Iowa Delegates: Think You Know Where They Go? Think Again.

[Crooked Moon]

On caucus night it was estimated that Obama’s 38% of the caucus vote would net him 16 delegates, Clinton’s 29% would net her 15, and Edwards would receive 14 from his 30% caucus support. And these numbers are already included in the counts that currently show Clinton and Obama separated by fewer than 100 delegates.

But here’s the rub. Iowa Democrats will not actually elect any national delegates until our Congressional District Conventions on April 26. At that time 29 of the delegates will be elected, with the remaining 16 elected at the State Convention in June. And those delegates will be elected in proportion to the support each candidate receives at those conventions. How will we know how much support they have? That’s where the county conventions come in.

County Convention Delegates elected at the caucus were elected in support of a candidate (or uncommitted). At the county convention, just like at the caucuses, there will be a “re-alignment” period, where delegates can change their allegiance. Once that process is done, we will count the supporters, and any candidate with less than 15% support at the county convention will be declared non-viable, with those delegates needing to move to a different candidate. When the alignment is over, the viable candidate groups will elect their share of district and state convention delegates.

So who cares? This seems like it is just another part of Iowa’s arcane process, and the battle has moved well beyond us. Normally that would be true, but across Iowa some 30% of all county convention delegates are John Edwards supporters (more than Clinton has by a handful), and those folks may have to make a choice. The choice they make may determine whether Clinton or Obama comes out of Iowa with the bulk of our national delegates – either one could conceivably pick up all 14 of Edwards’ potential delegates. Normally that wouldn’t matter much, but this time around every delegate may make a difference.

http://blogs.britannica.com/blog/main/2008/03/why-iowa-might-still-matter-especially-to-obama/

[4dsc]

1. As an Edwards delegate

I too am wondering what's going to happen at the county caucus.. I plan to represent Edwards and then will go uncommitted.. If that doesn't work I'll support Obama..

[grantcart]

2. and another paragraph goes on to state the most telling part

Interestingly, at least locally, only the Obama campaign has been making efforts to woo Edwards delegates. The Clinton campaign seems to be completely missing in action. If this is the case throughout Iowa, don’t be surprised if in April Obama is able to pad his delegate count by strategically continuing to campaign for the hearts and minds of county, district, and state convention delegates.



welcome to DU

[blm]

3. More proof the Clintons expected to be the nominee by Super Tuesday. They don't even KNOW

Dem party state rules, and all the while are trying to convince voters they are the most prepared team.

They are all talk and no basic walk.

[grantcart]

8. They don't even have a full slate of delegates in PA

[BluWtrLynn]

4. Washington the same.

The situation is the same in Washington state. At the precinct caucuses in February voters elected delegates to the next level based on a ratio of who signed-in for which candidate. The elected delegates are under only a moral obligation to support the candidate desired by the folks that sent them onward. There are two more levels that work the same way before national delegates are elected at the state convention. We knew what we could learn about the delegates in speeches of about 60 seconds before we voted.

[IowaGuy]

5. I'm an Obama precinct captain and delegate....

my information and observations could best be described as anecdotal rather than known hard facts, however, what I saw and have seen is most of the Edwards supporters have Obama as their second or third choice, anyway. The great majority had Obama as their second and liked Biden, Richardson, etc...You couldn't even field a softball team in most neighborhoods from the people that had Hillary as their second or third choice.

Also most of her supporters were older, retired people. Going to a caucus for a couple of hours and having coffee and cookies with the neighbors is cool with them, however, not too many are really chomping at the bit to be delegates to a county convention where you often have to be there 10-12 hours straight in a noisy crowded auditorium with a lot of people you don't know.

The Hillary people so far in Iowa have been spectacularly blase' and uninvolved. The only thing I'm really worried about is that much of the establishment party pooh-bahs are HRC supporters and may try and stack the conventions with "alternate delegates" that are HRC supporters. "Alternate delegates" can be seated at the convention in place of a regular designated delegate if they do not show up. There is a potential problem of somebody stealing' or affecting the outcome of the convention through that process; although highly unlikely.

The Obama campaign does seem to be on top of that and has been trying to make sure Edwards delegates do show up regardless, since they would most likely be the ones most dispirited and lack motivation to attend. We'' see how it goes on March 15th - county conventions then.

[blm]

10. Thanks for sharing your insight.

This is the type of information that really brings many of us here to share OUR Democratic party.

[Cha]

6. Rec'd ...thanks, Crooked

Moon.

[Laelth]

7. Important information, thanks.

k&r

And welcome to DU!

:patriot:

-Laelth

[Debi]

9. David Redlawsk is awesome! K & R