Florida 2nd Primary Poll - Rasmussen: Hillary 55 - Obama 39

[Lucinda]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_democratic_primary

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Florida Democrats favor a “do-over” Presidential Primary in their state. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 28% of Democrats are opposed.

[CyberPieHole]

1. Hillary won the first time...no need for do~overs.

Why change the rules mid~way?

[cali]

4. The rules are that Florida's delegates don't count

if you want to stick by that, fine with me.

[aquarius dawning]

40. There's a higher set of rules that trumps those rules.

[Orsino]

45. Like the end justifying the means.

I would like to see a real Florida primary.

[GodlessBiker]

46. Only if you make Hebrew National hot dogs.

[Honeycombe8]

49. Those are called "Billary Rules," I think. And that is meant in more than one way.

Get it? The rules of Billary. But also....Billary Rules (as in Billary Rocks).

Of course, they don't really (rock OR rule).

[damitajo1]

56. that's what katherine harris said.

http://www.blackprof.com/?p=1991

[Mooney]

ROTFLMAO!

HRC is the one who's been trying to change the rules midway for the last month.

You need some new material. Nobody's buying this.

[Lucinda]

17. LOL. Point taken, but it won't play out that way.

[OzarkDem]

39. Agree

[jefferson_dem]

41. Me too.

They fucked up and broke the rules. No do-overs. FL gets no say this time.

[BootinUp]

47. yep, but she'll wax him the second time too. nt

[yourguide]

51. you know what

if she does beat him the second time, which she likely will...so what? at least it will have been a fair vote.

[tekisui]

48. Let's not change the rules mid-way, don't seat the delegates.

Rules are rules.

[mckeown1128]

50. There was no first time....

FL didn't have an election for Delegates... so that election was similar to the Primary in WA. Nothing but a symbolic vote. Fl has yet to have an offical delegate awarding primary.

[Honeycombe8]

54. You know that to count the delegates NOW would be unfair. You don't change the rules mid-way thru.

ALL the candidates agreed with the Dem. Party's decision not to count the elections in MI and FL because they were flouting the Party's rules intentionally.

So the candidates didn't campaign there...virtually ensuring a huge win by the ONLY nationally known candidate (the Clintons). The other candidates would have had a chance to win, or even make a good showing, IF, and ONLY IF, they had campaigned in those states.

To count the false wins now would mean: The Dem. Party's decisions mean nothing; the Dem. Party would be changing the rules mid-way through the election process; and that it is okay to win by hook or crook, as long as the Clintons win.

I'm sure, as a loyal and ethical Democrat, you wouldn't want the process to be unfair, and you wouldn't want your party's decisions to be meaningless.

So that settles it.

[Ravy]

2. I think that was about the same totals as the first primary.

Although that is bound to change some as it draws nearer (if it happens)

I still think Hillary will win if re-voted.

[Lucinda]

10. Hillary is up 5 Obama 6 from the actual vote. So not really much change.

The undecideds would break for one or the other. I agree that Hillary would be favored right now.

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL

[Ravy]

16. Edwards got my vote the first time around. Will probably get it again

unless he removes his name from the ballot.

[Lucinda]

19. I hope whoever gets the nom is smart enough to use JE

We need him.

[Ravy]

23. I would love to see that. However,

I am convinced that the superdelegates (politicians) will put pressure on Obama to choose Clinton as VP, or give him the option of being her VP with a promise of a future nomination.

I can't see politicians (superdelegates) not trying to get both camps together for a big November victory.

JE for AG at the minimum!

[Lucinda]

24. AG would work for me. I'd prefer Veep, but a merger does make the most sense.

:)

[catgirl]

42. Until Obama campaigns there (nt)

[Honeycombe8]

55. Of course the Clintons would win FL in a re-vote. That's not the point.

The point is...her margin of victory would be less (we all know that). And Obama would at least have a chance of campaigning there and becoming more well known (the Clintons don't need to do that...they are already nationally known very well).

As for MI, I don't know who would win that in a re-vote. Probably Clinton, since supposedly it's a lot like Ohio, but by less of a margin.

