So, I wanna know... for real, How can Hillary win? Honestly.

[Colobo]

I want both Clinton and Obama supporters discussing how realistic her chances to win the nomination are at this point. In other words, I want to understand, to comprehend her rationale for staying in the race right now.

[jakem]

1. that is just it. she can not win honestly.

[islandmkl]

2. "So, I wanna know... for real, How can Hillary win? Honestly."

Honestly? Not in her plans, necessarily.

[ps1074]

16. .

:rofl:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

21. .

[1awake]

3. The rationale is

that she can do very well in the remaining states, thus moving on to the convention. Once there, She has a chance to win the nom through the SD votes, or through some kind of brokered agreement. It's fairly simple actually, though many will argue how this could effect the party.

[ButterflyBlood]

10. She needs around 70% of superdelegates up for grabs

Especially unlikely considering since Super Tuesday her gain in superdelegates has been negative one.

[ButterflyBlood]

12. A graph for Hillary

[ButterflyBlood]

4. Hillary can't do fairly simple math it appears

I'd hope our President be at least proficient in math.

[LeftCoast]

5. I think there is a way for her to win 'honestly' (ie within the rules)

The problem is, she almost certainly won't have the higher number of either pledged delegates or actual votes. The rules certainly allow for the SDs to swing the nomination to her side, but that would have terrible optics and it will never happen.

[scheming daemons]

6. There is only one way she can win now...

--- Backroom deal to overturn the pledged delegate count.



That is the "nuclear" option... it causes half of the Dem convention to storm out in protest.... and it loses the black vote edge the Dems have enjoyed for the past 50 years... perhaps for a generation.

[Yael]

11. And a few of us white women to boot...

[KittyWampus]

7. continuing her current James Baker gambit until the Convention. Damaging Obama as much as possible

putting out the rationale she won the popular vote and none of the states Obama won mean anything and using whatever pull she's got to get enough super delegates.

[Warren DeMontague]

8. I think the logic goes something like, "it was hers to begin with, Obama had no right to challenge

her in the first place, so really even if Obama is ahead she should be entitled to the nomination, no ifs ands or buts"

That's been problem #1 with her campaign from the get-go; this assumption that she is somehow automatically entitled to the nomination. I think that cuts to the core of why so many of her backers are so pissed off about this whole thing.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Taverner]

13. I don't think she can, but she needs to be VP on the ticket

Otherwise say hello President McCain

[ExFreeper4Obama]

14. She can't win without trying to overtrun the will of the people via superdelegates

That won't happen. Even if there is a re-vote in Michigan and Florida she won't win enough delegates. Its over for her. She won't get the nomination. Her goal now is to bloody Obama politically so that he will lose to McCain and she can run again in 2012 and say "I told you so."

[lapfog_1]

15. She has two hopes...

slim and none... ok, I'm here all week.

Ok, she has three...

One, she can win the rest of the contests by 58 to 42 (average) and somehow seat the FL and MI delegates... then appeal to the Supers to put her over the top ( won more big states, won more blue states, has the same or nearly the same pledged delegates, blah blah blah )

Two, she does whatever she does and stays about 150 pledged delegates short and doesn't get the FL or MI delegates... and somehow convinces the supers to overturn the will of the people as expressed in the pledged delegate counts.

Three, she can hope that something happens to Obama.

That's her only hope.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

18. All these math scenarios take it as metaphysically certain that Obama

is guaranteed 40%+ in remaining contests.

That's not how it works. Candidates sometimes collapse.

I am not predicting it, but it is easy to imagine un-extraordinary circumstances where Obama becomes so damaged a candidate that his support simply falls apart.

Imagine 70-30 delegate margins in PA and a FL re-vote and see where the math goes.

And imagine a Dem convention favoring a 0.5% delegate lead over the reality of a candidate that just lost PA and FL by 40 points.

These are hypotheticals, not predictions. But all the people saying "impossible" are really saying "difficult", whether they know it or not.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. It's simple Katz. Not likely, but easy to lay out...

As you know, I am not predicting it, and she isn't bouncing yesterday or today (re: my post you thought so wrongheaded)

But the hypothetical circumstance in which Clinton wins is quite straightforward.

