is no state money for a re-do

it would cost between $18-25 million to do..

and understand..there would have to be a second election as well..as the state dem party had an election saturday for delegates

but the local Bay9news in Tampa.. keeps saying a decision would have to be made within a month to do a re-do..

**now don't flame me..i am simply the messenger..i don't give a rats ass what happens because my candidate was and is still Edwards..i am simply telling you what they are saying here on the news..i have no dog in this freaking fight!!

fly

[joeybee12]

36. Yeah, but that all could be posturing as well...to get the DNC to

actually pay for it... I always believe anything any politician says has at least 3 motives behind it!

[flyarm]

52. ahhh no the state really is on life support..

and the taxpayers would raise holy fing hell if the state decided to pay 25 million to do another election for Democrats...

and do not think Charlie Crist would do it with Fla money..he may be MCCains running mate..( that is the rumour)..

this is a swing state the repigs would throw a shit fit if the state paid for another election for dems..

won't happen.

If the DNC wants it..the DNC will have to pay for it..i am pretty damn sure of that.

hell there was just a run on the state coffers from bad sub prime investments that have gone bust..most counties only got penny's to the dollar..a red-do is not going to be paid for by the state.


we have the Highest forclosure rate in the nation right now of homeowners....i seriously doubt the state legislators will pay for a re-do..the dem party better figure it out themselves..because there is no money in the state budget..for a 2nd election..for the same thing for one party..not the majority party in this state.


fly

fly

[redqueen]

19. I don't care about strategy... I want the state parties to pay for do-overs

for the voters' sake. They deserve a fair chance to vote, and the state parties deserve to go into debt for their idiocy.

[joeybee12]

22. Hee-hee

I guess I agree..just don't punish the actual voters who will be pissed in November if they feel they were short-changed...the Dems need both states in November.

[redqueen]

23. Exactly... give them a fair chance at voting...

and punish the state parties for their stupidity. It's a win-win.

[joeybee12]

33. I do hope that this whole primary/caucus mess gets straightened

out by 2012...seriously, it makes no sense...and i can only imagine what foreign observers are trying to make out of all this.

[redqueen]

61. Foreign observers see our sham of a system for what it is. (nt)

[flyarm]

55. no shit..someone posted yesterday ..5 of the small states that Obama won

5 states..have electoral college votes = 19 combined..

florida has 25..all by it's self.

someone needs to educate some of the young Obama supporters ...about Electoral college votes..and how a president is really elected..i have no patients left with them...

fly

[HooptieWagon]

30. FL State party has no where near enough money to pay for a revote

State doesn't have the money either. I don't see why the DNC, who are in the right, should pay for a re-vote, but they have offered to pay for a caucus. Sen Nelson is adamantly against a caucus.

[redqueen]

59. Why does Nelson have a say?

:wtf:

Let them take out loans. Personal loans if they have to. The arrogant SOBs who made the call should pay.

[flyarm]

53. good luck ..the FDP doesn't have much money..in fact hardly any..

a re-do our local news has said all day will cost between $18-25 million bucks.

easy for people to sit here and yell..re-do re -do..

another thing to pay for it..

lets face it..Dean fucked up..no one wants to say it..but i sure as hell will ..dean fucked up.

this bill that the repigs and some dems stuck the change of primary date on..was primarily to get rid of paperless auditless DRE voting machines...that rhe citizens of Florida demanded be stopped from being used in our elections.

Dean and the DNC should have been cheering the Florida democratic voters who fought so hard for that bill ...against all odds...but what did DEAN AND THE DNC DO ..WE WERE PUNISHED FOR FIGHTING FOR
VOTER VERIFIED PAPER BALLOTS IN OUR ELECTIONS..


and it is Dean who is being the asshole..because his candidate is Obama...well ya know what..as a florida voter.. and someone who has fought for our votes to count..and put up my own and my hubby's money to try to get audits of our elections ..( of which was an impossibility) and who fronted the money to get a phony assed so called nothing audit.....many of us floridians put up our own money and time..yes lots of our time ..and lots of our own money... ..when the DNC told us to shut up and go away..about the voting machines...i don't give a shit what Dean wants..because when we were fighting to have our votes count..the DNC and the dem party didn't give a rats ass that our votes were being robbed in Florida.

They didn't give a damn that the machines were being tampered with..they ignored us for 8 years..and kept telling us to go away and just shut up...

and even their own candidate...who had 18,0000 votes stolen..they fucked...

so ya know what..i really don't give a shit what Dean has to say anymore.

We have i believe the largest block of Vets ..who fought for that vote to count..that are pretty damn pissed right now at the Dem party..and Dean..they don't want to hear a bunch of bullshit.,.they want their vote to countr..they went to their polling nplaces on Jan 29th and they voted...

they are a damn big block of voters ..Dean and the DNc are pissing off..

and Charlie Crist..a repig..is saying all the right stuff to them..their votes should count..

and what is dean doing..and the dem party..stealing their vote..in their eyes..

