To all the Obama Folks trying to cast despair on Hilly Supporters:

[jlake]

He is not "inevitable" I know y'all are sad his coronation was cancelled on Tuesday....
But Obama does NOT have a mathematical lock on the nomination.
Quit saying that! That would *only* be true if he had 2025 delegates - which he does not.
Hillary is in this 50/50 - and I think she's going to win.
If you truly think Obama has it sewn up, please use all of your posts to attack McCain and leave "irrelevant" Hillary alone.

[wileedog]

1. La la la la la la I can't hear the truth la la la la la la la

[MadBadger]

2. We know, you think shell win in MS, win by 40 in NC, etc, etc.

[jlake]

3. So you admit he doesn't have a lock on the nom?

There is a path to the nomination for Hillary.

[MadBadger]

8. Her path to the nomination is through superdelegates

She wont do the above things. She will lose MS and not win NC by 40 points. Obama does appear to have the pledged delegate lead wrapped up as of now though.

[MonkeyFunk]

25. His path to the nomination

is through superdelegates, too.

[MadBadger]

32. Yes, but at this stage of the game, he doesnt need as many. Plus...

I think he will have the pledged delegate argument which will work well with the supers.

[Tellurian]

119. The Supers can change their minds 2 min before they announce at the Convention..

So, Obama's delegate count is not securely locked up.

[wileedog]

33. Of course

But he will walk into the convention in all probability with a commanding lead in PDs.

The Superdelegates will be left with a choice - ignore that lead and nominate Hillary, and ignite the mother of all shitstorms, or consent to the will of the pledged delegates and honor the process.

Which way do you think they will go?

More importantly, Hillary can understand now that her nomination is a complete and total longshot at best, and if it happens it will tear apart the party. She can shut it down now and greatly enhance the Dems chances in November as opposed to her current strategy of propping up McCain over Obama.

No, I don't think she will do that either.

[MonkeyFunk]

35. If Clinton has the greater popular vote

that's a compelling argument to make for voting for her.

If she has the most popular vote, and they vote for Obama, people will be just as upset as your scenario.

[wileedog]

47. I don't disagree

But we are not a popular vote system. They would be upset for the wrong reasons.

And she is no lock by any means to win that anyway, she is very far behind.

All the more reason for Hillary to shut this boondoggle down now before it gets truly damaging.

[paperbag_ princess]

112. yeah- no one was upset that Bush had more electoral college votes than Gore nt

[Gore1FL]

89. what about caucuses?

How many apples does it take to make an orange?

If she argues the popular vote with the Super Delegates from the Caucus states, they will laugh in her face, as will many from the primary states, for that matter.

The most compelling argument a 2nd place candidate with a 100-175 delegate gap from the leading candidate can make is "I have proof he is a bank robber."

Short of that, she'll be lucky to get 50% of them.

[totodeinhere]

113. Do to a mix of caucuses and primaries

it will be impossible to accurately determine who had the most popular votes, so we can't go by that.

[ldf]

116. so what you are saying is that

if hillary wins the nomination it is YOUR intention to try your damnedest to tear the democratic party apart.

right?

[thunder rising]

36. And the SuperDelegates will vote for COATTAILS...it's just self preservation. :-)

And that would not be Hillary.

[MonkeyFunk]

45. It's a little premature to

pretend to know such things.

[thunder rising]

80. They are not voting to get thrown out of office!! Hillary nom will make 2fers happen all over the

country: take out both Hillary and a down-ticket candidate.

[Gore1FL]

91. Come up with a scenario where Hillary has the pledged delegate lead.

here is a calculator to hep you out:

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

[MonkeyFunk]

111. That's got nothing at all to do

with the point I was responding to. Try to keep up.

[Gore1FL]

118. sorry

I must have responded to the wrong post. Try to keep down.

[wileedog]

18. Absolutely she has a path to the nomination.

I also have a path to the nomination. Unfortunately hers is only slightly more likely than mine.

[DearAbby]

34. It's all over but the crying. n/t

[jlake]

44. Someone get Obama a hanky.

[rodeodance]

74. nah---toss em a pillow

[rodeodance]

108. pillows to go for you.

[aquart]

9. Well, why are you so scared of her then?

Come off it, you're scared shitless.

But hey, so am I. The idea that people who behave as Obama supporters behave might once again be in charge of this nation, with their hysteria-based need to demonize ANY difference of opinion? That would be changing George for George.

[Yael]

29. Personally, I am afraid that her shitstorm machine

will cost the party the election in November.

[thunder rising]

39. Scorched earth .. man, she has no depth to her hunger for power.

[rodeodance]

85. ha--your anxiety is showing---more sillyness from the BOfans now that Hillary has the MOJO;-)

[Gore1FL]

93. MOJO

Mathematically Obsolete Just Obnoxious?

