Reality Check: North Carolina Will Essentially Erase Pennsylvania

[DrFunkenstein]

PA has 158 delegates at stake. NC has 115. It is unlikely that Clinton will win be any significant margin in PA. However, there is a good chance that Obama will easily take NC. However, even if it becomes close, Clinton still cannot close the deal without devaluing the caucus states and/or stealing the election through some sort of backroom dealings.

In fact, she could pretty much win every state left by 60%...and win big ole PA with 66% of the vote...and still lose to Obama.

There is nothing that Clinton can achieve except something close enough to a tie to instigate a civil war meltdown at the convention. No matter how she tries to game the system, we only end up losing.

Will she continue to burn the village to save herself?

Whatever happens in PA, it will be offset by NC...and she basically needs to have a blowout in EVERY SINGLE STATE to come even close.

[Botany]

1. PA is not a done deal for Hillary

It is a closed Primary ... unlike Texas and Ohio no cross over votes.

[flor de jasmim]

2. Exactly - there is plenty of time.

[DrFunkenstein]

4. Even a Best Case Scenario Doesn't Work Out For Her

Exit stage right.

[Botany]

15. Real Democrats by in large reject Hillary.

She is part and parcel of status quo. The HMOs, insurance companies,
defense firms, and drug companies are not givine her truck loads of $
to change the way things have been done.

Obama just needs to point that out.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Known for two weeks now.

Everyone knows it.

Everything else is just kabuki.

[melody]

5. Everything is kabuki -- even all this n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. I call your raise and....agree!

Undeniable.

[melody]

8. Very nice metaphor/trope, though. High-five n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. Rhetoric-R-Us

:toast:

[book_worm]

7. PA will be closer than a lot of people think

for one thing there is going to be six solid weeks of campaigining just in that one state and Obama will be ready for the "Kitchen sink" and will throw it back including a look on her many past comments in support of NAFTA and her campaigns role in NAFTAGATE. I think they will essentially split the delegates in PA--or if Hillary wins the popular vote it will be by a very narrow margin and perhaps Obama will actually win more delegates because of his showings in Philly and their suburbs and in Pittsburgh.

[DrFunkenstein]

9. My Thoughts Exactly

The expectations game is not in her favor, because it is a desperate make-or-break lunge for a blow-out.

[quantass]

10. NC will only serve to amplify the beating after a close race in PA

Give the man the nomination already

[Inuca]

11. Unfortunately it may not matter

They know that they cannot win the delegate race, so all they are trying to do on that front is keep it relatively close. And beyond that the real games start, playing on perceptions, big states vs. small states, "essential states", "we will accept BO as VP", he is not ready but I am, etc., etc. The Rendell interview this morning on MTP was quite illuminating. Subtlety is not his strong point, so some of the statements he made where quite mind-boggling.

[DrFunkenstein]

13. That Is The Worst Aspect of "Clintonian"

Making us question what the definition of "is" is.

[Inuca]

16. Perfectly put, Dr. n/t

[dysfunctional press]

14. the ultimate goal of the dlc has always been to destroy the democratic party.

(they've never gotten over goldwater...)

[GreenInNC]

17. The wild card in NC

The wild card here is the unaffliatted voters. They are allowed to vote in the primary and they currently make up 21% of the registrants here in NC. We have six counties where they are the second "party" in those counties.

[Yael]

18. PA has 187 to NC'c 115. PA pledged are 157 to NC's 91

The higher numbers include supers, not just pledged.

[DrFunkenstein]

19. Blame Slate...I Used Their Delegate Calculator

Thanks for the clarification, although I wouldn't consider supers in the mix for the sake of argument.

[Yael]

23. I don't count them either.

Almost all of PA's declared SDs are Hillary and most of NC were Edwards who went back to undeclared.

If our SDs overrule the voters of this state, there will be riots in the streets. A month ago I wouldn't have said that, but tensions are starting to run rather high here.

[krkaufman]

20. Reality Check: You fail to realize that North Carolina ...

... along with Mississippi, doesn't count. Pennsylvania counts!

</sarcasm>

[Lucinda]

21. Reality check: Obama only leads in the latest NC poll by a few percent with the MOE figured in

NC is VERY competative.

[David Zephyr]

22. Excellent observation. The media has already taken the Clintons' cue about PA, ignoring Mississippi

Your point is a solid one. Thanks for making it.