We will probably know the nominee by 5 PM tomorrow

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

The Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls will tell us.

If Hillary bumps up tomorrow to the low 50s, she will probably go on to win the nomination, because Obama will fade fast from that point, sink to below 40% over the next week or so, and probably not recover.

If she does not show a decent bump, she will not get the nomination.

So just check tomorrow, and you'll know the score.

[thunder rising]

1. She has to win by like 65% not 50%

[Georgie_92]

9. The polls have been off, I don't trust them any longer.

[madaboutharry]

2. Why would anyone go along with those polls.

Gallup trends conservative. Besides, polls don't have a lot of credibility right now since they're wrong so much of the time.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Tracking polls are meaningful as indicators of changes in direction

I don't believe that 52% means 52% in an election, but it is still ten points higher than 42%.

(I agree that both firms skew Republican)

If the electorate is soft and seeking, she will get a bump from a couple of days of press as a "winner"

If people's opinions are strong, she won't.


Just my opinion, but that's how I game it out. She was dead a week ago and got a tiny glimmer of hope. She needs to capitalize on it right away. Her wins Tuesday are all about public perception, not gaining delegates. She has to change the perception dynamic, and if she doesn't get a good bump from Tuesday, she's probably sunk for good.

[DearAbby]

17. *

[book_worm]

3. that is such a simplistic argument any way you look at it.

Daily Tracking polls are notorious for bumps one way or another on a daily basis. Remember prior to Tuesday Obama had bumped up and now he's a few points behind. He will get another bump this week with his wins in MS and WY. Then it's a long six weeks until the next primary--PA and I can tell you those tracking polls will be up and down for both of them many times.

[goldcanyonaz]

4. That's only true if it goes my candidates way.

:rofl:

[whistle]

5. Oh come on OUIJA has already revealed that to you, right?

[ShaWee]

12. Are you telling me you DON'T get your news from an Ouiji board?

Let's be realistic here!

[whistle]

15. Well I used to, but lately I've been getting better predictions from chicken entrails

...and Sea Gull dropping patterns on hot asphalt

[ShaWee]

23. Well I hope you're boiling those droppings in black water and rattlesnake leather

[Colobo]

6. That's not true.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

16. Hi Katz. Yeah, it really is. But you can at least accept half of it...

If Clinton doesn't bounce tomorrow she's all but dead.

(Yes, poll samples can miss it... I mean if she doesn't bounce in the real world, which would be caught by polling at some point soon.)

For Obama it's more complicated, but in general terms, if you ever starts down in a meaningful way he'll keep going.

My theory is that the Obama bandwagon is hard to get back on if you jump off. I don't expect people to jump off, but if they do he faces a real task getting them back on.

That's the nature of love... when you lose it, it's gone.

I happen to think she will not get a big bounce, and she will be finished.

I don't doubt for a second that she's less than 25% to win.

[Unsane]

7. What a lame postulate.

A notoriously fickle national tracking poll, which changes by the week, is going to tell us the nomination winner now? You do realize that for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination, she will have to do so notwithstanding the fact that Obama will have more elected, pledged delegates, right? A better argument would be: because Hillary wins the overall popular vote, or because she wins more registered democrats. Not, because Rasmussen's erratic tracking poll said so the week of March 7.

[zarath]

13. LOL ... Well put. n/t

[Flabbergasted]

10. It will need to be more than one day. A sustained lead by Hillary maybe...

but one day? No.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

18. Put it this way... if she doesn't bounce, she's dead.

The Obama half of the prediction is less certain, but the Hillary half is pretty sound.

If she doesn't bounce from Ohio, she ain't gonna bounce.

[Flabbergasted]

20. That I'll agree with. She has spent A LOT of campaign capital the last two weeks....

As you say it is unsustainable. It will either take off or she's done. Can't be done again.

[DJ13]

11. Barack got a bump, loses a bit of it, then Hillary wins?

Bullcrap.

[backscatter712]

14. My magic 8-ball says...

Reply hazy, try again.

More seriously, Hillary still hasn't solved that math problem.

[Lucinda]

19. Nah....We won't know anything until PA unless something bizarre happens.

Everything can change on a dime.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

21. I've considered her dead since Virginia

Having been given a feeble new life she has to cash in right away.

And Obama would have failed to put her away one time too many.

But I suspect she won't cash in, and won't be able to capitalize on her last gasp.

[Lucinda]

22. I know you have. I've followed your posts.

I reaaaaaaly disagree. :)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

24. Keep the faith