Demonstrate to the great majority of Democrats that she is a stronger GE candidate than Obama while keeping the delegate margin close. (Actually, she doesn't have to "demonstrate" that... however the perception arose, it would work out th same way.)

Voters (particularly non-AA voters) going forward will vote for whoever they think is a winner. If public perceptions of Barack change (IF...) he is not guaranteed the 55-45, 60-40 type contests people are desribing as automatic. He could lose PA by 40 points.

(One year the Washington Redskins had clinched a wildcard playoff bearth. The only way the could lose was if Washinton lost their last game and Saint Louis won their last game by more than 45 points. Needless too say, Washington lost their last game and Saint Louis won their last game by 46 points.)

The party will find a way to leave the convention with the strongest electoral candidate at the top of the ticket.

That's her path to the nomination... a set of circumstances that make it conventional wisdom that Obama is a losing candidate.

That doesn't mean it will happen. But if Summer rolls around and "everyone knows" that Obama is a sure loser, and Obama doesn't have 2024 delegates in hand, that's the ball game.

I appreciate the concentration on "the math" but arguments about the math are predicated on the idea that SDs in August will rubber-stamp votes cast in February even if the believe they are installing John McCain as president by doing so.

They won't. In that circumstance they will force a Clinton/Obama ticket.

Again, you asked how she could win, not what will happen. My remarks are analytic, not predictive.

[Colobo]

19. Thanks for the great analysis, Kurt.

It's always a pleasure to read your posts.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

20. It is always a pleasure to read yours also

I feel bad that the hate level is so high around here.

I don't have any particular animus toward Obama. I do have off-the-charts animus toward the collective mind-set of the Obama community on DU. So whenever I find myself starting to hate Obama (only because of his supporters) I take a break, and my opinion of Obama himself rejuvenates.

I cannot imagine how pissed off you must be by Hillary these days, but I'm sure you recognize that campaigning is a technology with a set of tools to achieve certain goals. And what makes Hillary a good candidate is that she is not hung up on how people perceive her, unlike Gore and Kerry, and probably Barack.

She was never going to be the prom-queeen... she's always known that.

She will try to win at almost any cost. That is seen as a horrible thing here... people say that as it were a flaw. But in a candidate, as with a boxer, it's an asset. I know some people honestly believe she wants McCain to win, because people believe a lot of crazy things, but she will give McCain the same treatment we are seeing her dish out to Obama right now.

It's disgusting, but candidates are hired guns, and she's a mean, mean article. (I'm sure the impartial observer in you has a grudging admiration for her ability to control the narrative, simply by being willing to do what she needs to do.)

You have posted about who different candidates are in boxing terms. I am starting to see Hillary as Bernard Hopkins. He's never fun to watch and he's the dirtiest fighter around, but people end up forgiving it because he wins, usually against younger, quicker opponents. Watching him fight raises all sorts of questions... I hate his tactics, but the referees never do the right thing by disqualifying him in the first three rounds. So, since he doesn't set the rules, would it be irresponsible for him to fight clean?

Hate the game, not the player.

[AZBlue]

22. She can't. Honestly.

[backscatter712]

23. Her only chance is the smoke-filled room.

Even Michigan and Florida can't save her now.

She'll try wheeling and dealing with the superdelegates to steal the nomination.

Though I doubt the superdelegates will buy it - they know if they let Hillary steal it, they'll get tarred and feathered.

[BigDaddy44]

24. She can absolutely win

She can win by persuading enough superdelegates to go her way, even though she'll obviously lose the elected delegate count and the popular vote. She can do it by convincing them that Obama is not experienced enough and unelectable.

This scenario is possible, and if it comes true will tear the Democratic party in half. African Americans have waited decades for a good candidate to arise. Then, when he wins the delegates voted by the people....the fat cats in the party take it away from him. The African Americans and young people who rallied for Obama will realize it was a rigged game from the start, and that for all the talk about making "every vote count" (aka 2000 election), the Democrats are no better than the republicans, and rig the rules to thwart the rule of the people.

So sure, she can win. Its very possible. It would also be devastating.

[Mags]

25. How can BO win?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

26. Well there's your problem.

She can't win honestly.

[dailykoff]

27. By tearing down Obama, period.

But if she thinks she can turn him into a scary black "gangraper" anywhere but Ohio she's nuts.