If FLA and MI have re-do's --- who do you think has the advantage in each state?

[RiverStone]

At first glance, Hillary may benefit from FLA's retired population. As far is MI, it seems Obama may benefit from the same combination of factors that won him WI.

Of course, the wild card is by the time anything happens in June - the math that is evident to many on DU may have finally reached John Q. Public. If folks felt Obama was going to win on points anyway - how might that effect turn out?

The perspective from local DUers on the ground in either state would be very appreciated!:hi:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. In a legitimate primary contest, Hillary would edge MI and whomp up in FL

Keep in mind that thse have to be closed contests.

Otherwise, people who voted in the live Republican contests could vote gain in a live Dem contest.

[Kittycat]

2. I saw Obama with the edge in MI, and HRC by 10-12 in FL.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. vs. McCain Hill and Barack are one point apart in MI (Obama 1 point better)

and that's the only MI polling we have. (No Clinton/Obama polling since the non-primary, at least not that I have seen) But that doesn't mean Obama would be stronger in a closed primary. That one point advantage is presumably due to pugs and independents.


If you've seen any recent Hill vs Barack polling, you're way ahead of me.

[cureautismnow]

3. Florida is a closed state. n/t

[Cant trust em]

5. Seems like FL would play up to Clinton

Miami is something like 62% cuban. She's been strong on the Latino vote. Older population. Many New York transplants.

on the other hand. Obama did really well in nearly every other southern state that is usually red. South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana. exception being Tennessee and Arkansas, the homes of Gore and Clinton, respectively.

Interesting. Very interesting.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Question: Has the UAW endorsed?

[thunder rising]

7. First ... who's footing the bill? Show me the MONEY!

[HooptieWagon]

8. OK

Michigan is talking caucus, which is a big break for Obama - Hillary may get good corporate support, but she struggles getting boots on the ground in the numbers Obama does. In a caucus, Obama 65 Clinton 35

Florida (actually Bill Nelson)is adamant about no caucus. State can't afford another primary, talking about a mail vote. Not been done here, can't say what to predict - have young people even seen snail mail? Assuming numbers break down like a primary, I see Obama doing well - there are no other candidates on the ballot to split the anti-Hillary vote, he has time to campaign, he has money to run ads - so the results will be much closer than before. But, there are a lot of stupid people and racists here - which seems to be 2 significant components of Hillary's base - so I see her winning about 52 Obama 48.

[verges]

9. HIllary-both

She helped get them their re-vote.

[BadgerLaw2010]

10. Hillary in both. Obama has opposed seating.

[boston bean]

11. obama confirmed his campaign did.

You folks are grasping at straws.

This was discussed and the question was asked of Hillary. She said she had no idea if someone in her campaign did that and if they did she would fire them on the spot.

[GoldieAZ49]

12. No redo until someone comes up with $20 million or more

who do you think is going to pay for this?

Damn sure better not be the taxpayers