Can ANYTHING stop this impending catastrophe for our party in Denver?

[Alhena]

I really hope I'm wrong, but I'm starting to think that Hillary's big win in Ohio and likely in Pennsylvania has made it inevitable that we're heading towards a collision in Denver. If Newseek is correct, right now it looks like Florida will have a mail-in revote which Hillary will likely win by 10% or so. Florida re-doing their primary will make it inevitable that Michigan does so as well, and I would guess that Obama would win that one slightly given the polls showing the race tied there now even though Hillary is at the height of her momentum.

So that means we're going to have a completely exhausting spring full of political trench warfare in one state after another. Democrats beating the crap out of democrats and democrats raising limited funds to beat Democrats. And in my view, the most likely result of that warfare will be Obama will a lead of around 75 pledged delegates and Hillary with a very slight lead in the popular vote after it's all over. Puerto Rico might well put her over the top in the popular vote which will give rise to arguments about whether a non-state "counts" in this regard. So neither candidate will have a clear claim to the nomination but each candidate will have a legitimate argument for it.

And that means that one half of the party is going to leave Denver feeling robbed and betrayed, possibly after rioting in the streets by the losing candidate's supporters. Many of those supporters will turn to John McCain- he could not have scripted a better situation than the one which faces the democrats now.

Surely I'm not the only one who has this dark visision. I really hope it's off base, but I fear it's not. The only scenario I see to avoid this would be if superdelegates start turning to Obama in large numbers and that takes on a momentum of its own. If that's going to happen, you'll see it start happening shortly after his expected win in Mississippi. I think this mass superdelegate shift is unlikely, but you would think that the Democratic party's survival instinct would kick in at some point and they'd realize that we need a nominee soon. Heck, even if they decided on Hillary I'd rather it be now than in August after I've invested a few more months' worth of emotions in this race. I am honestly exhausted from following all this already and we're just getting started.

[backscatter712]

1. Tomorrow's races will help.

She's not looking good in Wyoming or Mississippi.

If she gets clobbered badly enough, maybe it'll start to take the wind out of her sails and make everyone question her viability.

All she's got now is spin, and eventually reality will return and set in. She's got a math problem, and that math problem has no viable solution - she cannot get enough delegates to win.

Losing Wyoming and Mississippi tomorrow will make the math problem even worse.

And her vicious attacks may have given her some short-term gains, but she did not make any friends, and it won't take long for her tactics to start biting her in the ass.

Oh, and contrary to popular belief, she lost Texas. I thought she needed decisive victories in Ohio AND Texas. Just Ohio isn't enough. Like I said, she's got a math problem.

[BeatleBoot]

3. But, but, but, Rush Limbaugh said to vote for her....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yt_jnhsyqg0


http://republicansforobama.org/?q=node/359


E-mail to send to Texas Republicans


Attention All Texas Republicans and Independents!!

On March 4th, Texas Republicans and Independents will have an opportunity to end Hillary Clinton's (and Bill's) presidential ambitions once and for all!

Since Texas has on open primary, Republicans and Independents should sign in at their polling place and request a Democratic ballot. They should then vote for Barack Obama. Even James Carville admits that if Hillary loses Texas, "she's done!" Republicans can help make this a reality!!! Just think, no more Clintons in the White House!

Voting Democratic this one time will have NO effect on your ability to vote in the next Republican primary or obviously on your vote in November. Since John McCain has the Republican nomination locked up, voting for McCain or Huckabee at this point will have no effect on the outcome on the Republican side.

After you vote during early voting or on March 4th, you ARE NOT done! Report back to your regular polling place at 7PM on March 4th to sign the Barack Obama list for caucus delegates. In a little known Texas voting quirk, 67 delegates to the Democratic convention will be seated because of these caucuses. This is a full one-third of the total number of Texas delegates. For Hillary to lose, she has to lose the primary votes AND the caucus votes.

I urge you to vote against Hillary Clinton by voting for Barack Obama. Please forward this e-mail to all your Texas Republican and Independent friends so that we can help ensure the Clinton's defeat on March 4th!!!

[IndianaGreen]

2. McClinton is committed to a train wreck in Denver

Who can stop that Monster?

[Beregond2]

4. Catastrophe?

I think you are being alarmist. It is not as if this were the only close contest in primary history, and the party has survived. The only thing that could lead to real trouble is if the SDs vote against the will of the people, and they won't. Yes, it would be much nicer to have this all wrapped-up, but it isn't, and that's that. We'll live.

[Clovis Sangrail]

5. The supers turning to Obama in droves will only make the wreck

happen faster.
Clinton supporters will (rightly so) see this as extremely undemocratic.

I think the only way out of this is for one of the candidates to drop.
I really hope I'm wrong, but I don't see that happening for quite a while.