[rodeodance]

95. too bad your math book is in need of revision so ofen

[Gore1FL]

97. Yeah. Obama kees getting more deleagtes causing me to recalculate.

Would you like to try?

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

[rodeodance]

98. too bad it will the supers who decide. lots of wasted fuzzy math day after day

[Gore1FL]

99. Explain ther motivations for overturning 6 months worht of contests

and please cite historical examples or any other precedent you see fit.

Thanks in advance!.

[rodeodance]

100. They will have to go with the popular vote. simple as that.

[Gore1FL]

101. And how many votes = 1 caucus goer?

And what is the historic precedent for the popular vote over delegate totals in Democratic Party nominee selections?

[rodeodance]

103. you are boring me.

[Gore1FL]

104. More like confounding you

You cannot answer questions concerning the details of your beliefs.

If you cannot say what you mean, how can you mean what you say?

[MadBadger]

31. I'm scared of her, not of her chances of winning.

[jlake]

92. Oh goodness..... she's such a scary woman!

:scared: :scared: :scared: :scared:
Universal healthcare. Environmental standards & energy independence.
She frightens me! Oh, that's right - I'm not shilling for big healthcare and oil so I like her......

[wileedog]

51. I'm scared shitless

She is going to slash and burn her way to Denver and leave the whole party in shambles, and let a complete numbnut like McCain walk into the White House over the rubble.

[Laelth]

55. I admit it. I am scared shit-less.

I am scared that Hillary is willing to destroy the Democratic Party to validate the Big Dog's legacy and establish her own, independent legacy.

I am also scared that Hillary has become a tool of the very machine she, at one time, pretended to fight.

But I am more than scared. I am sad. This does not need to go on, but it seems it will. :(

-Laelth

[jlake]

62. Oh goodness. Grab some more tin foil.

[Laelth]

88. I hope you're right.

I wish you were polite.

-Laelth

[Middle finga]

4. Kool -Aid drinker

[aquart]

15. This is like dealing with five-year-olds.

Yeah. Obama people behave like Jonestown people. Cultists worshipping a supreme leader. Which is why we use the Koolaid metaphor. Tossing it back with no meaning or merit? Yeah, baby games. Used to exhaust adults so they'll give you your way.

Not bloody likely, babycakes.

[jlake]

24. .......

:thumbsup: :yourock:

[Middle finga]

43. Loyal follower... is that better?

[RBInMaine]

5. Gee, I thought Hillary was supposed to be the "inevitable" one??

[elixir]

They like to perpetuate the noise on this board.

[Little Star]

6. Yes she will! Yes she should! No glass jaw for our gal!

[RazBerryBeret]

7. I think there's only been

ONE candidate in this race labeled "inevitable" and it's not Obama...

[aquart]

19. The messiah isn't inevitable?

Oh, drat. There goes salvation.

[ProSense]

10. She's not in it 50/50, she can't win. n/t

[jlake]

11. There's one of those despair mongers...... Yes she can & Yes we will!

[VotesForWomen]

106. well, she winning most of the states that matter. and yeah, Utah "doesn't count," as do a lot of ot

other states O won. i live in SD, and the truth is, SD doesn't count either; we haven't gone blue in a million years, and we won't be going blue in 2008, so why should the democratic party care which candidate we prefer?

[John Q. Citizen]

12. I cast despair on thee, oh math challenged dreamer. For Queen Hillary, though she speak

vile and outrageous lies upon Sir Obama, will not prevail.

"You take the low road
and I'll take the high road
and I'll get to Denver before ye.'

[VotesForWomen]

107. do the math: O does not and will not have the required delegates. nt

[John Q. Citizen]

114. He will have the required delegates to come out ahead of Hill, and then the supers will follow. And

that will be that.

[parasim]

13. I do believe in spooks. I do believe in spooks.

I do, I do, I do, I do, I do beileve in spooks.

[stillrockin]

14. That's all ya got?

[arrested_president]

16. Who Will Tell Hillary? By Robert Novak

Even the pond-scum could predict this:


By Robert D. Novak
Monday, February 25, 2008; Page A15

Even before Sen. Barack Obama won his ninth straight contest against Sen. Hillary Clinton, in Wisconsin last Tuesday, wise old heads in the Democratic Party were asking this question: Who will tell her that it's over, that she cannot win the presidential nomination and that the sooner she leaves the race, the more it will improve the party's chances of defeating Sen. John McCain in November?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/24/AR2008022401666.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

"Who will bell the cat?"

[stop the bleeding]

17. Grape Drink!

For when the kool-aid just won't do it anymore.:freak:

[Alhena]

20. Intrade says Obama 73%, Hillary 27%. Sounds about right to me

She has a decent chance, but Obama has a better one.

[annie1]

37. hey, last week she was at 18%, i'll take the 27!

