Question: Is everybody assuming that HRC will sweep Pennsylvania

[Road Scholar]

and Obama will not even make a decent showing?
The past record shows that for most of these "HRC" states, Obama made a very close second place when he was given a couple of weeks to get his message to the majority of the people.
It just looks to me that Obama picks up more pledged delegates in these quote:"insignificant" states like Wyoming and Mississippi, than he loses in states like Texas. I don't think Pennsylvania will hurt Obama as much as some of the smaller states helped him.
Will Pennsylvania make very much difference?
Just wondering.

[BL611]

1. Not at all

I think you're right, even in states that are demographically pro Hillary, when Obama has the time to campaign and get his message out he can be very competitive.

[LulaMay]

2. I assume nothing....because she keeps winning in the face of media onslaught saying it's over ...

a bias rarely seen before,

I WONDER WHY

She will win PA

[LulaMay]

5. But she will sweep it.

[Spider Jerusalem]

6. Keeps winning?

Huh? You mean those two wins last Tuesday, and a 'win' in Texas that netted more delegates for OBAMA? She's won...three of the last fifteen contests. She doesn't keep winning, she keeps LOSING. The only reason the media aren't saying it's over is because she is who she is; if the tables were turned Obama would have been written off by now.

On edit: Sorry, with Wyoming yesterday that's three of the last SIXTEEN.

[msallied]

14. LOL... if anything, the media has been spinning in her favor for the last week.

[John Q. Citizen]

18. She keeps winning? Did you miss the contest yesterday? She lost by 20%

[LulaMay]

34. She wasn't expected to WY...she will win PA.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

21. Keeps winning?

She won two states, and the Texas primary, while Obama won 14 contests. Where is the media bias exactly?

[stop the bleeding]

3. Chuck Todd said that she will be lucky to net 8 Delegates out of the deal

and he has been extremely accurate so far.

[LulaMay]

11. well, it must be true! Nobody would have the nerve to predict such a detailed outcome weeks ahead!

He surely is unbiased.

and, it isn't really the point at this juncture.

If you don't believe party leaders are shaking in their shoes and finally discussing that she has won the crucial states, you are kidding yourself.

[thunder rising]

19. I think more are discussing Foster and Obama's coattails.

[stop the bleeding]

20. Let's flip your statement around on ya! shall we?

If you don't believe party leaders are shaking in their shoes and finally discussing that he has won the Delegate count, you are kidding yourself.

Now I guess you showed me.

The point of my post was that PA is not a lock and whoever wins will not win by much without really anything to show for it. And no one knows how the electorate will vote in November. Hell HRC won OH but based on projections and polls Obama wins OH in a GE against McLame, so the crucial state argument does have it's holes just like the Delegate argument.

So in summary I was not pointing to a winner, I was only saying this thing is gonna be close no matter how you slice it, but thanks for the unbiased snarky you're kidding yourself response. :banghead:

I have had several reasonable discussions with a many of a HRC supporter without this taste being left in my mouth.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

23. Even based on current polls she will only net 21 delegates over Obama in PA

And in every state so far, Obama has narrowed the lead. He has 6 more weeks to do just that in Pennsylvania.

[Inuca]

28. He is among the most level headed

and objective talking heads out here, I like him. And his math has indeed been very good. I liked what he said about FL and MI a couple of days ago, namely that a redo will most likely result in results within the 55-45 margin either way, which in terms of delegates is practically equivalent to splitting them 50-50 (an option still being considered, I think). It may not be very democratic nor the most PC, but it ends up being a colossal waste of money. Mind you, I am not saying that some form of redo should not happen, all I am saying that when I think of all the better uses for all the money spent campaigning (and I am not only talking about FL and MI) I am getting even sicker with the whole damn thing.

[sandnsea]

4. With 6 weeks, he could easily win

Very easily. And it isn't going to be enough to put Hillary ahead, no matter what.

[557188]

7. I wasn't aware Ohio was close

Must be some new weird math where a double digit loss in "close".

And cue the cult members rushing to talk about how far Obama was down and how he "made up ground!"

