folks, I think it's done been decided

[frogcycle]

To all the Obama fans: congratulations, you are going to have a nominee.

For those of us who never thought Obama was all that great a candidate - well, we're stuck with him and have to make the best of it. Let's see if we can actually start to get along with all those obamanuts.

The numbers make her chances a wildly long shot, requiring multiple alignments of planets. And
I think Hillary over the past few days has been showing the strain to the point of cracking. I don't think she'd survive the Bataan Death March to the convention, not with any credibility intact. Rather than stealing pledged delegates, she'd be more likely to have hers jumping ship.

I'm sorry to say it, but:

Time to say good night, Gracie.

[bigtree]

1. he picks up 2 more delegates and you fold? pathetic.

[Quixote1818]

5. He/She realizes things haven't changed after Ohio and Texas

Obama is going to win the states he is projected to win and Hillary is going to win the few states she is projected to win. In the end Obama takes the nomination.

[hueyshort]

52. You keep saying that over and over . . . desperately

[frogcycle]

7. give me a break

Wyoming had nothing to do with my comment

[KittyWampus]

11. A majority of Super Delegates will NOT go to Clinton at the Convention. The Clintons have

insulted and ignored red state Demcrats and blue state Democrats.

The DNC under Clinton's crony Terry McAuliffe also ignored and insulted red and purple states.

[Zachstar]

16. Attacking fellow Clinton Supporters? Is that your method for winning come November?

You are the one who is acting pathetic here.

[frogcycle]

18. thanks for your support but

I am a supporter of neither. Funny how people assume they know you and attack you based on that assumption. Hell, I could be a Baluchistani supporting Ru Paul for all that clown knows.

I made my observation as a neutral observer. When Biden quit I vowed to get a Progressive into Hastert's seat. I worked for John Laesch, sent money to Edwards, and when he bowed out became a spectator w/respect to the primaries. I went ahead and voted for Biden in the Illinois primary anyway. And I voted for HRC's delegates just to be contrary, since Obama was a lock anyway. When Laesch lost to Foster in the primaries, I went out and gathered up all the 4ft x 5 ft signs I had posted around western Dupage Cty and stacked them in my garage. Wasn't much time to do much for Foster but cast a vote, but I did that, and met the local party chairwoman and precinct head outside the polling place. I'll be getting involved somehow with them. At least go to meetings.

And Foster kicked the Hastert/McCain surrogate's bloviating bovine behind today.

Here's to you, Joe Biden. And say goodnight, Gracie.

[TahitiNut]

Wow. That's totally symptomatic of a personality cult, not a primary.

Sick. :puke:

[cali]

40. Forget Wyoming- at least mostly

Obama picked up MORE delegates this week than hilly despite her "big wins". He picked up more delegates than she did in TX. She won 5 more than he on Mini-Tuesday. He got 9 SD endorsements over the past week and the 2 in WY, for a net gain over her of 6 delegates. On Tuesday he'll add to his lead, and I think you'll see more SDs coming out for him. Hell, we know the new Rep from Illinois will be backing him. She's in trouble. And her temporary momentum is dead.

[Coexist]

2. thank you.

[Quixote1818]

3. I am 100% sure Obama is going to win this. The Media is too but they want the ratings

Many Clinton supporters haven't figured this out yet.

[frogcycle]

9. just to be clear

I am not/was not a Clinton supporter. After Joe quit, I went to Edwards; after he quit, I've been an observer waiting to see who survived. I think the several flaps and unfortunate occurrences over the past several days indicate that she's burned out. Like a marathon runner 100 yds behind the leader - with a couple of miles to go, you got a shot. Unless you develop a stitch in your side and a cramp in your leg. Then you say, ok, not this time. And you pull up, take a bow to the crowd, and say goodnight.

I don't know that she knows it, but I think she's got a cramp in her head.

[femmedem]

50. Love your cramp metaphor.

I used to run long distance and I've had a few of those cramps myself. And yes, I agree that the marathon campaign has exhausted her and she's not her best self right now.

