So Hillary wins the nomination

[mudesi]

Super delegates overturn the pledged delegates at the convention and Hillary Clinton wins the nomination. (Mathematically, the only way for her to win at this point).

It is August 28, 2008, and the Democrats have finally chosen their nominee.

In the previous 6 months, the Republicans have had a nominee named John McCain. He has raised money in all of this time, attacking the Democrats, while both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have spent money attacking each other.

There are only 2 months to go before the general election. John McCain has had a 6 month head start. He has more money. His message has been out there. He hasn't been attacked by either Democratic candidate because they were busy attacking each other.

In addition to this, Barack Obama supporters feel completely dejected after having their pledged delegate lead overturned by a bunch of party insiders. Republicans are energized to vote against Hillary Clinton. Half of the Democrats are demoralized.

Anyone disagree with me?

[Sarah Ibarruri]

1. Let me rename your OP: So Obama wins, but let's use our wild imaginations for a moment nt

[verges]

24. If Obama wins

it won't be because the super-delegates ignored the popular and pledged delegate votes. Therefore, the most troubling aspect of the OP is moot. Mathematically (and it is all about the numbers) Clinton cannot win without the SD's overiding the delegates. That would make the entire primary/caucus system a sham!

[RoadRage]

39. BINGO!!! WE HAVE A WINNER FOLKS!

This is exactly what makes the OP post 180 degrees different from the post above this one.

In one scene we have someone stealing the nomination.. in the other we have them winning it as they should!

[AJH032]

40. no

because Hillary and Obama will be separated by a negligible small percentage of pledged delegates. If there were a clear front runner, the super delegates would not be able to overturn it, even if they wanted to. Therefore, the entire primary/caucus system is not a sham. It's just not the only system in the entire nominating process.

[verges]

46. If the SD's

make the decision, ignoring the votes and pledged delegates, what was the point of the primaries and caucuses?

[daleo]

48. True, but then what would be the point of superdelagates?

Either way, you have a contradiction.

[ORDem]

47. I just called Howard Dean and he will call you for the exact definition of

"negligible small percentage".

[lmbradford]

51. votes are votes

Delegates are delegate. If you win by one, you still win. Have you never been in any sort of contest.....Geez

[wisteria]

53. Remember, the Clinton's are not above anything.

The Supreme Court gave us Bush in 2000, I will not rule out the Clinton's pushing the SD into voting for her somehow. They figure they can make it alright with the party later and that Dem's will still come out and vote for her in the General election.

[juajen]

2. You're absolutely right. Obama should stand down.

Enough said.

[washingdem]

25. LOL he's ahead in delegates

[verges]

28. Why?

Why? I understand the people asking Clinton to stand down. They give a reason, Clinton has already lost. Those asking Obama to step down don't ever give a reason.

[elfin]

3. And my sister-in-law and many friends will

stay home or even (gasp) vote for Mclame.

I will vote for her, but no money or time spent for her as for candidates past.

I think Obama can hold on to Clinton supporters in the end, but I do not think Hillary can count on the same, just from my anecdotal experience.

An LTE from an anguished relative -- not published yet to my knowledge --

"This is being sent to the NY Times, Chris Mathews, Cafferty Report, and Hillary Clinton.

I am an older, upper-middle class white woman who lost all hope last night for any kind of better future where basic goodness trumps slippery ambition and mean spiritedness. Barack had made me hope that maybe we could get away from the Karl Rove type of politics. But that Hillary triumphed because she Karl-Roved Barack has shattered any remaining hope I had that we can ever change our ways. I am a life-long Democrat who has worked hard to elect people who could make a difference and give everyone the opportunities I have enjoyed. Any wonky facts Hillary knows better than Barack, he can learn, but she has shown that she will never learn how to make us proud of how we conduct ourselves to reach these goals. I cannot vote for the Clinton means of getting to their own personal ends. Decency is more important in the long run."

[DemBones DemBones]

10. You're mistaken. A lot of us would not vote for Obama,

would go third party instead. He can't beat McCain, anyway.

I'd vote for Clinton grudgingly but Obama cannot get my vote at all. He went too far with his audacity of hype and his bald-faced lies.

[earthlover]

23. OK...WHAT bald faced lies? Or are you just flaming?

[wisteria]

54. I don't think Clinton can beat McCain.

And, if the Clinton's think Obama supporters will come around and vote for her -well, I wouldn't count on that. I personally want 0 more years of the Clinton's.

[Renew Deal]

4. And McCain wins at least 35 states

I agree.