[jlake]

40. Yep, and before that she was down to around 10. Intrade is not very reliable anyway.

[SoxFan]

21. Get a girlfriend

Join a basketball league.

Take up needlepoint.

Do something to get a grip on things, kiddo.

[Mooney]

22. Sniff sniff...

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

23. Hillary has two paths to the nomination

1) Win an average of 62-63% of the delegates in every remaining state (which you have to admit is very unlikely)
2) Win enough superdelegates to put her over the top (which is also unlikely if she doesn't win the pledged delegates)

Even if the Florida & Michigan delegates are seated, she still has to win more than 55% of the remaining pledged delegates. So while it's not inevitable that Obama will win the nomination, it's extremely unlikely that Hillary will.

[ProSense]

27. There is another path, which is why Hillary is still in it:

cheating, attempt to peel off Obama's pledged delegates and then threaten the superdelegates.

[jackson_dem]

69. If she wins the popular vote that will cancel out the Obama pledged delegate argument

In fact it may hold greater sway since what better way of assessing the will of the people than tallying their votes?

[Upton]

26. If it was 50/50 they would be tied in delegates

last I checked, even with the superdelegates included Obama was up by 119.

[backscatter712]

28. got math? nt

[seabeyond]

30. attack McCain and leave "irrelevant" Hillary alone... i would but i never never

turn my back on dishonesty. not in me. i always call it even if it is not in my best interest. otherwise i do leave her alone

[JVS]

38. Is this by you?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxtN0u23Tdc

[jlake]

41. Wow! I hadn't seen that yet!

Thank you! It was WONDERFUL!

:yourock: :yourock: :yourock:

[ProSense]

42. Yikes! n/t

[jlake]

46. Even you should appreciate that! I don't know why you Obama supporters

have such bad taste!

[David Zephyr]

48. You might want to sign up for some remedial math courses.

The ability to count is a great reality check.

[jlake]

49. Yeah, 2025 is a pretty easy number too...... see you in class.

[Jamastiene]

50. AMEN! n/t

[JackORoses]

52. It's not 50/50 It's 99/1

Hillary cannot prevail.

The Superdelegates will not overrule the PLedged Delegates, and she cannot catch up.

[jlake]

54. There's the despair monster!

Even Intrade has Hilly up around 27%.

[PseudoIntellect]

58. So you admit it's not 50/50.

It's DEFINITELY not that, rofl. Whoever goes into the convention with the greater number of pledged delegates has a much better chance of winning, especially if its by 150. (150 CANNOT be called a virtual tie, since it's harder to pull away in the Demo primaries due to proportional allocation)

[jlake]

59. I think it's at LEAST 50/50 in Hilly's favor.

[JackORoses]

65. are you betting money?

If you want to make a friendly wager,
I'll bet you $100 donation to DU on the Primary Nominee.

I, of course, take Obama.

Care to put your money where your mouth is?

[jlake]

66. I am using my money to support Hillary - and I did buy a few contracts

for her when she was down to $11.00 --- lookin' good!

[JackORoses]

77. come on, let's make a wager for a DU donation

Have you no faith in your candidate, or do you just not care to support DU?

[jackson_dem]

70. The sd's are also unlikely to overrule the popular vote

If it comes down to choosing between the popular vote winner and the PD winner I would bet most sd's will go with the former.

[JackORoses]

75. you know the only reason Popular vote is calculated is to award delegates

And the Popular vote doesn't represent Caucus states evenly. Do you think that their share in determining the nominee should be taken away?

[Justice Is Comin]

73. You wish.

The supers aren't pledged to anybody. They can change at will and I assure you they will if the all the large population states are won by her. There is no cogent argument against it. The general election is not a caucus.

And when Florida and Michigan do it for real, you better close your eyes. You're not going to like the results.

I'm already putting the odds that obama implodes at 65-35. Ohio set the stage.

[CyberPieHole]

53. Kick and rec for Hillary Clinton...

and for the CULT of Obama.:evilgrin:

[0007]

56. Lopeing your mule again I see.

[Quixote1818]

57. Fine, get your hopes up for nothing.

:rofl: Good luck with that.

[zulchzulu]

60. I bet Hillary is a really, really good Xerox machine operator!

[Dinger]

61. No Shit, K & R

Wow, it's bad here.

[FlyingSquirrel]

63. Actually it's 53/47

And she'll need to win all the remaining delegates 56/44 to catch up.

So ya, he doesn't have a lock on it.

Just a sleeper hold.

[LisaL]

64. And it doesn't matter, cause he won't get enough delegates

for the nomination.

[FlyingSquirrel]

67. Helloooooooooooooooo.... Why is this always brought up like it's a big thing?

If there were no superdelegates, then he would have enough for the nomination. In fact, there would be no way to stop him. The superdelegates are the only thing standing in his way. He would have pretty much a lock on 50%+1 of the delegates.