[salbi]

57. Hillary will probably win Florida, Obama probably in Michigan

I do think there should be a revote if they want their votes to count. Even with a revote, I think Hillary will take FL, but Obama will still pick up some of the delegates, and if he wins Michigan, it should almost even out. So, if they have the money and want to do it over, let them, in the end, I don't think it will make much of difference in the delegate count spread.

[Patsy Stone]

60. Please don't forget that our primary was really, really early.

Most of Hillary's votes were from two weeks of early voting, cast before he won Iowa. I'll be very interested to see what the outcome is now that people know their votes will actually count and, especially, if he campaigns here.

[Ravy]

69. I don't think we could vote before Iowa.

Before SC, yes.

But the older population demographic here favors Clinton, and we have lots of that around here (myself included)

[Patsy Stone]

71. You're right, my bad

Early voting began January 14.

She certainly has a base here, I know that. I just think he'll do somewhat better now than he did then.

[Ravy]

75. I don't doubt that. He is a fantastic campaigner. nt

[Patsy Stone]

77. And, actually,

upon doing further research, this article says some absentee ballots were mailed out in December, 2007. So it is possible people voted before Iowa.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-flbregistersid1227sbdec27,0,4969589.story

Don'tcha love elections here in FL? :)

[cali]

3. I wish both sides would stop worrying about this

It'll be worked out- one way or the other. There are plenty of potential solutions, though not everyone will get what they want. I personally prefer a revote, but they could also do what the rethugs did and halve the delegates from FL or MI. Or come up with some other formula.

[Lucinda]

7. I'd rather they split the Michigan delegates, let Florida stand and move on to other things

We're running out of time. Someone from Florida said on CNN today that it would take 90 days to prep another election and there wasn't time to get it done unless they set things in motion immediately.

[cali]

11. That won't and can't happen. You can't punish MI and

reward FL and no way would Dean do something that unfair. If it takes to long to set up another election, than simply halve the delgate count. It looks like MI will set up a revote. If FL can't or won't, halve the delegates and move on, but you can't simply allow them to flout the rules.

[Lucinda]

14. It wouldn't punnish anyone but Hillary by 5% in Michigan.

And the redo polling I saw earlier has them tied there. Lost the link but it's at Rass too.

[cali]

18. It's not about punishing Hillary

It's about sticking to the rules and not allowing states to pull this crap after they've agreed to a schedule. It doesn't even matter if the punishment is largely symbolic.

[Lucinda]

22. Both states were told by Dean the delegates would be seated long before this turned into chaos

because EVERYONE thought the'd have the nominee before it mattered and they'd be chastised but participating.

Now they've screwed up and we need a solution.
They will not go to convention without seating the delegates one way or the other.
It's political suicide for us in the general.

[cali]

26. They certainly were NOT told that by Dean

It's reprehensible to make such a misleading statement. And why people think this is suicide for us in the general is beyond me. Florida is probably a lost cause no matter what, and MI is probably in the dem win column no matter what due to a tanking economy. In any case Dean certainly did not tell the two states that he'd seat their delegates as is.

[Lucinda]

30. A woman from the Michigan Dem committee said it on CNN last night.

She was talking about the situation before the votes ended up mattering as I said in my post "before this turned into chaos"

NOT as it stands now.

It was DEBBIE DINGELL
Transcript:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0803/07/se.01.html

<snip>
ROBERTS: You were warned, though, weren't you, many times about the consequences?

DINGELL: But you know what? This is the one thing that I want to say.

ROBERTS: OK.

DINGELL: Nobody thought we would be here, including the two presidential candidates and Howard Dean, who came to Michigan and Florida, by the way, and said, they're going to seat your delegations.

So, this is about a fight that's still a very legitimate fight. And, at the end of this, one of the other things that has to happen is this presidential nominating system must be changed.
</>

[cali]

34. Howard Dean has not said it

and we know he's not a liar.

[Lucinda]

35. I posted the link

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

63. You do not spell Dean D-i-n-g-e-l-l.

:shrug:

[Lucinda]

76. What part the posts are you having trouble with? She is a DNC member

stating what happened.

