80 Superdelegates Waiting Until Convention

[tekisui]

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's trio of victories over Sen. Barack Obama last week appears to have convinced a sizable number of uncommitted Democratic superdelegates to wait until the end of the primaries and caucuses before picking a candidate, according to a survey by The Washington Post.

Many of the 80 uncommitted superdelegates who were contacted over the past several days said they are reluctant to override the clear will of voters. But if Clinton (N.Y.) and Obama (Ill.) are still seen as relatively close in the pledged, or elected, delegate count in June, many said, they will feel free to decide for themselves which of the candidates would make a stronger nominee to run against Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the fall.

"You're going to see a lot of delegates remaining uncommitted," said Rep. Mike Doyle (Pa.), who has not endorsed either candidate. "There's a sense that this is going to Denver not resolved."

Obama's victory in yesterday's Wyoming caucuses gave him an additional seven delegates, bringing his total to 1,578. Clinton won five delegates, bringing her total to 1,468, according to the Associated Press. Obama had 61 percent of the votes to Clinton's 38 percent.

At the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August, there will be 796 superdelegates -- members of Congress, governors, mayors, and state and national party leaders who have automatic seats -- and more than 300 are still uncommitted.

To win the nomination, Obama or Clinton will need a total of 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates. That is, unless Michigan's and Florida's delegations, now barred because the states violated party primary rules, end up being seated at the convention. Then the winning number would be higher, depending on how many delegates the two states are awarded.

Pat Waak, who chairs the Colorado Democratic Party, expressed the view of many uncommitted superdelegates who hope the remaining primaries and caucuses will produce an obvious winner. "My hope is that there's a clear lead among pledged delegates and the popular vote before we get to the convention, so that the automatic delegates can reflect what's happening nationally," she said. "I'm just very hopeful that it's not up to us."

more at link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/08/AR2008030802664.html?hpid=topnews

So take 80 out as players to endorse. Out of the 346+/-, 80 will stay mum. That gives us 266 possible endorsements before the Convention. Let us have 'em!

[tekisui]

1. It looks like those 80 will break for the leader. 266 in play.

[youknowmenotdlc]

2. Is it possible that the delegates simply split

along the same basic lines that the electorate has?

Not so much as a function of reflecting their representative districts but simply as individuals.

In other words if the SD split at the same rate as they currently are split then Obama still wins, the only possibility for a Hillary win is for the SDs to group together and vote in blocks specifically designed to put one candidate over the top.

[bluestateguy]

3. What is the point of letting everything stew between June 7 and the convention?

I could see waiting unitl the voting is done on June 7, but why let the stalemate fester until the convention?