More detailed SUSA GE polls results.

[slick8790]

By now, most of us have seen these:






Encouraging, ain't it? But when you look at the actual polls, they give an even further story.

In the Obama matchup:



Look at that. Some things I noticed:

-SUSA gave McCain NJ on the Obama map, even though they tie there. Seems odd considering NJ has been consistently blue for 20 years now.
-TEXAS is competitive, according to the polls. Yeah, I have no idea how that happened. McCain takes it by 1%, making it firmly up in the air.
-McCain also wins Florida and Nebraska by 2 and 3 percent, respectively, making them also effectively swing states.
-Virginia is a tie they gave to Obama. I'm not so sure about that, but VA turning blue is my big hope for this year.

Conclusion: This map, if it holds to November, could contain a much larger Obama victory than it appears to.


Now to Clinton:


-Michigan they gave to McCain, even though the vote is tied. I don't know, I have a hard time imagining Hillary losing MI.
-New Mexico, which is firmly in Obama's column, is tied for Hillary, but they gave it to her anyway.
-Washington state is given to McCain on the map, but is within 2 points in the polls. Firmly undecided.
-For all of Hillary's supposed strength in PA, she only wins by 1%. Tossup for sure.
-Tennessee! Wow. Hillary is tied with Big Mac there. That'd be a nice flip if we can swing it.

Conclusion: Hillary's map makes a few more assumptions for both her and McCain. I'd say that matchup is still a tossup, with Hillary favored, in my book at least.


Overall? First, I think SUSA is being a little irresponsible handing out EVs for states well within the margin of error. A third category would be nice. But secondly, it shows that this election, regardless of who we nominate, could end up very close. This makes it absolutely essential that we all cool down a bit, and consider what could happen with a President McCain. Then we go out and work our asses off for whatever Dem wins!

[NoodleBoy]

1. oh my god this post makes me want to piss myself with glee.

seriously, I've been drinking alot of water today.

[slick8790]

2. Heh.

Well, that's what I set out to do. :)

[tekisui]

3. A thing of beauty.....

[book_worm]

4. Obama is within 3 in SC, 2 in NC, 4 in SD and 1 in TX (and 1 in Fl)

he would make the south and west competitive.

[NJSecularist]

7. South Dakota? No way!

Those are very preliminary polls. There is no way he wins South Dakota. Likewise for Texas. Who knows about South Carolina and North Carolina.

[book_worm]

8. Perhaps

but Bill Clinton got 48% I think in SD in '96, it's not impossible. Texas, yes, that maybe optimisitc, but if VA can go Dem I think Obama has a good chance in NC and perhaps SC, for one reason both states have huge black population. If turnout among them is strong and he gets 90 plus percent and wins a decent share of the white vote (even between 35-40 percent) he can win those states, I think.

[slick8790]

9. Clinton got 43% to Dole's 46% in 1996.

That was also with Perot in there. I dunno, I think SD is a pretty big stretch. SD hasn't gone for the Dems since 1964.

[NJSecularist]

5. There is no way McCain takes NJ in any matchup

Take that to the bank.

[rinsd]

6. Thanks for the post. Plenty to be optimistic about though the real work has yet to be done.

[John Q. Citizen]

10. Obama is 50% or better in 14 states, Hill is 50% or better in 7 states

And against Hillary, McCain is at 50% or better in
18 states and

Against Obama he's at 50% or better in only 15 states.

Obama looks stronger to me.

[andym]

11. The way polls like this look like in April. May and June will likely determine the super delegates

[slick8790]

12. Shameless kick. n/t

[Robbins]

17. Polls

after all they are thrown at Obama he Is still the strongest candiate.When you consider they are giving states to Mccain with him in the margain of error his win could be even larger.Let's be fair to Hillary and say she could win too.I am going to do what the media and her supporters won't do and be fair.

[grantcart]

13. good job k and r

[thesubstanceofdreams]

14. Those polls are great

If Obama is the nominee, our traditional concept of red and blue states goes out of the window. Hopefully we can find a nominee soon and focus all energies on defeating McLame without giving up a single state.

[slick8790]

15. Kickeroo. n/t

[slick8790]

16. One last kick and I'm out. n/t

[Tom Rinaldo]

18. Clinton running stronger in Louisiana than Obama?

That is a surprise. But of course they both lose. This is really my way of kicking this thread.

[usregimechange]

19. kick