So why do Clinton supporters seem to think he should somehow be able to get 2,025 delegates WITHOUT ANY HELP from superdelegates?

That makes absolutely no sense.

Obama's magic number is 47% - if he can gain that many of the remaining delegates, he is "Michigan-proof" and "Florida-proof". He will be in the lead in pledged delegates no matter what happens with those two states. And since he has been getting 53% of the delegates, that shouldn't be too hard.

Oh, and if he gets 47% of the remaining delegates, his total will be 1879 including the 203 superdelegates that have already committed to him.

That leaves 147 more of the 350 uncommitted superdelegates to give him the nomination - just 42% of them would be necessary.

Now tell me again why this is not a virtual lock on the nomination.

[Windex]

82. What about Edwards delegates?

Will he give them to Obama?

[jlake]

90. He can release them.... he can't force them to vote for either Obama or Hilly.

[anonymous171]

68. Maybe if Clinton actually attack McCain, I would attack him too.

But she's to concerned with attacking a fellow democrat. Fine. We can play her game a lot better than she can and look a lot better while doing it.

[jlake]

72. Actually, that's how Obama caught up with her.... she was ONLY attacking

Republicans for the longest time.... focusing on the GE......

[jackson_dem]

71. If she wins the popular vote the "pledged delegate" card is out the window

Especially since she would have to dominate the remaining states, especially the big ones, in order to win the popular vote. How many sd's will be bound by a scheme that gives a 17,000 vote win in Idaho the same weight as a 230,000 vote win in Ohio?

You make a great point. If Obamies truly believe it is over why do they keep attacking an irrelevant candidate? Some do it because they are closet rethugs but most do it because they know, despite what what the church of Obama's doctrine holds, that he may very well lose the nomination.

[rodeodance]

76. They have played that card ad nausea!!

[Justice Is Comin]

81. If it wasn't for Edwards,

he would be gone already.

Wait until Rezko gets immunity on the condition that he disclose any political favors that were done while the two were cozy.

Obama goes :nuke:

[rodeodance]

78. BO camp is in damage control mode this week (Powers, nafta lies)--supporters

are in tizzy. I have empathy for them (a bit-)

[jlake]

79. Then you're a better person than I. I relish in their defeat - they have been so hateful and vile

to Hillary and her supporters.

[rodeodance]

83. yes. they have been---and getting more so by the day now that hillary has the MOJO

[Gore1FL]

84. "Hillary is in this 50/50 - and I think she's going to win."

Hillary is in this 50/50 if your margin of error is +/-5%

Come up with a realistic scenario where Clinton closes the Pledged Delegate gap, or manages the 60%-85% of the Super delegates she will need.

You keep posting things, and I keep asking for this. Maybe dedicate one oif your 3 daily posts to specifically answer this.

[jlake]

87. And I keep answering. Hillary is going to have some HUGE wins coming up

she is going to severely tighten the PD gap... and win the popular vote by a substantial margin..... she is going to prove she is more electable than Obama and pull strongly ahead in national polls (indicating that many who previously supported Obama have changed their minds)
She will build a case for the Super delegates to support her - not by
"stealing the nomination" but by demonstrating that her nomination IS the will of REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.
Obama knows this - and he is terrified.

[Gore1FL]

94. OK where?

go here. Come up with a scenario and post it:

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

[rodeodance]

86. Luv yah jlake. I think so many of them in the vile camp so long--they have

trouble digging themselves out. instead they just dig deeper into their hate hole!

[Warren DeMontague]

96. I cast despair.

Voila.

[Blue_Roses]

102. grow the fuck up ...

how old are you...18? :eyes:

You got a lot to learn yungin'

[VotesForWomen]

105. well said; you can smell their fear. nt

[LaurenG]

109. I agree why bash her and each other? No one knows how this will play out

in the end. Rules change, people change their minds, and deals are brokered behind closed doors.

The only thing I'd like to see is more honesty but when it's something we feel deeply about we don't see as clearly as we should.

I agree go after McCain.

[Teaser]

110. "cast despair?"

.

[barack the house]

115. Howard Dean is on record undecided superdlegates go to the candidate with most pledged delegates. ..

We don't say anything to hurt peoples feelings that is just what happens to be true no numbers say she will be leading by the end. If it causes folks offence but it is far worse of us to lie and say this isn't rue.

[jlake]

120. Howard Dean does not get to decide how SDs vote....... so his words are useless.

[susankh4]

117. At this point I believe

it is simply a matter of which camp implodes first.

And if they both do.. we'll get an appointed white guy as a candidate.

[rodeodance]

121. :-(

[zabet]

122. !

:kick:

[libbygurl]

123. K n R! nt