And I commend you for taking a long hard look at the math. I was also an Edwards supporter, so I know how cruel that math can be. But in the interests of us all coming together, can that be the last time you use the word Obamanut? Please?

[frogcycle]

53. ok, for you I'll do that

look at my distinction between Obama Supporters and (that word you don't like) downthread though

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4977178&mesg_id=4985940

Would Obamanauts be ok? On the surface it would be a play on Argonauts, or Astronauts, people going "where no (wo)man has gone before." I would keep my alternative interpretation of the near-homonym to myself :)

just kiddin. The term is officially retired.

[femmedem]

54. Thanks! Although I have to admit Obamanauts is pretty darn clever.

And I do realize that in your OP you were also trying to lay out some common ground between you and Clinton's supporters who are still campaigning for her.

Edit to add: Just looked downthread at your distinction. Understood.

[joshcryer]

17. Nah, I have. I knew she was done in the middle of Feb. No one wanted to listen.

Even if she plays it as politically as possible, she won't win. Though she may have the popular vote, she still won't win. The system is set to maintain the status quo, that is, males leading the country.

[krawhitham]

4. I think they will steal it from him

and try to make him the VP to make him happy.


The math is 100% in his favor, but I just have a gut feeling it will be taken away with SD

[krkaufman]

43. It's really difficult to understand their behavior if that's *not* the goal. n/t

[phrigndumass]

6. It was decided after they split Texas

Hillary's plans now are to change the rules and make Obama the antichrist, and even then she'll need 54% of everything left. Stick a fork in it.

[NDambi]

26. Nawww..its so soft, you don't need a fork, use a spoon or even a straw..Hills done..done..done

[seriousstan]

8. Goodnight Gracie

[cbayer]

10. 'Let's see if we can actually start to get along with all those obamanuts."

Well that's a good start.

[krkaufman]

44. Like Obama, be the bigger person. n/t

[dailykoff]

12. Great punchline!

:thumbsup:

[frogcycle]

13. thanx

I thought about "know when to fold 'em" too... but that seemed to hit the right chord

[frogcycle]

14. what prompted this epiphany

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4976825&mesg_id=4977020

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4969272&mesg_id=4970156

just the last couple of straws

[grantcart]

28. Which makes me think a lot. Why would they say so many stupid things/

They are obviously very intelligent people.

To me it comes down with getting out of touch with the real world. It can and will happen to anyone. All the attention, everyone

single person you meet wanting to hang on to your every word and have their picture taken with you. Making $ 100,000 for a speech.

Not even driving and the secret service all of the time.

Which brings me back to Senator Obama. I think it is significant that he did not move his family to Washington. Michelle seems

to keep a totally outside opinion to keep him honest. And his comment that he had to run now because he has not yet been sucked

into it. Maybe this is a good sign for our future President.

just a thought.

[leftrightwingnut]

15. It's still too close.

Clinton needs to net only 50 or so delegates to have a shot at the nomination at the convention. If Obama's lead is less than 100 pledged delegates, she could reasonably persuade the super delegates to throw the nomination to her.

My guess is that if things continue along current trends, she will be lucky to net 25 pledged delegates.

Even so, she still won't drop out because she has a reasonable shot at persuading pledged delegates to switch. That tactic would be rather rancorous, but I don't think she will care.

Then there are Florida and Michigan. Unless there is a redo, Clinton could pick up enough to put her solidly in super delegate decision land.

As much as some would like her to, Clinton will not go away. I expect increasingly ugly fighting until the lights go out at the convention. She will, of course, insist on getting the nomination with Obama as Veep, regardless of what the final pledged delegate count is. I think the final firewall for her is the Veep slot. And she will use the threat of throwing the nomination to herself as the means to get it.

[Yurovsky]

34. If she steals the nomination in a smoke-filled back room...

there will be rioting on a level not seen in our lifetime. Obama WILL come into Denver with more popular votes and more pledged delegates. His lead will probably be at least 100, possibly more. Not a landslide, but at least a 5% lead, which is more than most of the Presidential winners can brag about since 1980.