[Bok_Tukalo]

5. I disagree with you

He is fighting on two fronts. He will be getting it from both of them while at the same time be unable to choose a target. Up until Tuesday, he seemed (in tandem with Clinton) to go after Obama. The question is if that will continue. I don't think it will.

[ContinentalOp]

16. That's true.

All of the media attention on the Dem race can cut both ways too. On the one hand McCain gets an easy ride since there's no scrutiny on him at this point. But on the other hand he's not benefiting from any attention either. Since the Dem fight is the hot, interesting story, he just kind of seems irrelevant and boring at this point.

[earthlover]

26. You honestly believe the media won't give him equal time or more so?

He will every day make media events that have to be covered. He will get his name and face in the media every day. He doesn't have dummies running his campaign, and the media would totally not try to ignore him.

Meanwhile, there is Hillary every week saying McCain is better than Obama....yadayada....

Obama becomes the nominee eventually. He is crippled from the start. Hillary retreats, does not help much. In 2012 she comes back to run again. No big loss for Hillary, just 4 years, she can wait.

[ContinentalOp]

6. No.

Nobody with an ounce of common sense disagrees with you.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

7. After 6 Months, He'll Still Be John McCain, And She Still Won't Be.

And in November, no matter what, we'll still thump his punk ass...

[wileedog]

27. About the only candidate McCain CAN beat is HIllary

Remember the base of his own party can't stand him. About the only thing that will energize a large group of Republicans to come out and vote would be to vote against the Hated Hillary Clinton. Coupled with ticked off Obama supporters, Hillary being nominated via SDs in Denver is the absolute worst possible case scenario.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

29. No It Isn't. She'll Beat Him Just Fine.

But you just go on right ahead with your melodramatic defeatism, ok? :hi:

[RoadRage]

41. Hello Head.. meet clouds!

No reason or justification for your comment.. just "nope, totally disregard all facts in the OP that make sense, and then say "Hillary will win.. she will, she will, she will... because I want her to soooooo bad".

I don't know if Obama can win (even though I want him to) the General Election. I do know if Hillary only gets the nomination via Super Delegates, she has no chance at winning. When 1/2 of your party stays home because they hate you - you're not going to do very well. Even if the other half "REALLY" want it.

And, if this "steal" goes down in August.. there will only be 2 & 1/2 months between then and the General Election.. not exactly a lot of time for people to "get over it". Hell.. it's 8 years later, and I still dispise Bush for stealing '00. I guess you could say I hold a grudge.

[calico1]

8. And half the Democrats will be demoralized

if Obama is the nominee.

[krawhitham]

22. but good

democrats will still vote for him, if she wins you completely lose the young vote. Half will vote against Hill just because she beat their man and the other half will stay home

[Cant trust em]

9. Here is my disagreement

in the months between now and the convention, we stay in the news cycle since we are campaigning and John McCain is out of the limelight.

[RunningFromCongress]

11. Let her win the nomination and lose in november and go down as the one who ruined the country

That will forever be the Clinton legacy

[Unsane]

12. and the party?

[Dogmudgeon]

13. "If Barack Obama isn't the nominee, we'll destroy the party."

That's a sad, sad commentary from people who have promoted the "narrative" that "Hillary will destroy the party before she loses."

But I guess I should have expected Team Obama to practice some pretty sophisticated, irony-based message inoculation.

--p!

See also
http://www.as.wvu.edu/~sbb/comm221/chapters/inocul.htm">Inoculation Theory
http://www.uky.edu/~drlane/capstone/persuasion/ino.htm">Inoculation Theory (McGuire, 1961)
http://lass.calumet.purdue.edu/cca/gmj/fa03/graduatefa03/gmj-fa03-bdhg2.htm">The Bush Administration, Inoculation Strategies, and the Selling of a `War`

[anigbrowl]

17. Frankly I thinkshe'll destroy the party for us.

Not having Oabam to vote for in teh general election would be hard, but somehow I could manage. However, I am not very optimistic about a Hillary Clinton presidency.

[Tribetime]

14. I think I'll throw up

I could not watch Bush anytime he came on T.V., now I can't watch Clinton, all I can see is another 8yrs of the same old thing. Someone with a huge ego that will do anything to get their way.

[Upton]

15. Nope

And many, many Obama supporters will never support a candidate picked by party insiders. Say hello to Pres. McCain.

[LSparkle]

18. Nope. I think you have it just about right.

[lapfog_1]

19. yes, I disagree.

Because it won't wait until the convention.

The contests end with Puerto Rico. After that, there isn't anything to decide other than the Super Delegates.

OBama will have the pledged delegate lead, probably by 120 to 150 (and that includes BIG wins for Hillary in PA and a few other spots between now and then).