They are not going to vote for Obama....Obama is behind McCain among Florida voters by 16%...but we sure are sending them to the arms of McCain..


well bend down and kiss off these electorial college votes.and say ..hello President McCain.

yes dems are their own worse enemy's....

Ya know when you are one sitting behind a computer and not in the trenches fighting the fight and paying for it ..damn it..it sure is easy to bullshit...isn't it?

fly

[redqueen]

60. How is this Dean's fault? FL agreed to the rules.

Y'all were forced to schedule the primary early... so you could get VVPB? Seriously?

That doesn't seem to make any sense...

[joshcryer]

There's no evidence she was ever against the voters in FL and MI. This is indisputable.

People here will spread lies and disinformation to 'prove' that she wants to "steal the election" and so on, but all along she has been for the will of the voters.

Today Dean is urging a revote.

Pretty cool stuff.

[HooptieWagon]

21. No, I don't think so

The first plan was to force the DNC to seat the delegates. The DNC refused (FL and MI broke the rules). Then they tried via the courts - don't know about MI, but a Florida Judge ruled the DNC is within their rights to make the rules and enforce them. Appeals aside, the HC camp is now trying to settle for a revote figuring the few delegates she might gain is better than nothing. Obviously they would prefer the results of the first election, where based on name recognition alone Clinton got about 50% of the vote, compared to Obama's 33% and Edward's 15%. If there is a revote, then I think Clinton camp will be in for a rude awakening. With campaigning allowed the second time, and Edwards and the other candidates off the ballot, Obama could win FL, or at least keep Clinton's delegate edge to single digits.

[joeybee12]

24. I still say I'm right...he was negotiating and in negotiating you know

you're going to give up some of your position.

I still say she'll win FL big with all those seniors.

[joshcryer]

29. Uh. Dean has no say in seating them or not. The DNC, the Convention, does.

Dean doesn't *want* it to come to the convention, so he has, today, voiced the desire for a revote, since at the convention a lot of squabbling could happen over MI and FL and it could by virtue of that become itself a brokered convention.

[HooptieWagon]

37. You DO realize Dean is the DNC Chairperson, don't you?

yes the decision to not seat FL and MI delegates was made in committee (Harold Ickes was on the committee, BTW), but Dean's role is to enforce those decisions. Quite frankly, I don't think Dean cares what FL and MI do, as long as they follow the rules. Revote, caucus, vote by mail, whatever - as long as FL and MI submit their plan for selecting delegates to the Rules Committee in time for them to determine if DNC rules are being followed.

[joeybee12]

43. Dean said something today about the ceritifcation committtee

deciding whether to seat them...not sure how the whole thing works...but he has been vocal previously saying it ain't gonna happen...sounds like he's relenting a bit.

[madfloridian]

No, he is not relenting. Credentials committee is other elected delegates

and he said they were not likely to ok breaking the rules.

[madfloridian]

63. No, he is not relenting. Credentials committee is other elected delegates

and he said they were not likely to ok breaking the rules.

[joshcryer]

45. You don't understand, at the Convention anyone can table a proposal. One which to seat them.

Simple. Dean would have no say. It'd be the delegates or superdelegates who had that say.

Since FL and MI already matter to the vote (since no candidate can win without superdelegate votes) Hillary and her delegates could propose seating FL and MI. You could have a hundred ballots saying to seat them. Then what? Obama and his delegates shoot it down ever time? Do you know what that would look like, politically? Do you even comprehend?

Dean doesn't want it to come to that which is why he suggested revote today. He wants to just take that possiblity out of the equation. He's a genius.

[joshcryer]

47. BTW, given the dynamics of this campaign, I think Hillary wants a do-over more than seating them.

So yep, they're all a bunch of political opportunists (Obama flip flopping on seating them, being for it and now against it, and so on). So what? Hillary has at least been consistant. She wants their votes to count!

[joeybee12]

49. She now has the momentum...winning both the second time can only

help that.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

51. Hillary could have ENSURED a do-over by REMOVING HER NAME from the Michigan

ballot, just as Obama and Edwards did. But NOO...OOOO, she and some other candidates evidently had Macchiavellian larceny in their hearts. See the Michigan Primary sample ballot at http://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/PriPresBal_final2_218616_7.pdf for a list of those who DID NOT WANT A DO-OVER. Hillary is at the top.

I read someplace that major candidates wanted to remove thier names from the Florida primary as well, to ensure a do-over, but Republican Frist's Secretary of State would not permit withdrawals of any names. This potential catastrophe for the Democratic Partiy in Denver was set in motion by Republican dirty tricks as well as those of greedy Macchiavellian Democrats.

[Life Long Dem]

56. From the start Hillary said she left her name on the Michigan ballot because "it won't count anyway"

Now that she needs delegates Michigan and Florida all of a sudden count (for her).

Bullshit! And now we will hear her complain about Obama going on the attack. Go figure. She has been pounding Obama since the first debates, and now it is a no no.:popcorn:

[PassingFair]

57. Fine,. Whatever. Give her a re-do.

Let's get it done.

[WHAT]

64. C is for cheating...

censure...