Hillary has stolen Obama's momentum, will win 55% of remaining delegates

[FlyingSquirrel]

Sound far-fetched? IT IS!

Obama has won OVER 55% of delegates (not just popular vote, DELEGATES) in 21 individual states/territories.
Clinton has accomplished this same feat in 7 individual states/territories.

On average, Obama has taken 52.8% of the delegates to Clinton's 47.3%.

However, for the purposes of this analysis, we're going to assume that the momentum is now hers and she will take 55% of the remaining delegates in each of the 12 states/territories remaining, as well as the delegates not currently assigned in the states/territories that have already voted.

There are differing opinions regarding how many delegates each has, and how many are remaining. Taking the average of AP, CBS, CNN, MSNBC and NYT, we get the following numbers:

Obama 1328, Clinton 1185

CNN is closest to this average:

Obama 1321, Clinton 1186

So let's use CNN's numbers this time around.

There are 3,253 Pledged delegates. Subtracting 1321 and 1186 from this = 746. Subtracting Edwards' 12 PD's gives us 734 to work with.

55% of 734 remaining delegates = 404 for Clinton
45% of 734 remaining delegates = 330 for Obama

So, after Hillary takes 55% of all the remaining states/territories and any unassigned delegates, the totals would be:

Obama 1651, Clinton 1590

That's a 61-delegate lead for Obama, not counting MI/FL.

Including MI/FL as they stand now would STILL LEAVE OBAMA IN THE LEAD by 5 delegates.

Nobody expects Clinton to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Again, she has done that well in only about 1/3 as many states/territories as Obama has.

Nobody expects the DNC to include MI & FL the way they stand. They might include FL without a re-vote, but certainly not Michigan when Clinton was the only one on the ballot. A re-vote would likely reduce Hillary's percentages in both states since Obama has gained popularity and stature since the original votes - not to mention that Edwards is no longer in the race.

And very few people expect the superdelegates to overturn the popular delegate vote - that's just a teaser on the news shows. If the above fantasy took place, Hillary really took 55% of the remaining states and MI and FL were counted as-is, dropping Obama's lead to 5 delegates - then sure, they might actually be willing to overturn that small delegate lead.

But in reality, Obama will almost certainly win at least 47% of the remaining delegates (likely more).
That would give him about 1665 to 1575, a MINIMUM lead of 90 which would be insurmountable even if MI and FL were counted as-is.

I know, I know. Something horrible is gonna come out in the Rezko trial, people are gonna "come to their senses at last", Obama's gonna plummet to the earth and MI & FL plus the superdelegates will carry Clinton to the nomination.

OK. Keep that dream alive. It's worth it for us to lose in the GE due to this continuing bloody battle, just so long as it keeps the dream alive for a little while longer.

Right?

[rwheeler31]

1. Why?

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. Because!

:evilgrin:

[donheld]

11. Because why?

:D

[TheDoorbellRang]

3. I say we have a poll correlating which candidate we support

with grades in math back in middle school. No matter how many times we show that celestial choirs will sing before she can catch up in pledged delegates using SIMPLE MATH, the answer is always "But she's only 130 behind!"

So, good luck on this.

[FlyingSquirrel]

4. I keep hopin'.

:hi:

[barack the house]

5. I doubt it.

[ginnyinWI]

6. I see a campaign in disarray

I see a candidate flailing around desperately trying to figure an angle that will work. Doing inexplicable things like praising the Republican opponent. I see slogan after slogan and meme after meme crashing down dead. I see money problems, credibility issues. I see a big happy celebration and big plastered on smiles on TV covering up for a decidedly underwhelming electoral outcome. I see whining, excuses, petulant demands and pronouncements. I see them caught in hypocrisy and lies.

Even the most ardent HRC supporter has to be seeing some of these things too--if they will look directly at them.

People: forget about what she/they are saying: look at what they are doing.

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. I see something slightly different.

For the most part I see the same thing you do.

But I see something more: I see self-delusion.

Here are various projected pledged delegate estimates from various sources: (These include projections from non-binding contests)

O Campaign: Obama 1,386; Clinton 1,230
MSNBC: ..... Obama 1,366; Clinton 1,227
CBS: ......... Obama 1,362; Clinton 1,210
AP: ........... Obama 1,360; Clinton 1,220
NYT: ......... Obama 1,341; Clinton 1,205
CNN: ......... Obama 1,321; Clinton 1,186
C Campaign: Obama 1,201; Clinton 1,042

I see a new OP coming.

[BringBigDogBack]

9. If I could reccomend a post in this OP, this would be it.

[BringBigDogBack]

8. Ehl. Oh. Ehl.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

10. Momentum?

She already lost the Texas caucus. She'll lose Mississippi, maybe Wyoming. And 55% won't be enough.


OK, maybe she has momentum. But momentum can go in any direction, and her's is going down.

[superkia]

13. Why do people even say she has the momentum? Was he...

supposed to win the rest of the states or he loses? What did he win, 12, 13 states in a row? Lose a couple and his momentum is gone? I think some folks around here listen to the media way too much. I am curious how many states Clinton has won consecutively at any point in the primaries? It seems for Clinton, like bush, they miss a field goal and it just moves closer until she wins and for Obama he misses a couple field goals and his kicking career is over?

I don't want Clinton, Bush or McCain kicking for my team...actually I wouldn't want them as a towel boy or girl either. Even if they just cleaned the locker rooms, they would probably sell the teams equipment to make money.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

14. They're desperate.

[VolcanoJen]

12. Jonathan Alter has an excellent piece up about this.

Hillary's Math Problem - Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.

He's even more generous with the math than you are, just to prove his point.

Great post, FlyingSquirrel.

[FlyingSquirrel]

15. Thanks, I just for some reason don't think math prevails in Hillary's mind

It's more like, "I'm gonna win this and I have the lawyers to prove it!"