Clinton leads by 11 in PA. Obama only getting 27% female, 29% white support.

[jackson_dem]

It is ARG so take it with a grain of salt...

He does lead 89-7 with blacks so that is a bright spot for him but it is hard to win when you are getting beaten so badly among the two largest groups of voters. He doesn't need to win the female or white vote. He just needs to post a decent percentage among them (assuming he retains his level of black support, which he should since he has had it since South Carolina).

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/03/09/arg_poll_clinton_holds_big_lead_in_pennsylvania.html

A new American Research Group poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama, 52% to 41%.

Key findings: Obama leads among men 59% to 38% and Clinton leads among women 63% to 27%. Clinton leads among white voters 63% to 29% and Obama leads among African American voters 89% to 7%. African Americans account for 18% of likely Democratic primary voters. Clinton leads 47% to 45% among likely primary voters under 50 and she leads 58% to 37% among likely primary voters 50 and older.

[Radical Activist]

1. No wonder he lost Wyoming by so much.

oh...

[jackson_dem]

5. He has done very well with this demographic in some states

Anyone who reads polls would know this but they would also know he has struggled in some other states. Ohio is one of the latter and Pennsylvania is similar to Ohio in many ways and borders it.

[MadBadger]

14. A 60-40 split in the white vote would amount to a virtual tie here.

[jackson_dem]

16. Yup and that is very doable

They both have 7 weeks to campaign there. The candidate who runs the best campaign will win. It won't be about money or anything else since they will have ample opportunity to get their message out numerous times in Pennsylvania.

P.S. It is refreshing to have a factual, civil, honest discussion about this. :toast: Some are not capable of this.

[MadBadger]

28. I'm always capable, even if I call her HRC or Hillary, and I call her supporters "HRC supporters"

and you may refer to him at St. Obama or as some form of Obam_______ :P

[jackson_dem]

31. Hehe

To be fair I do call myself an Edwardian. I don't use Obamite as a slur. The Obamanation thing is playful, although corny lol!

[MadBadger]

34. Yea. I stopped using Hillbot a long time ago.

It just doenst help anything on DU.

I find myself mad at her much more than her supporters. It just seems like her comments are a little over the top. The lifetime of experience thing bothered me, because she everybody has a lifetime of experience. the Commander in Chief threshold thing bothered me to because again she's saying that McCain def does and she does too, but Obama doesnt. I personally dont see how she has crossed the threshold, and i also dont see how McCain has. Personally I dont think anybody has unless your name is Mr. President or General blah blah blah.

Those two statements will be on McCain ads if Obama is the nominee, and they will hurt.

[HughMoran]

82. So this is relevant to the upcoming PA vote? Doh!

You have serious problems.

[loveangelc]

2. how much white support does he have in indiana? do you know?

you must. you know everything.

[jackson_dem]

4. A lot

Pre 3/4 he led by 15 there so he must lead with whites there since Indiana is 89-91% white.

His white support is very inconsistent. It is very high in some states, like Idaho and North Dakota, and very low in others like Ohio and Alabama. I don't know why this is so. There is no common thread in the states where he does poorly. If he could somehow become consistent among this demographic it would be all over.

[MadBadger]

6. Where did you see he led by 15? I always thought of Indiana as a Clinton state

[jackson_dem]

8. Someone mentioned it and I checked it on the wikipedia state polling page

It was before 3/4 and after Wisconsin so it was taken when Obama was at his highest point thus far. I bet it is a dead heat now. The polling for Indiana, or any May state, won't matter until Pennsylvania anyway. The candidate who wins PA will have the momentum going into May. If Clinton loses PA she may even drop out and render May moot.

[MadBadger]

9. I checked. It had Obama up 40-25, so there were a lot of undecideds.

[jackson_dem]

13. If he wins PA he will be fine in Indiana

He has the advantage of it being a neighbor of Illinois. He has won Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin which all border Illinois, although he needed rethugs voting 75-21 for him to put him over the top in Missouri. ;)

[MadBadger]

15. Hey, you dont always have the advantage in states that neighbor your home state

See Connecticut.

If he wins PA, this thing is over.

[jackson_dem]

17. I think she did but she still blew it

Obama ran a great campaign in small states and I saw it firsthand in Delaware, which he won by about 10. Hillary was barely present here. I expect a similar thing happened in CT along with practically all the small Super Tuesday states.

I agree. 3/4 gave Hillary a stay of execution until 4/22. If she loses PA it is over. For one, the "I can win big states that matter" argument would be severely weakened if Obama wins PA. If she loses the popular vote the "big state" argument is her best one with the superdelegates.