The credential committee will be dominated by Obama delegates. The party elders and the Supers know that the credentials committee will never seat the FL and MI delegates unless there is a sanctioned primary (like ly a caucus). They also know that overturning the decision of the voters will destroy the party.

It should have been this week (but for Rush Limbaugh, it would have been this week), but come June, they will approach Hillary and tell her that it's over. We will have a nominee by June.

[Zachstar]

31. If that was the case Clinton would have exited by now.

The math proves that unless Jesus himself endorses Clinton (A joke people) this thing will go to the convention with Obama having vast leads over Clinton.

From what I am reading Clinton may be thinking about some back room deals or (Not yet proved) blackmailing. Most likely it will making the case about electablity and a promise that she will not run again in 2012 if Obama decides to run and a grand acceptance into her VP slot. The supers know damn well that she will make something happen to "encourage" Obama not to run in 2012. (Note: That something does not mean I am saying she will blackmail him. She may just get to know him so much he will feel like he is betraying his president if he runs again. Keep in mind Obama likes to be friendly where possible.)

Thankfully neither the supers or Obama will likely buy such bullshit and this will end. Tho it will likely be too late. She needs to exit now in my view.

[lapfog_1]

37. No... because the party elders are loath to make such a move

until it is mathematically impossible for Hillary to gain a majority of pledged delegates.

Right now, it's just very unlikely.

May 20th is the magic date (imho)... that's when Kentucky and Oregon vote. If Obama has a pledged delegate lead of 87 at that point (I think it will be higher than that), then there is no way for Clinton to enter the convention with more pledged delegates.

However, even then they may wait until after Puerto Rico. The Credentials committee has only a few hundred members, with each side getting membership proportional to their delegate counts. Obama needs to have at least 1 or 2 more members in the credentials than Clinton will have... if he does, he can block any attempt to seat the FL and MI delegates (uncertified).

At that point the endgame starts, the only way for Clinton to win is to convince enough supers to vote her way (and, yes, there has been talk already of bribery and blackmailing... even of pledged delegates). However, there will be so much scrutiny of the Super delegates and their votes and public statements, that for even a small group to be blackmailed or bribed without discovery... seems unlikely.

[backscatter712]

20. In that scenario, I'll write-in Barack Obama. n/t

[Zachstar]

21. It will be a disaster for the democrats.

Keep in mind that not only does he have a HUGE head start he also has the worst case scn gameplan that he has been designing to use against Clinton for 8 years. He will destroy her.. And THEN move on to destroying the democrats running for election in congress.

The many younger voters who were so excited about the process will feel like they have been useless and grow disinterested. Maybe even going to the other side.

The end result will be a huge win for McCain likely followed by war in Iran. Suspending of many civil liberties. HUGE HUGE HUGE tax breaks for companies as well as complete immunity and cash rewards for companies that spy on Americans. Then the massive growth of mercenaries acting as our armed forces.

Something also tells me he will be able to sell things to a population desperate in 4 years so well to us that he will be the president for 8 years. By then his actions will likely mean a horrifying face of America where gas is over 10 USD, Every police force is armed with pain guns upgraded with the ability to kill thanks to likely a law passed by a very large republican majority congress. By then he will likely have sold his case for abolishing elections and becoming president for life.

You see people Earth is not going to wait another decade for us to start taking action to fix things. McCain will likely lead to an earlier downfall of civilization and the climate with his policies that benefit big biz and ignore the GLARING warning signs we have now.

Clinton winning the nomination will likely see the end of the democratic party.

This is all in my view...

[Bright Eyes]

30. You're right.

A whole lotta Democrats won't be voting, if thats the case.

[Armstead]

32. I'd like to disagree but I can't

[TheDonkey]

33. That's if Hillary doesn't drop out and join McCain's ticket.

I think she may drop out even if she steals the nomination!

[Donald Ian Rankin]

35. And if Obama isn't exposed as a shapeshifting alien assassin

which is about as likely.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

34. The OP is a barefaced lie - it's perfectly possible Clinton will win the pledged delegate count.

According to wikipedia, at present, Obama has approximately 1362 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1210 and Edward's 26

There are 3253 in total. That leaves 691 still to be assigned.

The OP is untrue, plain and simple. Please check facts, next time.

[Dogmudgeon]

36. Facts? We don't need no steenking facts!

The Obama partisans are reacting in fear. They know that their candidate's presumption of victory is based on the most razor-thin advantages possible. In addition, he is uniquely vulnerable to his own blunders.

