Will Obama lose the GE if he lost Florida?

[DerekJ]

What in those images below that you don't understand?





Arkansas: Clinton +11, Obama -20
Colorado: C -6, O +9
Florida: C +9, O -2
Hawaii: C +4, O +30
Idaho: C -36, O -13
Iowa: C -5, O +9
Michigan: C even, O +1
Minnesota: C +4, O +7
Missouri: C -4, O -6
Montana: C -20, O -8
Nebraska: C -27, O -3 (and splitting the EVs of the state)
Nevada: C -8, O +5
New Hampshire: C -8, O +2
New Jersey: C +5, O even
New Mexico: C even, O +7
North Carolina: C -8, O -2
North Dakota: C -19, O +4
Ohio: C +10, O +10
Oklahoma: C -8, O -23
Oregon: C -5, O +8
Pennsylvania: C +1, O -5
South Carolina: C -6, O -3
South Dakota: C -12, O -4
Tennessee: C even, O -16
Texas: C -7, O -1
Utah: C -38, O -11
Virginia: C -10, O even
Washington" C -2, O +14
West Virginia: C +5, O -18
Wisconsin: C +4, O +11
Wyoming: C -33, O -19


http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/

[Coexist]

1. because the pundits insist it is important.

during the Kerry cycle, they knew Florida was lost, and they still managed to figure out that Kerry could win.

[hueyshort]

31. he will lose becaue the republicans who jammed our

caucuses to get him elected, will then vote for McCain.
Along with the democrats he has alienated with his web smear campaign.

[Coexist]

33. in your opinion.

the republicans I know truly like Obama and really hate McCain.

[skipos]

2. There maps that show the margins of victory are a lot better

Obama outperforms Hillary in a large majority of the states.

[goldcanyonaz]

3. Love how they toss Michigan and Nevada to Obama, but not to Clinton.

[tyne]

6. By 'they"

you mean voters. I love that too.

[goldcanyonaz]

10. Oh please, at least I'm being objective. You should try it sometime.

There is no reason to these 2 states shouldn't have been included in the Clinton column.

Even in a do over in Michigan they are tied at 41 all. I don't know who will take the state if they do a re-vote, but you assume it will be Obama.

[DerekJ]

7. Toss?!

As in Survey USA randomly coloring the map?

[MadBadger]

8. Toss? They did polls for every state a few days ago and Obama won those and she lost.

[goldcanyonaz]

12. The most recent poll in Michigan has them tied up at 41.

[MadBadger]

13. I'm talking about GE polls. SUSA did GE polls for every single state.

These polls show that just because Hillary may win a state, doesnt mean she is more likely to win it in the primary. See NH where she is favored to lose right now, while he is favored to win.

[DerekJ]

15. He still wins against McCain there!! That's the point. N/T

[City Lights]

23. You said Arizona was "Hillary Country!"

What happened? :shrug:

[goldcanyonaz]

30. She won the state didn't she? She is very popular here.

You obviously don't live here, our state is not that red anymore. Notice the Dem Governor? Also, there's talk that McCain will lose his Senate seat next time around. He's represents this states past, not its future.

Obama is not popular here at all.

[City Lights]

35. I don't live in AZ anymore. I moved back to IL in 2005.

Say what you will about Obama's popularity there, I'm just pointing out that the Survey USA polling data shows McCain carrying AZ by a larger margin in a McCain-Clinton match up (54-39) than in a McCain-Obama match up (51-39).

My position on AZ hasn't changed - with McCain being the GOP nominee, it was never in play. :hi:

[City Lights]

24. Looks like a case of, to use Hillary's words, buyer's remorse in NV.

In an Obama-McCain match up, it's Obama 46, McCain 41.

In a Clinton-McCain match up, it's McCain 49, Clinton 41.

Oh dear.

[DerekJ]

25. Some HRC supporters seem to ignore the fact that

just because HRC won a state against Obama, doesn’t mean that Obama will lose that state to McCain.

[BlueManDude]

27. She'll lose Maine and NH for certain, probably PA, maybe NJ

she can not win a GE.

[Olney Blue]

4. I have NO confidence in the integrity of Florida voting in the GE.

For either DEM candidate......

[Window]

11. Ya know.

[Orangepeel]

19. Neither candidate is going to win Florida against McCain, SurveyUSA be damned.

Crist will carry McCain across the finish line. If we have to count on Florida, we've lost.

[KittyWampus]

5. Bob Graham as VP

[VolcanoJen]

20. Ooooh!

I kinda like that!

But after watching Clair McCaskill on CNN this morning, I'm leaning toward the Senator from Missouri.... another general election swing-state. Plus, she is AWESOME.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. Bill Clinton won the 1992 GE without FL.

[Thrill]

14. This is BS. McCain will not run this strong. People continue to give that moron too much credit

Wait until his shit is called to the carpet

[DerekJ]

16. I agree, Obama didn’t even campaign in a lot of those states including Florida. N/T

[tyne]

17. Neither will Clinton

because they're not polling those without landlines.

[Mooney]

21. I cannot for the life of me understand why people are so terrified of candidate McCain

His own party loathes him, and the total lack of enthusiasm about him even among his supporters is palpable. He will be easy to crush, provided we don't let him frame the debate and try to make the whole thing about jihadism. He's got nothing else.

[RazBerryBeret]

18. The most interesting part of this campaign...

Is that Obama is breaking all the rules.
that's why the polling is off, pundits are relying on the old school politics.
They're having trouble keeping up!

[Barack_America]

22. B-but, it's worth 20 small states!

It's BIG...and it's filled with old rich people from the Northeast.

Shouldn't their votes count 10-times more than votes from those hicks in the Midwest and South?

[Vinca]

26. The chance of Florida going blue is slim to none.

Besides being a Republican stronghold, it's the epicenter of election fraud. Neither candidate should put Florida in their column for the general election. If they happen to win it, consider it a bonus (and a miracle).

[OzarkDem]

28. Yes, same w/ Ohio, PA , MI and CA

He's far behind Clinton on electoral votes and that's what counts in the GE.

[DerekJ]

32. Just because she performs better in those states, doesn't mean Obama will not win them.

It is not Obama Vs Clinton, It’s Obama Vs McCain , and Hillary Vs. McCain

[Lucinda]

29. The argument being made isnt who will win or lose which states

It's who deserves the nomination if it's deadlocked.

[BenDavid]

34. chart is way the hell off:

obama will lose ohio and thus mccain wins.....

hrc will win washington state......
hrc will win oregon

very simple take the states kerry won in 2004 and add florida and ohio and west virginia and arkansas and there you have the presidency.....

[slick8790]

36. Not really...

He'll pick up CO, NV, VA, and IA. That's a win. She loses them all, and is in a fight to win OH and FL. She's the much weaker GE candidate.

[DerekJ]

37. Again with the speculations!!

Comparing Obama’s run to Kerry’s run is a superficial analogy.

[DerekJ]

38. K & R for Hillary supporters who still insists Obama will lose to McCain

[yourguide]

39. oh snap!

xoxoxxo