If Hillary wants the VP slot, she needs to mind her fucking manners right now, and cut out the racist, anti-muslim bullshit NOW. If I were Senator Obama, I'd tell her to kiss my ass. She's already gone too far in trying to destroy Obama's good name. Her crimes are not forgiveable, IMHO.

Put a REAL progressive on the ticket with Senator Obama. You want a woman? How about Barbara Boxer? Hispanic? How about Gov. Richardson or LA Mayor Villaraigosa? A white male? Dennis Kucinich.

Obama has choices. Hillary shouldn't be his only option, and VP choices are usually overrated WRT what they can do for you.

[azmouse]

19. Obama. Try him. You'll like him.

He'll be a good President.

[istopforcookies]

20. Why?

Senator Barack Obama fuels hatred against women, lesbians, gay men, bisexuals, and transgendered.

Go Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton Go!

[bhikkhu]

22. Relax. 90% of the hatred is on the other side.

And the other side is small and shrinking, and hasn't got a hope in the GE.

[Seeker30]

27. Obama's side is shrinking, which is why Hillary will be awarded the nomination

[PassingFair]

32. Then it will HAVE to be "AWARDED" to her.

She can't get there by votes...

[Seeker30]

37. Either way it will be awarded to one of them

Neither of them will reach 2025 delagates.

[bhikkhu]

42. Do you have any data or numbers?

Don't take this as snark, but there is so much rumor and wishful thinking about. It serves neither candidate to rely upon hearsay on such important trends.

[azmouse]

33. I'm sure you have something to back that up...

Or do you just like to spread lies and slander? :eyes:

[cooolandrew]

21. Thank you. Sincerely all I have ever done is defend my candidate. I think most Obama suppoters had

had no ill will to HRC supporters, whatsoever. Folks were passionate for HRC and could never fault anyone for that. We are just enthused about someone that seems to motivate a lot of people that I feel can only help the party no matter how Barack is as a potential president folks are paying attentinon our job now is to keep their attention. I am all for some peace love and unity.

Group hug forlks.

:grouphug:

[David Zephyr]

23. Another DU'er who actually can add. Hats off to your respect for numbers.

Whether you support Obama or not, I give you a lot of credit for facing the numbers.

I am perplexed at those clinging to every thread of hope that somehow the math can change. Hillary can only be the nominee if she can convince enough super delegates to ignore the staggering difference in popular votes (over 600,000), to ignore the fact that he's won twice as many states as she has, and to ignore the fact that he will have more honestly won pledged delegates than she has.

The super delegates are not going to go against those three stark facts and give her the nomination.

Her moving the goal post and dragging this out not only helps McCain, but it also keeps Mark Penn and her paid staffers on the gravy train.

And so, as you point out and which is obvious to more and more Americans of all stripes, her campaign becomes more and more desperate and cartoonish in its actions.

Bill Clinton's legacy is being forever degraded. 30 more days and even those who still want to harbor any good feelings for him will have turned hostile toward him and his wife.

[Spider Jerusalem]

Bill Clinton never had much of a legacy to begin with, to be honest.

His legacy? Welfare reform, NAFTA, shifting the Democratic Party to the economic right with the neoliberal 'third way'. Not much there for progressives to admire. He couldn't get the most progressive parts of his domestic agenda through a Democratic Congress when he had one. He was generally ineffective, and hamstrung by scandal. His 'legacy' is built on memories of economic performance during the 1990's, and the fact that his administration delivered a balanced budget for the first time in decades.

Part of that 'legacy'...the economy of the '90's that he so often gets credit for? Based on the tech bubble, the result of dramatic overinvestment in developing and maturing technologies. That bubble inevitably burst, and the overgrown tech sector of the economy consolidated, as was inevitable--that's what happened in the late 1920's, too; only then, the market boom was fuelled by overinvestment in the then-relatively-new technologies of automobiles, aviation, radio, refrigeration, etc, and the only reason the consequences were less severe is because of the overall growth of the economy relative to the sectors where there was overinvestment and the safeguards put into the system following the 1929 crash.

