Is Clinton really winning "Core Democrats"?

[democrattotheend]

http://purplestatepundit.com/blog/election08/is-clinton-really-winning-core-democrats/

Over the past month or two, it has become conventional wisdom that Clinton is stronger among “core Democrats”, while Obama does better among independents. Exit polls have shown in most states that Obama is stronger among self-identified independents than self-identified Democrats, but a look at the 2004 exit polls suggests that demographically, our assumptions about how we define “core Democrats” may be outdated.

Much has been made of Obama’s struggle to win seniors, the white working class, Catholics, and white women, groups the media has been calling “core Democratic voters.” According to the exit polls from 2004, however, all of those groups voted for Bush.

According to the 2004 exit polls, it is Obama, not Clinton, who is winning among some of Kerry’s best demographic groups. They don’t ask about 2004 presidential polls in the exit polls, so it is impossible to quantify this, but the demographics suggest that Obama might actually be doing better among people who voted for Kerry in 2004.

[Bread and Circus]

1. That's what I've been thinking lately too. There's nothing more core than AA's to the Dem Party.

[jakem]

31. true, but alcoholics are not reliable...

[democrattotheend]

32. huh?

[jakem]

33. AA core to the party... alcoholics anonymous...

never mind... :shrug:

[democrattotheend]

34. Ah, gotcha ;)

[LSparkle]

2. IMHO, the split is generational

She's getting older "core Democrats" (like 55+); he's getting the younger ones. I don't
think I've ever seen such a marked division based upon voter age (including psychological;
I'm 49 but I "think young" and have found I have more in common with the younger voters I
meet than I do even with people my own age).

[havocmom]

3. She isn't a hit with ANY of the people I know about my age

and I am way older than what is thought of as the Obama bracket ;)

[goclark]

12. I am an African American Senior and a woman

How do they count me?

[Gore1FL]

15. It depends

do you live in a caucus state, or a smaller state? If so, not at all.

[goclark]

21. I live in

Los Angeles

[democrattotheend]

4. I think that's definitely part of it

And I have heard a lot of complaining from Clinton supporters about Obama's "latte sipping spoiled college kids." They seem to forget that people under 30 were the only age group Kerry carried in 2004.

[lligrd]

5. One Thing We Do Know For Sure

She is getting Rush's Ditto Heads.

[MH1]

6. She's not getting this core Democrat. Ever.

She might get me to give up on the Democratic Party though.

[Avalux]

7. No. I'm a core Democrat and so are a lot of people I know. No.

Obama's uniqueness lies in his ability to draw in people from all political perspectives, including core Democrats.

[skipos]

8. She blames "party activists" for her many primary and caucus losses

when she isn't busy blaming blacks, the youth, or independents.

[democrattotheend]

20. Don't forget people in small states

They are not significant either.

[Texas Hill Country]

9. Kerry didnt fare so well...

[democrattotheend]

11. That's not my point

My point is that those who are complaining that Obama is not winning "real Democrats" because he is doing better among independents and upper-income voters ought to recognize that a lot of those people are the ones who actually voted Democratic in 2004.

[NashVegas]

22. Do You Remember the 2004 Club For Growth Ad?

That talked about the "Volvo driving, latte sipping" crowd. Ever notice the people pictured in it were wearing Land's End-type jackets? ie, the very people to most likely be Volvo-driving Dems?

They're real Dems voters, but they are the high-end earners, the ones who Hillary rightly says don't need government so much. They've figured out how to work the system to their benefit.

As Ohio showed, Hillary's getting the votes of the Gephart Dems - the ones who can't afford those Land's End coats and have to make due with Made in China wear at the same time it's killing their jobs.

[democrattotheend]

23. I don't disagree with you

I just take exception to those who say that the 'latte liberals' are not 'real Democrats' or shouldn't have a say in the primary process. 23% of Kerry's votes in 2004 came from independents, and he would not have won Pennsylvania without the upper-income voters in the Philly suburbs. The media narrative and the spin coming from some Clinton supporters has suggested that the people you call "Gephardt Democrats" (good name, btw) are somehow more authentically Democratic than the "latte liberals", even though a majority of white working class voters voted for Bush in 2004.

[barack the house]

10. This is her strategy to change perception, the base of te Demparty of recent years is minorities...

...so not sure of the veracity of her statements.

[jackson_dem]

13. Yes. She has over a million more Democratic votes

[democrattotheend]

14. Depends how you define Democrat

If you are going by the exit polls, maybe. But as I point out, not everyone who says they are a Democrat has voted that way in recent years, and not everyone who says they are an independent or Republican hasn't.

Besides, they have not done exit polls for most of the caucus states, so it's impossible to compute how many "Democratic" votes she has gotten.

[Growler]

17. I hate to break it to anyone...

But the only way a Dem is going to win the GE is by picking up these independents and republicans.... Duh.

[democrattotheend]

19. Exactly!

Self-identified Democrats only make up at most 40% of the electorate. 23% of Kerry's votes came from independents.

[pkz]

16. yes if "core" Democrats means

women over 70 like my Mom and her crowd.

If I hear one more time that "women deserve this" grrrrrr.

I am turning 50 next week, and I can honestly say that O is not a man to me, he is not mixed race.
Hillary is not a woman. They are freakin' candidates for the highest office in the land. My Mom taught me to not judge someone on sex or color and dang! now, she is.

They are equals in every way to me, except in message and baggage.

[New Dawn]

18. Only if "core democrats" = the right-wing of the party!

Especially the types who used to be "moderate Republicans" before the GOP became a hardcore fundamentalist party.

[rodeodance]

24. she is the populist candidate. get used it.

[last_texas_dem]

25. In what way are Clinton's policy proposals more "populist" than Obama's?

I'm genuinely curious.

[democrattotheend]

26. None that I know of

She is a founding member of the DLC, which was founded in part with the goal of making the Democratic Party more pro-business and less "beholden" to organized labor.

[Renew Deal]

28. John Edwards disagrees.

He said she's a "corporate democrat" and part of the "status quo."

[Renew Deal]

27. Interesting point

I'd be curious to look this up.

[democrattotheend]

29. I made some tables on my blog to illustrate

http://purplestatepundit.com/blog/election08/is-clinton-really-winning-core-democrats/

I couldn't post them here because of formatting issues.

I wish the exit polls would ask people who they voted for in 2004...that would be an interesting stat to look at.

In the interest of shameless self-promotion, I'm trying to get my blog off the ground, so if anyone else has blogs, feel free to link to it. I am happy to reciprocate.

[Medusa]

30. More lies that the MSM has lapped up straight from the Clinton campaign

and then she has the nerve to bitch about the "unfair" press coverage when she's setting the terms of the media coverage? I call bullshit on her and the media on this "fairy tale'.