THE MATH - March 8 - After Wyoming

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – March 8 – After Wyoming

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 8:
Hillary Clinton – 1,475.5 (549.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,598.5 (426.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 948.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/8/08)

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates:
Hillary Clinton – 1,230.5
Barack Obama – 1,388.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 608.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/8/08)

Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton – 1,838.5 (186.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama – 1,996.5 (28.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 245 (Source: CBS 3/8/08)
Barack Obama – 210 (Source: AP 3/8/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 340

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS

These are ALL the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated.

Scenario 1 - Status Quo
CLINTON NEEDS 63.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.0%

Scenario 2 - New elections in FL and MI
CLINTON NEEDS 58.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.4%

Scenario 3 - MI seated as is, FL seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 53.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 46.2%

Scenario 4 - FL not seated, New election in MI
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%

Scenario 5 - MI not seated, New election in FL
CLINTON NEEDS 60.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.0%

Scenario 6 - FL seated as is, MI not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 59.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.1%

Scenario 7 - FL seated as is, New election in MI
CLINTON NEEDS 58.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.8%

Scenario 8 - MI seated as is, FL not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 56.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.1%

Scenario 9 - MI seated as is, New election in FL
CLINTON NEEDS 55.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.7%

:popcorn:

[SoFlaJet]

1. Wow great thread

phrigndumass-good work

[phrigndumass]

2. Thanks

Thought I'd share my OCD ...

:hi:

[jazzjunkysue]

34. That's a great handicapp. I could use a little of that!!!

So, HRC needs 2/3's of the eyt-undeclared delegates and Obama only needs 18.

But, Penn. will help her alot.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. So in other words: She needs divine intervention to win this thing?

Sounds a lot like another candidate we know...

[City Lights]

6. Maybe if she learns how to give a good speech the sky will open...

;-)

[CitizenLeft]

47. okay, damn

:rofl:

[Auntie Bush]

36. Also, In so many words...HE needs divine intervention to win this thing.

Or some super delegate help. Since he can't win...maybe he should drop out for the good of the party...and take the VP offer if it's still good.

[Drunken Irishman]

46. I think the fact he has the lead in the popular vote and has more delegates, he has the better case.

[JackORoses]

4. if Obama wins MS with > 55%, does the 'New Election in FL and MI' number approach 60%?

I think that if this is the case,
the Superdelegates will come out en masse for Obama.

Because the only acceptable way of seating MI and FL is a revote. Once it has become obvious that even these contests could not save Hillary, the Party will end this.

[phrigndumass]

8. Answer is No

There are only 33 delegates in Mississippi. A big loss or a big win there won't change the totals much.

:hi:

[Cali_Democrat]

18. Obama will probably win North Carolina and Oregon

OR at least Oregon will be very close. He will win Mississippi. I wonder what the math is then. Divine intervention would be an understatement.

[phrigndumass]

11. There's only one scenario where Clinton has a real chance

... and that is to fight for the seating of the delegates from both Florida and Michigan based on the January results.

Even if there were new elections in Florida and Michigan, Clinton would still need to win by 17 percentage points in all the remaining contests (including Florida and Michigan).

So her only chance is to fight for seating the delegates as is, AND let the mudslinging begin in a huge way.

[eyeontheprize]

21. Her people are pushing hard,

but it doesn't look like they've made much ground.

All they can do is hope that they cause enough chaos at the convention to pick it up on the third ballot or so. Who knows, a normal candidate would have conceded for the good of the Party and nation by now.

[AtomicKitten]

5. Those numbers are downright tasty.

[Auntie Bush]

37. How about these numbers?

ABC: Hillary Clinton has received 13,568,891 votes so far in primaries and caucuses while Sen. Obama has received 13,565,339.

NBC/MSNBC: Hillary Clinton has received 13,521,832 votes so far in primaries and caucuses while Sen. Obama has received 13,497,175.

In addition to the overall lead in votes, Hillary holds a significant lead in votes among Democrats. Hillary has received nearly 10.3 million votes among Democrats so far while Sen. Obama has received 9.2 million.

[AtomicKitten]

41. Barack Obama is winning and Hilly can't catch up.

Too bad.
So sad.

:nopity:

[druidity33]

49. well hey

10.3 plus 9.2 equals a lot less than 27. Might wanna see if those #'s are right. Especially since it looks like HRC got more R votes than BHO in Texas and Ohio.

As far as the ABC/NBC/MSNBC/ETC numbers, those are close to the thousandth percentile. Not a strong argument for HRC.


:shrug:



you can keep trying to spin it, but honestly, she's history.

[phrigndumass]

50. That's only if you add both Michigan and Florida

The status quo is that neither state will be seated.

Check out today's update for more information:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4984865

:hi:

[Zachstar]

7. Awesome!! K&R

Every net gain for Obama is a disaster for the future of this race for Clinton.