[Honeycombe8]

58. FL votes can't be counted "as is." It's unfair and would be changing the rules mid-way thru.

Since Clinton was the ONLY candidate well known nationally, it was a given that she would win big in both MI and FL, if they went ahead with their primaries, since the lesser known candidates would not be campaigning there.

The Clinton win in FL is based in part on name recognition at that time. That is flatly unfair. In a close election, it might matter that Obama could (and would) narrow the margin of the Clinton win, if he were to campaign there.

I personally don't think MI or FL should be counted at all, because they intentionally disregarded the Dem Party's rules, after they were told what the consequences would be. Their being counted "as is" is also being pushed by a Republican governor (hmmmmmm). The voters in those states need to look to their legislators about their votes being disregarded. This predicament was NOT caused by the Dem. Party, the candidates, or the millions of other Dem. voters in the nation. It was caused by a handful of legislators in MI and FL, many of whom WERE REPUBLICAN.

[UALRBSofL]

66. cali, I have to disagree

I think the jan 29th primary should stand. A new primary is too expensive. Our primary was fair, no one campaigned other then Obamas ads and so it was a fair field. The candidates should get the votes and delegates per our jan 29th primary.

[madfloridian]

5. I don't think do-overs should be allowed.

Dean said ok to it because he said the people did not do it...their leaders did. I can see that.

[joshcryer]

20. Yeah, Dean is a reasonable person.

People on this message board, not so much.

Still don't think your rationale makes sense. I was against a do-over a few weeks back because it would not make them learn their lesson, but at this point they're going to go to the DNC (FL not Hillary's campaign), and try to break down the doors to be seated. It is a political nightmare, so either make them legitimatized in the view of the DNC (seat them) or have them do-over.

[acrosstheuniverse]

6. Well shit

There goes his delegate lead and here comes a Republican landslide.

Only 54% of Obama voters are very likely to vote for Clinton in November.
Only 42% of Clinton voters will be very likely to vote for Obama.


Clinton should have dropped out to save us from this destruction of the party.

[Lucinda]

8. I think thats because people are angry right now. I don't think it would stay that way.

[Gore1FL]

15. MI and FL as they stand

eliminate roughly 1/3 of Obama's current lead.

She still won't catch him. The math still screws her.

[musicblind]

27. Where are you getting those numbers??? Here are the actual numbers

from CNN's Exit Polls:

Ohio
73% of democrats would be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee
66% of democrats would be satisfied if Obama is the nominee

Texas
71% of democrats would be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee
65% of democrats would be satisfied with Obama as the nominee

Rhode Island
75% of democrats would be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee
63% of democrats would be satisfied with Obama as the nominee

and now… in Vermont… which is extremely hostile territory for Clinton and very pro-Obama…

Vermont
70% of democrats would be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee
82% of democrats would be satisfied with Obama as the nominee

[Eurobabe]

9. No wonder Clintoon is pushing for a do-over!

[Liquorice]

12. Ugh, 'Clintoon.' That's just awful. nt

[Lucinda]

13. Why? With these current numbers there is a +1 gain for Obama.

[cali]

21. He hasn't campaigned there yet

In every state that he's campaigned in, he's tightened things up considerably. Nevertheless, it's unlikely that there will be a revote. I'll tell you one thing though; no way that Dean will give in to Hillary. Anyone that thinks that the full FL delegate slate will be seated, does not know the stubborness of Dean when he believes he's right. I do. He was my guv for 11 years, and that stubborness was legendary.

[BadgerLaw2010]

59. He's been against seating and a revote. He's going to get slaughtered.

[stillcool]

68. Liar.

He has agreed to abide by the DNC rules. He has no horse in this race. Hillary wants to ride solo, and claim that she won.

[UALRBSofL]

67. That's because Dean knows florida would vote for Hillary

Florida is Hillary's base and he knows this. And, because he supports Obama he will force the issue of not allowing florida to count. It will be interesting to see how florida goes in november especially since Crist is getting in the middle of it and telling the florida residents there votes didn't count and he's putting the blame on Howard Dean, DNC, and the Obama campaign because Obama doesn't want a re-vote.