And the decimation of several industries that formerly emplyed hundreds of thousands of Americans is testament to the long-term effects of Clinton's economic policies; in the South alone, the textile industry (once a major employer in many small towns) has lost seven hundred thousand jobs over the past decade and a half, as production has moved to Mexico or China.

Popularity alone doesn't constitute a legacy, I'm afraid.

[TahitiNut]

31. She's gone "scorched earth" on the party.

She's actively (and deliberately) assisting the GOP at this point, particularly by proclaiming McCain more qualified than Obama. She'll be a STAR in the GOP campaign ads. Joe Lieberman, move over - ya got a partner.

[grantcart]

24. Good night Gracie.

And you will be joining us, most of us who picked Obama 2nd or even 3rd. Now the more I read about him the better I like him.

Thank you for your thoughtful post. Its not easy to disengage after you become so invested.

[frogcycle]

36. I disengaged when Edwards quit

still not re-engaged. Just reading the tealeaves and making an observation as a relatively unbiased observer.

[NDambi]

25. A sane, sensible, rational individual that understands simple math..good for you..

[frogcycle]

41. the math has been there for a while

My observation was prompted more by the chaos of her campaign and some of her utterances. As I said, the numbers make it a very long shot, requiring unnatural acts. But soldiering on and attempting those acts is her right. My observation was more toward her observation of "I'm just getting started" the other day - I see it as a plaint of desperation, rather than a confident assertion. I think the wheels are coming off, organizationally and perhaps emotionally, and that long shot is not something she could pull off. I made a remark upthread about a marathoner just realizing they are out of gas and not going to catch the leader. They say maybe another time, another place, but for this particular race, pull up, take a bow, and say goodnight.

I think her problem is she knows there will never be another time or place. She has had her sights on being the first woman POTUS for a long time, and when she does cash it in she will be admitting it will never happen for her. And just a few months ago it looked like it was in the bag. She needs to take a break, get some rest, and then throw herself into work in the Senate. Maybe even get the Speakership, if she doesn't completely piss off everyone between now and the convention.

[NDambi]

49. I agree wholeheartedly with your post...

[1awake]

29. must be kinda like hoping for a chocolate

sundae with all the fixin's, and being handed a little plastic cup of pudding. Yea, I support Obama, but I can relate to all those people who had their hopes set on another candidate. In any case, welcome aboard.


LK

[frogcycle]

35. I never had my heart set on HRC

she was #7 on my list when there were eight.

[1awake]

39. yes I know, but what I said still applies regardless .

Sometimes we (me) need to take off our own rose colored glasses so we can see how things appear to others. Hence, if I look past my own thoughts and beliefs about Obama, it is pretty easy to see and understand how others must feel losing a chance to have their candidate still up there and having to settle for what they see as a pale comparison to their own.


LK

[Emit]

30. Perhaps you can start by not calling Obama's supporters 'obamanuts'.

[frogcycle]

38. I have no problem getting along with Obama supporters

It's the obamanuts I have to work on.

[Emit]

47. How shall we distinguish between the two?

:shrug:

[frogcycle]

51. to me it's pretty much behavioral

the ones who behave like teenagers fawning over a rock star or voting for American Idol and dismiss and/or insult anyone who does not do the same are the obamanuts. People who actually comprehend what the election is about, what it means to the survival of our constitutional form of government, and believe Obama is the best answer at this point in history and attempt to make that case, rather than just gushing "he's so dreeeeamy" and "hope will solve everything" are fine with me.

[Emit]

56. I can relate. It is hard for me to distinguish between the Hillary supporters

who dismiss and/or insult anyone who does not agree with them from the more rational HRC supporters. They are few and far between. :hi:

[frogcycle]

57. yeah the vast majority of people

who fit my description of not-nuts never supported either of these - they were Dodd or Biden supporters, and there were only a handful. Now they're on the sidelines like me.

[Emit]

59. Obama was my fourth choice

I went from Kucinich to Edwards (neither were viable in my caucus, despite my best efforts to GOTV for them) to leaning toward Clinton to Obama. I liked Biden's message, though. One of my neighbors works for a union and had the responsibility of driving Biden around town when he came to campaign. I got some inside details and heard that Biden cuts to the chase and doesn't mince words. My neighbor was surprised that he used terms like PNAC and spoke so frankly on the state of affairs with our country.

