show me a state obama can win in the general election that hillary can't

[unblock]

seriously, just because obama won hawaii, do we really think that hawaii would vote for mccain over hillary if it came to that???

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4987016&mesg_id=4987016

[TayTay]

1. Colorado

and Virginia. Hawaii, btw, was briefly 'in play' in 2004. The demographics are changing there and it would be wise to not automatically consider it in anyone's corner permanently. Taking anything for granted is unwise this year.

[rockymountaindem]

2. Colorado

I know too many people who *loathe* Hillary Clinton (for stupid reasons, of course) but who I think will give Obama a chance. I also think that putting Clinton on the ticket will spur the religious right types to live here to get out and vote in a year when they're likely to be uninspired by McCain.

[Suzie57]

3. What state can Hillary win that Obama can't?

[maddiejoan]

8. Florida, Ohio New jersey and Arkansas

[skipos]

13. What do you think of the SUSA head to head results from Ohio? nt

[maddiejoan]

20. I think polls are meaningless this early

[MadBadger]

30. If you think they are meaningless, than wouldnt you agree that Obama will probably win NJ?

A consistent blue state?

[maddiejoan]

33. Because I know New Jersey

and McCain is moderate enough for them

[MadBadger]

37. I know Jersey too and McCain may be moderate enough, but Obama will still carry this blue state.

[SOS]

18. Ohio?

No Democrat has achieved 50% in Ohio since 1964. Before that was FDR in 1942.
Not likely for either Clinton or Obama v. McCain.

We could easily lose PA too. 2004 margin was <2%.
The end.

[maddiejoan]

19. Clinton will

and she'll take Pennsylvania as well

[SOS]

24. We have our predictions

It will be interesting to see which prevails.

I hope you're right, but I just can't see it happening.

[Kber]

55. I dispute NJ

[maddiejoan]

56. okay

I took a shot ;)

[unblock]

11. see my other thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4987016&mesg_id=4987016

[cali]

4. Virginia.

[Not the Only One]

26. Ditto

Virginia is custom-made for Obama. Perfect mix of educated whites, young voters, and African Americans. It's not like Ohio at all.

[TAWS]

5. Colorodo, Minnesota, Washington, Nebraska.....the list goes on

[ruggerson]

7. Nebraska?

lol

[TAWS]

10. Nebraska is not winner take all, he will win half the EVs

[skipos]

6. What do you think of the number of states that Obama outperforms Hillary

vs the states that Hillary outperforms Obama in those huge state by state SUSA polls that were released a few days ago?

[unblock]

16. see my other thread. my point is that the whole argument is silly

just because one democrat bests another democrat in a particular state has very little to do with whether that state would go republican depending on who the nominee winds up being.

mccain didn't win wyoming, but come on, we're not taking wyoming in the general election even if mccain is caught in bed with a dead male goat.

[skipos]

38. Uh, you really misunderstood me

Those SUSA polls were head to head with McCain. What do you think about them? Did you add up how many states Hillary outperformed Obama against McCain?

[unblock]

45. you must have seen a different poll than i did. i saw a difference of 4 electoral votes

notwithstanding that polls don't measure turnout and in any event november is too far away to predict that narrowly.

with the backdrop of the fascist shrub years and credit crunch and what by then will be a clearcut recession, november will be, above all, a referendum on the shrub years and the eventual democratic nominee will be the beneficiary, whichever it is.

november will NOT turn on who wins the nomination. barring a miracle for the republicans, democrats will win the white house. more of a question perhaps is, who has coattails. i'm not the sort to take anything for granted, and i'll work hard to make sure we win in november. but the backdrop hasn't been better for democrats since forever.

[rateyes]

9. Georgia. Mississippi. Virginia. Alabama. Louisiana.

North Carolina. South Carolina, et al.

[MadBadger]

29. Obama wont win MS, AL for sure

[rateyes]

34. You discount, IMO, the energy that Obama will bring

in getting young people and African-Americans to the polls...and, the fact that John McCain is HATED by the religious right in this country.

[MadBadger]

40. And I think you overestimate how much effect African American's will have in the South

As of now, Obama is down 13 in Alabama, 14 in Mississippi, and 15 in Louisiana,

[stray cat]

41. Why not Michigan?

[MadBadger]

43. I meant MS

[dbonds]

44. Don't discount AL, I live here and people are tired of the GOP.

[bowens43]

12. HIllary will lose every red state and every purple state.

any state that would be decided by independents will be taken by McCain.

You seem to greatly underestimate the animosity felt by most Americans towards Hillary.

[movonne]

14. I think either one could win the GE ...but that only if they haven't slimed

each other to where neither one looks good...but maybe even then...I want Obama because I really think he will be best for this country..we had so much of the bushes and clintons that we really do need new blood. I can't stand the thought of 8 more years of the clintons...

