Newsweek poll: O 46%/Mc 45%, HRC 48%/Mc 46%

[tgnyc]

http://pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

Tighter than a tick.

[BootinUp]

1. Very tight. These things change all the time though, what is important

is to note that Obama was beaten up over experience both on the economy and National Security.

[VolcanoJen]

2. If we're really applying significance to polls taken eight months before the election...

... how come Giuliani and Clinton didn't run away with the nominations?

[tgnyc]

7. I agree. Yet I could have sworn that I had just spent the last month reading posts

extolling Obama's performing better than Clinton in GE matchups. Now that the shoe's on the other foot, it's nothing but "oh these polls are meaningless!" Very telling, the psyche of the Obama supporter.

[VolcanoJen]

8. I'm an Obama supporter, and I'm not interested in any polls...

... taken eight months before an election. Now, and a year ago. I didn't changed my position, even when Obama started winning states left and right.

[tgnyc]

16. You're an uncommon DU Obama fan, then. For at least a month I've read

nothing but how he's more electable than her, based on polls just like this. As long as we all can agree that these polls don't tell us who is more electable, I think the discussion going forward will be more constructive.

[VolcanoJen]

19. I am absolutely on board with that.

:thumbsup:

[Yukari Yakumo]

29. Or why isn't Kerry in the Oval Office? {nt}

uguu

[Ravy]

3. I don't think it is actually that tight.

As divided as the Obama and Clinton camps are now, I would guess some voted for McCain when their current choice's opponent was in the race.

A telling stat would be how many of the same people voted for McCain on each question.

[LisaL]

4. These polls are totally useless. They are jumping all around.

[FormerDittoHead]

5. Exactly. i thought New Hampshire would have taught us their value.

The opinion of the people getting polled about this question run about a mile wide and one inch thick.

[Exilednight]

6. National percentages do not equate out ot electorals. When you look at state by state breakdown....

Obama has the stronger edge over McCain.

[mmonk]

9. Yes, and constantly in flux.

Whoever wins, it will sort it's way out in the general election.

[Metta]

10. I put not stock in what this hard right magazine says.

Do you really think they're honest in releasing all their sample information? Anyone who's taken a basic statistics course knows that what's behind the numbers is the real story.

[tgnyc]

11. Newsweek is a "hard right" magazine?

[Metta]

15. As far as I'm concerned.

:hi:

[truedelphi]

20. Thanks for your insight Metta. We agree.

As someone who studied the Newsweek issue that hit the stands days before the Nov 2004 election, it was impossible to see this rag as anything but a RW slanted piece of drivel.

Kerry was portrayed as being in obeyance to his rich wife - they even took an innocuous photo of the two Kerrys at a ball game, and labelled it to the effect that Teresa Heinz was explaining the game to John.

[OzarkDem]

12. Clinton has more electoral votes and she's ahead

that's what matters in the GE - the race we need to focus on.

Obama has peaked, people want experience.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

13. It's Amazing That In The End Of It All, These Polls Might Actually Come Into Play As To Who Wins.

If Hillary can continue winning the big states, close the PV gap, and keep national polling on her side, she has a huge chance of winning.

[Joe the Revelator]

14. Hillary has hurt Obama by giving her endorsement to McCain.

She loves the party.

[avrdream]

24. Lame again, Wolsh.

Back to page one with this.

[npincus]

17. first poll I've seen HRC do better than BO against Grandpa

[truedelphi]

21. Pls read Metta and my take on this (Slightly above) n/t

[Hepburn]

18. I used to think that polls were pretty reliable....

...however:

I know so many people who rely on cell phones and have no land lines of any nature that a poll that relies only on those who have land lines is going to be off. And, I do not think it is only the younger voters who only have cell phones. My 67 year old next door neighbor only has a cell phone.

So...I expect the polls to be skewed because often those who only have cell phones are not included.

[Spider Jerusalem]

22. Margin of error? +/-3%?

Statictically tied for both then.

[autorank]

23. The polls are now a tool of political manipulation... sorry to say.

They're not making any sense.

This is from Newsweek, owned by the Washington Post, apologist for the War in Iraq, FISA, etc.

I see our political dialog under near total control by a corporate and compliant media.

19% approval - 77% disapproval - the ARG Poll - that represents the truth but becomes an outlier
as the rest show 30% approval for Bush. This is critical. If ARG is right, then all these
Newsweek, Time etc. polls that show McCain even in the running against either candidate are total
nonsense. The two findings 18% approval Bush - a horse race for president - cannot coexist imho.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/


If this is correct, all the rest of the polls on
the presidential race (match ups) are highly suspect.

[tgnyc]

25. All right. Hold on. As a marketing research professional, I am well aware

of the challenges of modern polling. But the truth is that most of the professionally-done polls we read do usually depict, within a few points, the actual sentiment of the voters at the time they are taken. The wholesale dismissal of polling that seems to erupt around here whenever one shows anything less than Obama in a clear victory does a disservice to all of us trying to follow and understand the shifting dynamic going on within the electorate.

Now yes, it is very early to make November predictions based on polls today. But that doesn't mean the polls taken today are inaccurate in their reflection of the current zeitgeist -- which is to say that in the minds of America's Democratic voters, the two of them are essentially tied right now. (That was my only point in the origiinal post.) Does anyone dispute that? If so, on what basis (aside from "polls suck")?

[4_Legs_Good]

26. And only eight months to go!

I love polls and wake up to check them out first thing every morning (yes, I'm that pathetic), but in 8 months anything could happen.

David

[high density]

27. These polls are useless. Why do people keep posting them here?

It is March 9. The election is November 4. A poll on March 9 does not predict the outcome of an election on November 4. Heck, pollsters are lucky if they're right on November 3.

[tgnyc]

28. They give a sense of the task ahead of the candidates. That makes them

interesting to people enthralled by politics.