Multiple upcoming states are Obama territory and she will likely be unable to get victories out of those. She will not be able to claim it was because of Caucus goers. She will have no real excuse to stay in the race and give the republicans more time on their GE run.

[stop the bleeding]

9. Good work

:beer:

[malik flavors]

10. Most of the states after Penn. are Obama states as well. After Penn, she'll loose the nomination.

She'll go on a loosing streak all the way up to the convention practically.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

13. Indiana, Kentucky, WV, PR

[SKKY]

26. Kentucky, although it could swing either way...

...seems to be leaning towards HRC. Being from Louisville, my family and friends tell me that Obama is likely to win in Louisville and Lexington but won't carry the outlying counties. Again, we're a long ways away, but I would pencil in Kentucky for HRC, and see what come of it.

[loveangelc]

48. Indiana may go Obama actually, the last poll had him up 15%

[GalleryGod]

14. The Books the Big Girl & Slick Willie fear...

Carl's Contribution...


Big Dawg's Latest conquest........

The former Mrs. Edward Bronfman,Jr....Lisa!

[olkaz]

42. Look man...

I don't like the Clintons either (supported Edwards), but when you start trotting out Rush Limbaugh-speak "Slick Willie", you're going too far.

As much as you may not like them, they are Democrats and deserve more respect than that.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. Good Post

[Major Hogwash]

15. Thanks Mr. Dumass.

Good work.

[phrigndumass]

16. bump

:popcorn:

[Cali_Democrat]

17. Clinton majored in miracles, not math. n/t.

[Debi]

19. No, that' Huckabee - Clinton has endorsed McCain n/t

[phrigndumass]

20. She'll need to walk on water to win, then. n/t

[phrigndumass]

22. More math ...

Clinton’s state wins: (states over 55%: 5)
Arkansas – 70%
New York – 58%
Rhode Island – 58%
Massachusetts – 57%
Oklahoma – 57%
New Jersey – 54%
Ohio – 54%
Tennessee – 54%
California – 52%
Nevada – 51%
Texas – 51%

Obama’s state wins: (states over 55%: 21)
Idaho – 80%
Hawaii – 76%
Alaska – 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska – 68%
Washington – 68%
Colorado – 67%
Georgia – 66%
Minnesota – 66%
Illinois – 65%
Virginia – 64%
Louisiana – 62%
North Dakota – 62%
Maine – 60%
Maryland – 60%
Vermont – 59%
Wyoming – 59%
Wisconsin – 58%
Utah – 57%
Alabama – 56%
South Carolina – 55%
Delaware – 53%
Connecticut – 51%

[kid a]

23. Where is MO?

[phrigndumass]

24. MO win was below 50%

... 49% Obama, 48% Clinton

[kid a]

25. gotcha!

[Quixote1818]

28. When you put it that way, it's clearly a complete blow out. nt

[SoCalDem]

43. Here's a great Obama map someone made

[jlpohio69]

27. No matter how you add the numbers....

neither candidate will reach the golden number! Obama will go in leading, but it will be up to the supers to settle this. Obama will make the case that he has the lead, and Clinton will make the case that she wins the big states needed for the GE. It's gonna be a nail-biter!!!

[Quixote1818]

29. No it's not

Obama will go in leading by 100 to 200 delegates and their will be very strong pressure for the Super-delegates to stick with Obama. If they don't go with Obama, there will be a riot.

Unless Hillary can pull out big wins in NC, OR and a couple more states this is Obama's by a mile. It's a blow out.

[phrigndumass]

30. Yes, it really is over for HRC

The only way for her to win is to change the rules and tell everyone Obama is the antichrist.

She knows that, and that's what she's trying to do.

[KittyWampus]

32. The "Big States" are already a lock for Democrats. And Clintons have ignored/insulted purple states

since the 90's with their 17 state-strategy.

[Cha]

44. Obama can win the big states too..as

he wasn't that far behind hilary with her fear cards falling outta her pantsuit pockets.

[Moh96]

31. love your post k/r

[phrigndumass]

33. Thanks!

:hi:

[chill_wind]

35. Nothing like the cold hard numbers. Thank you for these, Mr. Dumass. Kick! n/t

[grantcart]

38. very nice

[thewiseguy]

39. Your post is gold. Thanks alot.

For Hillary this is not about winning, it is all about blowouts. I think talking about Florida and Michigan at this stage is premature.

Lets see how Pennsylvania votes. If its close there then this is over.

[DrFunkenstein]

40. Michigan and Florida Should Be Seated, But No Influence on Outcome

They should be given delegates exactly proportional to the final outcome so they can attend the convention without being rewarded for jumping the other states and forcing the contests to nearly be pushed in 2007.

[quantass]

45. Great facts to know ... thanks... nt