[dansolo]

8. I predict Hillary won't gain any ground the rest of the way

If she stays in for all of the remaining primaries, I think that Obama's lead will only increase. I think that he will end up at around 150 pledged delegates ahead of Clinton (not including what happens in MI and FL)

[Road Scholar]

16. It just looks like there's no way in hell that she can make up a

140 or 150 delegate deficit. It looks like anything else would be pure bullshit, realistically speaking.

[lapfog_1]

9. PA is similar to Ohio.

plus, it's a closed primary... for whatever that's worth.

The NAFTA thing has been exposed now as nothing more than pure meddling by the Canadian government, so I don't believe that NAFTA is going to hurt Obama as much.

Momentum will not be factor as there is a good bit of time between the Ohio and PA primary, plus, Texas was not a "win" for Clinton, plus she will likely lose every contest between now and then (except Guam).

Obama will have time to campaign there, and, has been the case in every state so far, Obama starts out in a big whole and makes up ground. Still, it may not be enough to over take Clinton.

Chalk it up as 58-42 Clinton at the outside. maybe as little as 53 to 47 Clinton.

Not enough to make a difference. And easily made up for by Obama in North Carolina.

[Barack_America]

15. Eastern PA is nothing like Ohio.

And Western PA may be like Ohio, but they despise them.

Barack will do well here. He has enough time to make this another Iowa. He can essentially leave the cities to the grassroots and spend his efforts wooing the middle of the state.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

25. If she wins by even one point, I'm sure we'll be hearing about her MO again

and how the tide is turning, and how she's going to tie it all up in Guam. :eyes:

[Avalux]

27. No it isn't. In Western PA, the demographic has changed a great deal.

It's no more the land of the blue collar steel workers; Pittsburgh has gone through tremendous growth over the past 20 years. Obama will need to concentrate on the central and northern parts of PA where the smaller towns are hurting because industry has gone. If he can pick up Murtha's endorsement (Johnstown), it would be huge. My parents are in central PA and from what I hear, people there like Obama. It's encouraging. Eastern PA will go to Obama; he will pick up a lot of delegates there.

Don't forget this - PA is a closed primary, so there won't be any funny business with Republicans voting for Hillary to sway the race.

I think Obama can win my home state.

[lapfog_1]

29. That would be amazing...

but the document leaked from Obama's campaign that called the races pretty much since Super Tuesday has PA as Hillary. The document has been wrong only once (Maine for Obama not Clinton).

However, if Obama can nail it to a tie or small win, that will mean he will enter the convention UP 200 pledged delegates. The SDs cannot overturn that (they would have to split something like 80 / 20 to do it).

[Avalux]

32. Thanks for that info.

I would love for him to win it though - would shut a lot of people up. ;-)

[AZBlue]

10. Bah ha ha ha!

:spray:

[JVS]

12. No. There's no way she is going to get every PA delegate

That's what a sweep is.

[Barack_America]

17. My CD is the most delegate-rich district.

And she will get absolutely slaughtered here. It could not have been better tailor-made for a decisive Obama victory. I kid you not. I'm looking at a map of the various wards and I cannot find a single weakness.

[DesertFlower]

13. obama does well when he has time to campaign.

as far as the big states little states. hillary claims she won the big states and that's more important. what does that say to the people who live in little states?

[BumRushDaShow]

22. But she didn't win the big states of

Illinois
Virginia
Georgia
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Missouri
Maryland

(all states that had 70 or more delegates to give out)

And she came up short in Texas for delegates.

[DesertFlower]

24. of course.

it seems she thinks new york, california, texas, ohio, etc. are more important. i don't understand this. :think:

[Inuca]

31. If they do not have AT LEAST 100 delegates

they do not count. Read the memo.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

26. Put it this way: If she wins every single delegate in PA, she still won't catch up to Obama

The best she can realistically hope for is about 55%-45%, which will net her about 15 delegates. That's less than 10% of Obama's current lead.

[bowens43]

30. No, I'm assuming Obama is going to win Pa.

[MissWaverly]

33. I predict Obama wins in Philly and Pittsburgh

Hill might win Harrisburg and rural vote, can't see her winning in Western PA, though, I don't believe she would appeal to them with her "elitist" approach.