[Milo_Bloom]

15. CO, VA, OH

[thevoiceofreason]

17. And I won't even go into the down-ticket folks (like Foster)

Who benefit and win with Obama as the standard bearer.

[tammywammy]

21. CO, VA

[DearAbby]

22. COLORADO

[taterguy]

23. North Carolina

It was semi-close in 2004.

People are mad as hell about NAFTA and still holding a grudge against the Clintons for the War on Tobacco which was partially an act of spite because NC was the only state Bill Clinton lost in 1992 where he invested heavily.

[MadBadger]

25. VA, CO, IA, WI,NH, NV, MI...all those are Obama states and not Hillary's according to surveyUSA

Oh and North Dakota, Washington, and Oregon

[sandnsea]

27. VA, CO, IA, MO, GA, LA,

Obama puts a number of states in play, Hillary, puts a number of states at risk.

[goldcanyonaz]

28. Obama wins all 50 states!

[featherman]

31. Here are links to two EV maps showing the difference between the two

matchups. At this early date a compilation of polls is what it is. Many many days of campaigning and events between now and November can change a lot of dynamics.
But since you asked:

Obama v. McCain - Obama wins 309-229

http://hominidviews.com/?page_id=1251

Clinton v. McCain - McCain wins 291-247

http://hominidviews.com/?page_id=1160

[featherman]

42. It shows: OR, WA, NV, NM, CO, ND, IA, WI, NH,VA as Obama wins

that Clinton loses. Clinton wins only MO and AR that Obama does not

[Vinca]

32. He has a chance of picking up any state that is extremely conservative

because of the anti-McCain sentiment. Some conservatives despise McCain almost as much as Hillary. Either they would stay home or actually vote for Barack. I think I read somewhere that Idaho is a prime example of this. Probably, by the general, they will have been pulled back into lockstep, but that's the chatter now.

[canadian_is_cold]

35. Right back at you... Show me a state Clinton can win in the general election that Obama can't n/t

[unblock]

47. i got a whole thread for that:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4987016&mesg_id=4987016

my point was that this whole argument is silly; which democrat wins in a particular state has little to do with winning that state in november. but my point seems to have been lost and i've merely succeeded in bringing out the partisans....

[Upton]

36. Polls show Wa. and Ore.

Obama leads McCain, Hillary trails.

[stray cat]

39. CO, WI, MN, MO,IA, IL, GA

[DevonRex]

46. Colorado

Folks here in Colorado don't cotton much to Hillary. We now have a democratic state house and a democratic governor. Race relations here are good. While I'm very liberal, many Colorado democrats are still on the conservative side and were very upset by all the scandals during Bill's tenure and they want to turn the page. We do have a strong Dobson contingent, but the majority of republicans here are much more open minded and see what a disaster Iraq has been. We have a huge independent vote and they don't like the war and they don't like Hillary.

[mtnsnake]

48. Is La La Land a state?

Or is it just an illusion like Obama?

[DevonRex]

49. Montana too. NT

[Arkana]

50. Virginia, Colorado, and I don't think she'd carry Minnesota either.

Also I'd give him a decent shot at Texas and South Carolina.

[Gore1FL]

51. there are a bunch here

compare and contrast.

Interestingly this shows a mmCcain-Obama tie for NJ, but they gave it to McCain. Obama's numbers are much higher than Clinton;s in a current electoral map configuration. More McCain states are in play as well.

http://www.surveyusa.com/

[woolldog]

52. This issue is discussed in depth

and objectively in this article. Everyone should read it no matter which candidate you support:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/6/212016/8597

[4_Legs_Good]

53. Kansas perhaps

An earlier SUSA poll had Obama down one point against McCain in Kansas while Clinton was consierably further down.

I'd love to take Kansas and a couple of the other Midwestern states.

To me the converse is really the question. If Califonria and New York are really in jepoardy for any Democratic candidate then we're in big trouble. I don't get her "I win the big states we have to win" argument. I prefer the "I win the states we normally don't win, but really should" argument.

David

[stillcool]

54. Pick one....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

States that Obama has won...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/...
Alabama
Alaska
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Minnesota
Nevada
North Dakota
South Carolina
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Virgin Islands
Washington
Wisconsin
Wyoming
+Democrats abroad

states that were tied
New Hampshire
Missouri
*Texas *add to win column!!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Delegate Count (2,025 Needed to Win)
Obama-1588
Clinton-1465

[theredpen]

57. I posted some data here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4992323&mesg_id=4992323

Others have added to it.

[CTLawGuy]

58. Colorado

North Dakota, Kansas, South Carolina, Virginia, Nebraska (at least a split of EVs), Nevada, Iowa.