Theory: Why Obama Will Continue to Win The Superdelegate Race From Here On...

[writes3000]

I genuinely believe both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are strong, capable candidates. I think the superdelegates see strengths and potential weaknesses with each of them. But I think Obama's momentum, fund-raising, message and outreach had many superdelegates starting to lean in his direction.

Until this past week.

I believe one event this week shifted this superdelegate race in a fundamental way.

Was it the March 4th primaries? No. While it boosted Clinton's campaigns, the SDs know that it doesn't change the delegate numbers really. And they know that Obama was put through the wringer by Clinton just to come out with a 2 state to 2 state split.

No, I think the fundamental event was Hillary Clinton telling the world that Barack Obama has NOTHING to bring to the White House but a speech. It was her telling the world that John McCain has more experience (and therefore by her argument he's more qualified) than Barack Obama.

The Democratic superdelegates aren't stupid people. They heard that shot, loud and clear. And it was evidence that Hillary Clinton is willing to sabotage Barack Obama and all of the Dem races in the fall - unless they do as she wishes.

The Democratic party PRIDES itself in being fair and inclusive. That's why the primaries are representational as opposed to winner takes all.

I believe Hillary Clinton's attack of Barack Obama and his side of the Democratic party was a red alarm shock to the party. It was an incoming attack. Shot from WITHIN the party.

So what do the superdelegates do?

They like Barack for his message, his command and his outreach. And now they have every reason to be frightened, insulted and threatened by Hillary. She's willing to tear down her Democratic rival and lift up the Republican nominee all so she has a shot to win.

A week ago, Hillary said she was honored to be on the stage with Barack Obama. Then yesterday, Hillary says she cares most about getting either Democratic nominee into the White House.

Too late, Hillary. The party now knows - you are absolutely lying. And the Democratic party's chances in the fall are at risk because of you.

Despite the party leaders pleas for everyone to freeze, you will now see superdelegate after superdelegate after superdelegate endorse Obama.

The superdelegates are going for the candidate they can trust. The remaining candidate that hasn't stabbed the entire party in the back.

[Mme. Defarge]

1. K&R!

[antigop]

2. interesting....we'll have to see n/t

[thevoiceofreason]

3. 5 so far today

K&R

[writes3000]

4. I know. It certainly doesn't look like a "freeze" to me.

The SDs can't all come out at once. Strategically, it doesn't make sense. But I do think we'll continue to see a few more each day.

[Diane R]

5. I couldn't agree more. Lets get this thread to the top of the page; it's right on.

[writes3000]

6. Thanks, Diane.

Hillary must have forgotten that her biggest audience right now are the superdelegates. Big blunder.

[backscatter712]

7. Hillary's lead is diminishing rapidly.

Obama:207, Clinton: 242

She's only 35 superdelegates ahead. Very soon, she's going to fall behind completely.

[writes3000]

8. I remember when she was over 100 SDs ahead.

He's catching up so, so quickly.

[lmbradford]

9. I hope so....

This does make a lot of sense when you think about it. These people all have to go through re-elections. They don't want to be seen as the ones who thwarted the will of the people. The party will trump the Clinton Machine I think.....make that I hope.

[K Gardner]

10. I agree 100% and have been thinking the same thing.. its not all about

"big states" or "momentum". Its about, for some, integrity and honor. Neither of which Hillary posesses. Good post. K&R

[Dawgs]

11. I think he catches her in SDs after the Mississippi win.

And at that point he will be leading in every category.

Good post, BTW.

[death to the DLC]

12. fantastic assessment! n/t

[Laelth]

13. I'm with you, and I hope you're right. k&r

:dem:

-Laelth

[ForeignSpectator]

14. Here is what the supers should do...

Obama wins because he has the most pledged delegates. But the supers should vote again, in massive favor of Obama just for the "message".

And, I hope you're right!