[MadBadger]

23. Yea, and if they have a revote in Florida and Michigan, I really think Obama wins Michigan.

But I just dont really put much weight into her, "I can win the big states that matter" argument. Just because you win it in the primary, doesn mean you are more likely to win it in the general. It is all has to do with matchups with McCain. I know its still early and polling doesnt matter much, but right now Obama wins in NV and NH for example which are two states she won in. McCain leads there against her because it may pose as a better matchup for him. I think Obama would be smart to talk up WI, VA, CO,IA,MN,MO,WA,ND, etc. All these swing states, especially unconventional ones that Obama is putting in play. SurveyUSA even has Obama down 4 in South Carolina.

[jackson_dem]

29. It is weak but one she could make and get at least some delegates from

I believe the only winning superdelegate argument she could have is winning the popular vote. That offsets the pledeged delegate issue and gives sd's the "cover" to support their preference. They can claim they are supporting the popular will in either case.

[MadBadger]

32. Popular vote is crucial for them, but it doesnt help if Obama runs up the score in meaningless races

I think hes going to have a big win in MS and run up the score there. There may not be that many votes, but I see him running it up. I think it would be a lot closer if she had not made those comments in Iowa about MS. That may cause even Repukes to vote for Obama, instead of trying to create mischief.

[jackson_dem]

33. The key for him will be to have respectable showings in PA and FL and MI II

He has a 600,000 popular vote cushion (slightly larger now with Wyoming and it should increase in MS). Hillary needs to win solidly, like she did in these three states in Ohio (she gained almost 250k there) while breaking more or less even in North Carolina in order to cut into the popular vote. Even if he loses these states with 47-48% he will still win the popular vote.

[MadBadger]

35. If there is a revote, Im very confident about Michigan

I think he actually wins by over ten. Rasmussen polled Michigan after 3/4, and had it all tied at 41. I still think Obama gains wherever he campaigns, and to me, with cities like Detroit, and two massive universities, Obama will do very well there.

[Justice Is Comin]

38. Are you for real?

Michigan is a clone of Ohio. Even worse. There are legions of blue collar people there with no jobs to go to.

The NAFTA thing hadn't even blown up in his face yet for Ohio and he got his ass handed to him.

You must be on helium.

[MadBadger]

39. Rasmussen has it tied right now at 41 a piece

Michigan has two big universities that will be very favorable to Obama, and Detroit which is 80% African American. There are more black people in Michigan than their are in Ohio, and the campaign factor will put Obama over the top there.

[Justice Is Comin]

41. Believe my brother or sister

Wish, hope, pray.

I told you what's going to happen.

Do you know who the governor there supports? Do you know how popular she is? Repukes thought they were going to kick her out in the election, ha ha ha.

The free ride on the don't question me express is over. The press is all over him.

But believe away. David Kouresh would be proud of you.

[MadBadger]

42. Just because the governor supports somebody, doesnt mean that person will win

[jackson_dem]

52. Not by much

Michigan is 15% black, Ohio 12.5%. Rassmussen had it tied so he starts from a good place but I still think Hill is the favorite there for the same reason she won Ohio and is leading in Pennsylvania.

In Ohio Obama won the cities too. He lost the state in the suburbs and rural areas. Detroit won't be enough for him unless he can produce elsewhere.

[MadBadger]

53. Obama can run up the score in Detroit, and possibly East Lansing and Ann Arbor

While Cleveland is only 50% black, Detroit is 80 percent plack. And two 40,000+ student Universities does well for Obama.

[jackson_dem]

57. An extra 2.5% statewide means an extra 4.5% vote in a Dem primary

Assuming an 85-15 split he would garner an extra net 3% of the vote. That won't be enough to swing the state if he can't perform elsewhere. Maybe the universities would give him the extra vote but how does the college population in Michigan compare to Ohio? I do agree MI is a better opportunity for him than Florida, where he trails now by as much as he did on 1/29, but it is by no means a lock for him.

[MadBadger]

58. Ohio has one large university in OSU. Michigan has two large universities.

[purji]

85. 44%

of mich dems came out to vote against hillary . 44% uncommited.
I really don't think she has a shot in Mich. I do think she will take florida.

[ieoeja]

78. I think I see a common thread.

Obama has been losing working class Whites in the states most negatively affected by Reaganomics. Since the advent of Reaganomics the GOP has been pushing the line that these negative effects are the result of Blacks (and now Mexicans) taking jobs from the White working class because of Affirmative Action.

In those states which had less industry, or where the industry was at least non-union, Obama is still winning a majority of the White vote.