[frogcycle]

60. Yes, I liked him originally

from what I saw in the Thomas and Bork confirmation hearings; then his encyclopedic knowledge and effectiveness in foreign affairs, particularly Bosnia but then also mideast.

But I was blown away when I learned more about him, and how much a progressive "man of the people" he is. THEN I went to Iowa to work on his campaign and got to meet him and was FURTHER blown away by his incredible personal appeal. I mean, he is just likeable as hell. And FUNNY.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=404x3272

[krkaufman]

45. Ok, how about Obama/Biden? n/t

:)

p.s. Joe's skipped endorsing anyone, right?

[frogcycle]

46. HA! read what I just posted

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4981681&mesg_id=4982084

[cooolandrew]

48. I'd say we can unite I don't feel Obama supporters ever had anything agains HRCsupporters thmeselves

:grouphug:

[frogcycle]

55. and I agree.

a small subset need to get over themselves and stop gloating at every opportunity, though.
This is not a sports contest, or American Idol. Nobody "wins" unless we salvage the country. I remain to be convinced that the best person for the job has been selected by this pathetically flawed process. In my opinion it would have been neither of these two, but BHO was my #6 and HRC my #7 back when there were 8 to choose from.

There's some old joke about a dog chasing cars, something about not knowing what to do with it if he catches it. I have trepidations as we venture forth into this new era. I think it just may BE a new era. I am truly pumped by the success here in Il 14 yesterday. If Obama's charisma can help get rid of that logjam in the Senate, then people like Leahy, Biden, etc. can start really fixing things.

THAT is the prize of all prizes, and THAT is what we need to be rooting for. Obama may be the means to that end, and if so, I'll take it. Whatever his "experience" level or lack thereof does not really mean jack shit. The only - ONLY - thing that can call for someone making a snap decison at 3 am with no more warning than a phone call is incoming ICBMs. That overriding spectre of the cold war that many of us grew up with is chilling. Quick Mr(s). President, say yes and we'll destroy the planet! Say no and only our half of it will be destroyed! But that is not really the issue now. Nothing is THAT urgent. Shit, bush kept reading a kids book when the planes hit. He is no good role model of course, but there is NO immediate decision that the CinC could/would/should have made in the first ten minutes, prior to talking to advisors, that would have changed a damned thing.

That is the facts, HRC knows it, and trying to play that card is one of the things that made me decide she truly had taken her eye off the ball. It seems it is about winning to her, not about doing the right thing. Pissed me off.

Anyway, if everyone can stop the pissing contests about parsing sentences and evaluating raised eyebrows or perceived slights and think calmly and clearly about the simple fact that our form of government has been under siege for decades, and the war is almost over (and lost) and that this is our last stand, maybe we actually CAN come together. Aside from being annoyed at rudeness, which I get over in a second, I have been deeply troubled by the shallowness and lack of comprehension - by lots of camps - of what is really at stake. Expressions like "it is so-and-so's turn" and shit like that just make my blood boil.

Joe said it well. He said something like "if Jesus Christ were to come sit down at this table and tell me 'Joe, candidate a (or b or c) can do a better job of it than you' I'd drop out gladly on the spot"

That is the true patriotic spirit we need. My OP was prompted not by the change in delegate count from Wy, as someone assumed, but by concluding that spirit is lacking in the HRC team. I just have to cross my fingers it is there in the other one.

[Swamp Rat]

58. nite nite

k&r

[Tresalisa]

61. I'm a supporter of whomever is our nominee,

and I just wanted to give your post a :kick:

To some here, (note, some, not the vast majority of posters on either side) the primaries have been like fans at a professional football game, the whole 'your candidate sux' 'we're gonna kick your butt' and 'w00t' stuff, still understandable in the give and take on blogs and forums among folks who are passionate about their candidate, but your post reminds us that we should all be in this together to defeat John McCain and take over the Whitehouse!

:hi: