Anyone remember this map?

[SoCalDem]

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/election2004.htm



George W. Bush won the 2004 presidential election, with 286 electoral votes of the required 270. (in the 2000 election he won 271 electoral votes).

This map shows that vote by state.

The red states represent those won by George Bush; the blue states by John Kerry.

Bush won 31 states and 50.73% of the popular vote nation-wide.

Senator Kerry won 19 states plus Washington, D.C. with 252 electoral votes, and 48.27% of the popular vote.

The popular vote total for Mr. Bush of 62,040,610 was the highest popular vote for any U.S. president in history. Challenger John Kerry had 59,028,444 votes.

The winning vote margin for Mr. Bush was 3,012,166. (in the 2000 election Mr. Bush lost the popular vote although he won the election).

The total Bush-Kerry voter turn-out was 121.1 million. This 2004 turnout was 14.9% higher than the 2000 election year turnout of 105.4 million.

_____________________________________

I can see Obama adding CO,GA,IA,MO,NC,SC, & VA to states that Kerry won.. 330 EVs

Take away MI and PA from the mix and he still gets 292..

After losing a substantial part of the base, Hillary will not be able to win any additional states that Kerry did not win..and she'll probably lose a few that Kerry won..

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. Clinton would win Ohio and Arkansas

[tekisui]

3. Good we have two winners!

[Milo_Bloom]

7. Not a chance.

No way Clinton could win Ohio or Arkansas in the GE against McCain. With Clinton CA would go into play as well.

[Hepburn]

13. California here....

....at this point in time, I do agree ~~ California would be in play if the Dems make the mistake of giving the nom to Hillary.

[Hawaii Hiker]

31. California will NEVER go Republican, as the far right social conservative shit

will never fly there....I'm an Obama supporter, but either candiate would win CA. easily....

CA & NY will stay dark navy blue in Nov. whether its HRC or Obama....

[Milo_Bloom]

37. McCain isn't seen as a far right.

Whether it is true or not, the public perception is that he is a middle of the road maverick and CA loves that type of person.

A very popular governor will continue to sell that story to the population and the election would become

Politics as usual (Clinton) vs A Maverick (McCain)

And that would put CA into play.

[amborin]

46. California could go Red in the GE

only along the coast is it blue

Hispanics like McCain

[grantcart]

54. Hispaics went to Hillary because the hispanic machinery went for her

[SoCalDem]

55. Leafblowers for Hillary... both generate hot air..

sorry I could not stop myself :spank:

[amborin]

61. vicious and...

[Cali_Democrat]

73. I live in California

No way in hell it will go to McCain. Not a snowflakes chance in hell.

[woolldog]

44. I'm in California too

But I don't think there's a chance in hell CA would go to McCain over Hillary or Obama. Both democrats should do well here.

[SoCalDem]

53. a major portion of CA blue-votes come out of LA county & near SF & Oakland

I'm not so sure those votes transfer to her..not after SC

[davidinalameda]

56. I don't think either Obama nor Hillary would lose California

but hell, let McCain start spending here

let him blow his wad on the media here and not have enough left for real battle ground states

[woolldog]

59. SC was before the CA primary.

LA county is actually majority latino. It will go heavily for the democratic nominee no matter what.

Alameda county (ie oakland, berkeley, and environs) went to Obama but it will go to Hillary in the GE. Used to live there and its very pro-democrat. No way will it go to McCain or will he siphon off votes there. Some AAs may stay home but it won't really effect CA. It may very well be a factor in states like PA (Philly is the only reason Dems carry PA: +400k difference in Philly between Kerry and Bush in favor of Kerry in 2004, and Kerry won the state by 200k), and FL, but it won't be in CA.

Same with SF county. It will go heavily democratic

All those counties have hardcore democrats who will vote dem in the GE

[SOS]

33. Agree, zero chance to win Ohio

Ohio is a red state. A review of Ohio in the general bears this out.
The last two Democrats to get over 50% in Ohio were FDR in 1942 and LBJ in 1964.
After seven weeks of slash and burn in PA, we can write that off too.
Kerry beat Bush in PA by less than 2% in 2004.
PA will most likely go to McCain.

[Lucinda]

43. She got twice the votes McCain did in AR. And just short of twice in Ohio.

Even when you add all the votes the others got, she'd still win both states.

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=OH
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=AR

[SoCalDem]

45. Mccain had more people running against him.. their votes plus his

224581.. but Huckleberry won AR..not Mccain

If HRC is the candidate the republes would turn out..not FOR him..but AGAINST her...take it to the bank

[Lucinda]

50. So you assume she wouldn't get any of the Obama voters then?

Okiedokie.

[SoCalDem]

51. probably some

okiedokie

[Lucinda]

52. LOL

Okiedokie. :)

[amborin]

48. With Obama, California comes into play

Ca is solidly behind Clinton

Ca is blue along the coast, red inland

Hispanics like McCain

[Milo_Bloom]

65. Nah, Obama easily gets CA... CLinton would probably lose.

After her smearing Obama, it is unlike she would get significant minority support.


She won't get the far left vote, because of her war mongering.


With a very popular "moderate" GOP governor campaigning for a "moderate" candidate... Clinton doesn't stand much of a chance.

I know a lot of CA dems from the Dean movement last time around, none of which would consider voting for Clinton in a GE... doubt they would vote for McCain either, but it is indicitive of why she will put CA into play... The usual suspects won't support her.

[SoCalDem]

8. Bush won by 9 points and it's been a long time since HRC lived there

bear in mind too, how pissed off the black voters are at her and BC..

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

19. Survey USA has been quite reliable this year, and gives her the nod there as of this time

Polls are far from perfect, but they are what they are

[Exilednight]

12. The last poll I saw shows that Hillary would lose Ohio in the GE to McCain...

she will also probably lose Pa.

[RazBerryBeret]

21. not so sure

about Ohio....it's a pretty red state. I'm a Buckeye--not too proud of that fact. (that it's red, I mean--I'm proud to be a buckeye!)

[Dark]

32. Ohio, yes. Arkansas, I don't know. n/t

[tekisui]

2. I don't think he could get NC or SC, but add NM and maybe NV.

He should take PA.

[SoCalDem]

4. NV and NM are neighbors to McCain's home state

I think he keeps them..He would be more popular there than Bush..

[democrattotheend]

11. NM should still be competitive

That state has been decided by less than 1% in the last 2 presidential elections. It will be tougher this year with McCain as the GOP nominee, but if Clinton or Obama picks Richardson for VP, that could put the state back in our column.

[SoCalDem]

16. It's too bad Richardson's DAD had been the hispanic in his family

He keeps having to remind everyone he's hispanic.. people often don;t even know it..

[amborin]

whoops, duplicate post

[amborin]

49. doubtful Obama could get either Carolina

[kwenu]

5. Well Said.

:applause:

[napi21]

6. Oh I remember it well, but I still don't understand why!

All I can think is that most people really didn't like Kerry!

[SoCalDem]

10. That's true, but his negatives were smaller than hers are

and he allowed himself to be swiftboated.. I doubt that either BHO or HRC would allow that, so it's a wash this time around.. and Kerry didn;t have a lot of money to fight back either.

[democrattotheend]

9. I don't know about SC and GA

That sounds like a pipe dream. NC maybe, but it's a long shot. VA, IA, MO and CO I could see, although the southwest will be tough with McCain as the nominee.

[SoCalDem]

14. Thats why I left the southwest off my list

SC and Georgia would be FIRED UP..if Obama's the candidate..and republes in the south don;t like McCain much..I can't see them getting all inspired to even vote..unless it;s to vote AGAINST HRC.

[Yossariant]

77. In the last 50 years, Bill Clinton won GA once and Carter twice.

It's a pipe dream that Obama could win GA.

South Carolina?!?! :rofl:

[Zynx]

15. Obama winning GA, NC, and SC? HA!

And how would that happen? Magic fairy dust?

[SoCalDem]

20. Mccain is NOT well-liked in the south

and may sit out..a fired up democratic population could make the difference..

[Zynx]

23. We have to overcome margins in GA and SC that are as big as we won RI by.

We have to overcome a margin as big as we won Maryland by to carry NC. I don't see it.

[newfie4]

34. And Obama is not well liked by Clinton supporters

Who will either sit this one out or vote McCain.

[BooScout]

62. You are seriously deluding yourself.....

There's no way in hell Obama will win Georgia. It will go for McCain. Just because Obama wins in the Democratic Primary in a state does not give him the state in the GE. WTF can't you people get that thru your thick heads?

[Spider Jerusalem]

68. Clinton won Georgia in 1992.

And the demographics have shifted since then; the population of the Atlanta metropolitan area has doubled, with most of the new resodents being out-of state transplants. There's also a much higher number of educated professionals; combine that with large student populations in Altanta and Athens, and with a large African-American demographic, and Obama could most definitely put Georgia in play in November. Clinton, on the other hand, is far less likely to. (And I live in Atlanta, so I have SOME idea of what I'm talking about.)

[BooScout]

74. No actually you don't...

Those out of state transplants are virtually all Republicans. I'll agree the Demographics have shifted since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. It has gone red. Georgia now has a Republican Governor and Legislature. The first since the civil war. They weren't there when Clinton won in 1992.

And I know because Atlanta is my home town. So I have some clue too.

I'm also realistic in that I recognize the fact that neither Clinton nor Obama will take Georgia. Just because Obama took it in the primary does not give it a lock come November, something most Obama supporters, because they are so naive have yet to grasp the understanding of.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

17. Primary map for the Dems is always all blue and for the Repukes it is alwyas all red........

you can not think that Obama or Clinton can or will turn those red states blue in the GE..it doesn't happen

[semass]

29. Only since 2000 actually

Up to and including 2000 blue represented the incumbent party and red the challenger party. Hence, Gore states were blue because the Democrats held the White House. Because of the 2000 fiasco, the colors became identified with the parties and the networks left it that way.

[SoFlaJet]

18. That's why Dean is a fuck up SCD

with his "50state strategy" look how nice it's all color coded up with blue fringes around the edges and the red body. No wonder James Carville hates him-the DLC worked HARD on that map

[ContinentalOp]

27. LOL

[BringBigDogBack]

67. seconded

[Upton]

22. If Clinton is the nominee we could lose Wa.

polls show McCain as much as 8% up. The same polls show Obama defeating McCain.

[LiberalAndProud]

24. And there is the "purple" factor to consider.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4935986

[SoCalDem]

25. Herer's a cool site that morphs the maps

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

[CyberPieHole]

26. NOT all of Clinton's supporters will vote for Obama. Some will vote for McCain and some WON'T VOTE.

There are more McCainDemocrats than there are ObamaRepublicans. If Obama gets the nod, you can rest assured that after all the vitriol and with Obama's calling Hillary a "MONSTER" many of us will either NOT VOTE or some of us are going to vote for McCain.

I, personally will never vote for McCain or any republican, but I will also NEVER vote for Obama. So, don't go counting your chickens, cause they aren't ALL gonna hatch.

[SoCalDem]

28. Well hello ...President McCain

:)

[Vinca]

40. But you're making the assumption Obama supporters will fall in line

like good, little soldiers. Hillary has no chance of winning without us, should the nightmare scenario ensue. Maybe we'll vote for McCain or stay home. It works both ways. In the end we have to decide between the Democrat and McCain. If you like McCain, then stay home if Obama is the candidate.

[CyberPieHole]

41. I haven't made that assumption ever. If YOU like McCain, stay home if Clinton is the nominee.

Obama has NO chance of winning without the supporters of Clinton voting for HIM. With the vitriol continuing we can assure ourselves a McCain victory. I say, let the chips fall where they may. I'm not going to vote for Obama just to please the party.

[SoCalDem]

58. See what the vitriol her campaign started, has done

It's turned people OFF who would have voted for her happily (I was one of them)

Her campaign has pissed in the pool..bigtime and put us in a Bushian position..split us down the middle and hardened our positions..

Just like Bush did to the country:(

[Carolina]

70. exactly, Hillbots project too much

Their candidate started and continues the kitchen sink mode to the extent of lauding McCain while trashing Obama. Fuck her.

I was reluctant to vote for her (should it have come to that) because of IWR and her ongoing war support until its unpopularity smacked her and her POTUS dream in the face. With her campaign tactics, however, I have decided that I will not vote for her: no way, no how, not ever!

[semass]

30. What these early polls don't take into account...

What kind of a hot button referendum question will the Repukes try to get on the ballot in states that they consider tossups in order to draw out their base? What will be 2008's gay marriage question? My guess is that it will have to do with illegal aliens.

[Ravy]

35. Yet, when you use that SAME map to map Obama/Clinton states,

Clinton just needs one more state to wrap this up.

[SoCalDem]

36. before or after the Obama voters bail from the whole thing?

:evilgrin:

[Ravy]

38. Well, my personal view is that superdelegates are going to

give Obama a choice. Put Hillary on your ticket, or choose to be her VP and we will ensure your nomination in the future and you can choose your own terms.

I think that is an interesting proposition and the politician's way of splitting the baby.

[SoCalDem]

39. a split baby is a dead baby.. Obama will say NO thanks

he has standards and has no desire to be the 3rd man..BC will be the de facto Cheney-style prez..Hillary will play George W..and Obama would be "the black guy they send around" to show how inclusive they are..and he would be expected to keep his mouth shut and follow orders..

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

42. I linked another map to explain Obama's Reagan remarks earlier today:

Never let this happen again or you'll waste a generation just trying to get back where you started from.

[BzaDem]

47. Sorry. You are delusional.

Obama might add ONE of those states. After the Republicans have their turn bashing him for months, he will start losing states we take for granted. Unfortunately, it will take another loss in November (or probably several) before we realize we need to nominate electable candidates.

[sampsonblk]

57. We nominated an electable candidate in 2004 and he got his ass kicked-nt

[BzaDem]

63. EXACTLY!

We nominated Kerry in 2004. He was relatively unknown, and republicans swiftboated him to death using LIES.

Now we might nominate Obama in 2008. Completely unknown to the general public. Most swiftboatable candidate in history, and we know this NOW. They don't even have to use lies: they can just string together FACTS and landslide this election. Since Obama is unknown to the general electorate, Republicans will be able to define him with swiftboating. Yet most Obama supporters are completely blind to this.

[sampsonblk]

64. All we have to do is fight back. Why always worry about what they are going to do?

1. Kerry wasn't relatively unknown. He is and was a world famous man.

2. Why not let the GOPers worry about what we are going to do for a change.

They are in trouble here, not us. They are in really bad shape.

[BzaDem]

66. We should let GOPers worry about what we'll do for a change. I.e. nominate Clinton.

They are and have been worried about Clinton for years. Clinton is a fighter, and she will fight the Republicans every step she can.

Obama's whole message about how the whole world will come together and rejoice at his brand of politics isn't consistent with this. He can't go negative without contradicting his own main theme. Republican's won't worry at all about Obama, they'll just throw him to the wolves.

And Kerry was relatively unknown compared to Clinton. They were easily able to redefine Kerry. They can't redefine Clinton. She has been defined in most people's minds for 16 years.

[sampsonblk]

80. For such a fighter, she sure is getting whooped!

Doesn't sound so tough to me, not anymore.

[Carolina]

71. and Hillbots are completely blind

to the fact that repukes hate Hillary Rodham Clinton. Their Clinton loathing will bring them out in droves to vote against her; she will unite them in a way McCain can only dream of.

Add to that the fact that independents are not likely to lean her way and now many Dems will not vote for her either. Ding, ding, ding: HRC IS THE BIG LOSER!

[SoCalDem]

72. She's counting on numbers that are not real..

At the beginning, they MIGHT have been transferrable between candidates...but not now..

[BooScout]

60. Obama will never take Georgia....

Not now, not in November, not ever. Honestly, where do you come up with this stuff?

[mudesi]

69. I remember THIS map

[susankh4]

75. Survey USA's current calculations for McCain/Obama:

[SoCalDem]

79. New Jersey to McCain?? really?? n/t

[susankh4]

81. Yep. That's what the numbers indicated.

Alot can change of course... in either direction... between now and November.

[susankh4]

76. Survey USA's current calculations for McCain/Clinton

[SoCalDem]

78. Florida, Ohio & West Virginia scare me on that map

all it takes is for ONE state to bolt the other way and she's a goner....

[susankh4]

82. Well... that's true of either projected map.

And alot can happen between now and November.