[LulaMay]

25. What a waste of time and money to get the same result.

[cali]

28. Put down your dime store crystal ball

In every state where Obama has campaigned he's closed the gap. Every single one. And no way is Dean going to be bullied by the hilly camp. If you think that's gonna happen, you don't know Howard.

[LulaMay]

31. Florida voters appreciate her support for seating their delegates. She'd probably win even bigger

[Hepburn]

32. Is this the Hillbot version of that old saying and it has now become...

..."Cheaters always prosper?"

[cali]

33. I doubt it and just who are YOU to be so presumptuous as to

speak for FL dems?

[LulaMay]

36. I'm not. It's been all over the news that state party leaders and voters appreciate her.

but, doubt it all you want.

[cali]

37. Yes, those party leaders who have endorsed her run around

threatening Dean. So charming. They're no match for him and neither is hilly. Of course I doubt the likes of hillbots. And I've seen polls reflecting that the people of FL are not nearly as outraged as the hillyworld denizens want to believe.

[iwillalwayswonderwhy]

52. Well, as a Florida dem, I'll speak for myself...

My vote should count every bit as much as anybody else. We are told to sit down and shut up. It was the REPUBLICANS who moved the primary, I, a member of the Democratic party, nor any Democrat, had anything to do with it.

Splitting the votes makes no sense, because the people who voted do not get counted. We want to be counted, damn it.

I do not understand why anybody can't see that.

But go ahead, disenfranchise an entire state based on what Republicans did. That will make for some proud Florida Democrats come November. Cause quite frankly, a lot of us are getting a sense of "why bother to vote? We don't get counted anyway."

[UALRBSofL]

74. Lulamay that's how I see it as well

She came to florida after our primary and she didn't have too. She seems concerned that our votes count because the constitution gives us the right to vote and our votes be heard. Obama is trying to muzzle florida and doesn't care how we fill. That's one of the reasons I support her. She is very concerned about the folks of florida.

[MadBadger]

29. The whole argument has been that nobody campaigned there

Well, nobody's campaigned there and Obama has gained a point. Wait to see what happens if he gets a chance to campaign there. This is the highest her lead will be in any poll you see.

[boston bean]

53. Yes you are right only if obama campaigns, what if Hillary campaigns too.

Obama supports have no bounds for fairness or common sense.

[The Backlash Cometh]

38. Hillary will take Florida.

Hillary's politics are very much in line with the way Florida works. I don't mean that in a good way. I bet it's the same kind of politics as Arkansas and maybe even Arizona. Maybe Hillary doesn't realize that the jig is up with that kind of dirty pool?

[salbi]

61. I agree about FL, but he may win MI

[rug]

43. That's better than she did the first time.

[laban]

44. Rasmussen March 08 - Mississippi: Obama 53% Clinton 39%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/mississippi_democratic_presidential_primary

[Upton]

64. I'd like it closer to a 20% Obama win

but we'll see. Interesting how the poll notes a "deepening divide in the party", gee, I never would have noticed.

[Dems Will Win]

62. Gee that's too bad for Hillary, she needs 59% to get those extra delegates

FL won't do her enough good to stop the big O.

[Bucky]

65. Remember when we used to say "She needs 65% to win"?

Our boy needs to dig in and slug back. It's called politics.

[susankh4]

70. Of course!

FLA is Clinton Country. As is MI. One is seniors and latinos. The other is working class.

Seems awfully fishy that the two of them were omitted from seating delegates, doesn't it?

A little "handicapping" going on I wonder???

[npincus]

72. the old ladies LOVE Hillary...

my mom is one... if I say anything critical of Hillary she gets mad at me... so I save it for DU! :rofl:

Visit any retirement comunity down there... it's like a 4:1 female to male ratio (unscientific- my observation only). Those are your Hillary voters and they won't budge.

[npincus]

73. If a re-do election in FL., i wish they'd hold it while college is in session,

before recess.