When you're ahead by about 3-10% in either the delegate count or the popular vote or both, and you're perceived as a secular kind of man-god, you have very, very little room for error. A lot of very fickle people came to the table for Obama based on some ephemeral emotional excitement and his claim that he isn't a politician. Every time he goes negative, no matter how slightly, he tarnishes that halo.

Clinton is in a comfortable position. The whispering campaign against her is deeply rooted, but limited to the wonk class. She can do nearly anything without long-term consequences because the press has told us we can't expect any better from her. Therefore, she can tweak Obama and the press to her heart's delight, and it won't attract as much attention. The pundits may rant and rave, but the people will indeed see it as Ken Starr, version 2.0.

Outrage has a way of biting itself in its own ass, and this primary season is turning out to be proof of that.

--p!

[bicentennial_baby]

42. Got math?

No? It isn't there. Sorry.

[Spider Jerusalem]

44. Possible, yes; probable, no

Probability is a decisive factor; Clinton needs, at present, 62% of the remaining 611 (not 691; check your facts). The electoral math is not in her favour; and, per the delegate count here, with the recently added California delegates , the delegate count stands at 1370 to 1218 (with the projected totals from Texas, with the caucus giving Obama four more delegates, those numbers shift to 1378-1222).

[CitizenLeft]

38. not that I think it's not possible, it's certainly a fear...

...but I'm not so sure those superdelegates WILL go for Clinton, no matter what she does.

If anyone read Jeffrey Toobin's book "A Vast Conspiracy" and Joe Conason's "The Hunting of the President," you may remember how Monicagate disappointed - no, pissed off - party leaders and congresspeople alike to the point where they had to rally among themselves to defend him. They put their heads together to come up with a winning strategy (and they did - Bill survived the Senate trial) to save the party, no thanks to Bill himself. They did it, they stuck their necks out for him, ... and THIS is the party's reward, to jeopardize the greatest chance the Democrats have had for decades to regain power and actually get their agenda passed into law - THIS is what they get for defending him? If you think that ranking Dems will embrace Hillary for this and reward her with the nomination... well... I beg to differ. The Clintons have deep connections, by definition of being Prez and 1st Lady... but popular among the party, they are NOT. They have always gone their own way, they have many times gone against the party, and they have never EVER played team ball.

Frankly, I don't believe there's any loyalty there amongst the party leaders and movers and shakers, and she will pay the price for this if there's no palpable obvious reason to GIVE her the nom. In fact... I'm willing to bet there are more than a few who will be happy to yank that rug right out from under her, and, in light of this McCain bullshit she's added to the mix lately, they'll feel she deserves it.

[RoadRage]

43. While i'd like to agree with you..

I have a bad feeling that quite a few of those people have love/hate relationships with the Clintons. They hate them for all of the reasons that you mention, but they LOVE them even more because the Clintons will put them back into positions of power in Washington.

Many of these people are the same types that Obama avoids like the plauge.. he does NOT like the power hungry game mongers that the Clintons surround themselves with. So, they have one large incentive to get Clinton into office.. and that is called Job Security.

An Obama win = more years working in their home state doing god knows what. A clinton win = more years in Washington with the corrupt movers & shakers that they want to be surrounded by.

[democrattotheend]

45. Sadly, I don't disagree. I am afraid that could happen for either of them at this point.

Which is why part of the Obama supporter in me wants to let her come out on top at the end of the convention if it looks like the nominee is going to come out so weakened they can't win in the fall. I'd rather have Obama get another chance in 4 years than have him get the nomination and lose the White House and never get another chance. If she takes this all the way to the convention with the intention of weakening him for the general so she gets another shot in 2012, I think he ought to call her bluff, offer to take the VP slot in exchange for a promise made in front of party leaders not to run again if she loses, let her be the one to take the fall in November, and be almost the automatic nominee next time around.

I want Obama in the White House more than anything, but if this process tears the party apart so much that we can't win in November, I'd rather let her be the one to go down.

[fujiyama]

49. I'm with you. With the exception of very few other Dems

Obama STILL is the future of this party. I'd rather have him run again in '12 than go up this time with a fragmented base.

Between Hillary and McCain at this point, I just don't really care who wins. I don't want to have to vote for her...and depending on how I feel by election day, I may be tempted to skip the pres. vote and vote all other spots...Her comments about McCain's experience are truly something I have not seen before; Disgusting.

[FlyingSquirrel]

50. Can't disagree. nt

[wisteria]

52. Not me.

I have this sinking feeling that the fix is in for Clinton and I don't like it one bit. And, if she thinks a Clinton/Obama ticket will appease me she is dead wrong. I want 0 more years of the Clinton's.