The odd thing about this is that Obama still does well among working class White MEN. It is the women he is losing, and they would be the beneficiaries of Affirmative Action.

I would credit misogyny for that. The White and Black working class men I know may not have a whole lot of use for one another, but the one thing they all agree upon is that they are in no hurry to get home to the wife.

That same wife is breaking for Hillary in the primary because she has spent decades listening to hubby explain his inability to keep her in the lap of luxury on Affirmative Action giving all the good jobs to the Black man.

[LordJFT]

81. i think the common thread would be the states he loses have high numbers of non-collegeducatedwhites

[MadBadger]

3. Six weeks out, these numbers are workable for him

And I dont think we have to take ARG with a grain of salt anymore.

[jackson_dem]

7. Yup. He doesn't need to win the white vote if he keeps his 89-7 margin among blacks

If he can just get up to a decent percentage he will win.

[MadBadger]

11. And I see no reason why he wont get at least 85% of the black vote

I cant think of some event that would cause him to lose their support.

[jackson_dem]

24. I agree but you never know. 6 weeks is an eternity in politics

Clinton does not need to win the black vote. If she can get 30% she takes 6 points out of Obama in the typical Democratic primary and about 5 in Pennsylvania since PA has a slightly smaller black population. If I were the Clinton campaign I would focus heavily on the black vote in Pennsylvania. Given his white numbers he will need 85-90% black support to have a shot in PA.

[MadBadger]

30. I think precedent has been set in terms of the black vote. She cant get 30%

She cant even get 20%. He will get somewhere between 83-91% of the black vote everywhere he goes.

[Cali_Democrat]

10. Wow all those racists in Washington State and Wisconsin hated Obama

:crazy:

[jackson_dem]

12. Are Ohio and Pennsylvania more racist than Obama states?

What a cop out. Do you see Hillary blaming racism for her losing the black vote 88-12 and now 89-7 in Pennsylvania? Obama has proven he can do very well with whites in several states but he does poorly in others. It isn't his color. It is his message. Which subgroup is he weakest with? Working folks. "Hope and change" is not enough for someone struggling to survive and this is why you saw Obama discover populism in Wisconsin (to be fair so did Clinton. Edwards was the only true populist among the top tier).

[Cali_Democrat]

22. Uneducated folks who vote with fear IMO

The red phone ad would work with alot of those folks IMO. I'm not blaming racism. I'm just saying alot of white folks in the rust belt vote along racial lines and "terror" lines, especially the hicks in Ohio. Just my opinion. Flame me if you want. I don't care. Alot of them just aren't as educated IMO. They need a clue and vote their interests instead of voting for fear.

[jackson_dem]

25. I think it is more about not being in a position to "gamble"

Clinton is a known quantity. Obama isn't. Since their policies are basically the same is it really surprising that folks on an economic knife's edge voted for the proven quantity? It is no coincidence Obama does best with the most economically well-off. If you are making $150,000 you can afford to take a chance on "hope and change." You will be fine regardless of what happens.

As far as working folks go both have solid pro-labor voting records.

[rodeodance]

43. STOP with the stupid term of uneducated!! It is demeaning to voters and shame on you.

[Cali_Democrat]

46. Shame on me?

Look at the demographics. Alot of folks who vote for Hillary are uneducated rust belt "working (white) folk." I think alot of them are inherently racist and that was a big reason why Obama lost their votes in the rust belt, especially in Ohio. This is my opinion so you may not agree, but alot of it is fact.

[jackson_dem]

51. Blue collar folk have been our party's base since day 1

Only a minority of them are racist. It is a cop out to blame Obama's struggles with white working folks (not to mention Latino, Asian working folk, and GLBT and Jewish ones) on racism. Do you see Hillary blaming her losing the black vote 89-7 on her being white?

[Hippo_Tron]

73. The people you are talking about are almost all Republicans now

[XemaSab]

18. If she only gets 52% in Pennsylvania her campaign is effectively over

If Obama got the remaining 48% of the votes, he would only need 47% in every remaining state plus 47% of the superdelegates to reach 2,025.

Even if he only got 41% of the vote, he'd need 48% in every remaining state plus 48% of the superdelegates to win the nomination.

If Hillary got 52% of the vote in Pennsylvania, she would need 62% of the vote plus 62% of the superdelegates.

If she won all the undecided Pennsylvania voters, and got 59% of the vote, she would need 60% of the vote plus 60% of the superdelegates to win.

Needless to say, I expect her to do poorly in Oregon, North Carolina, Montana, and South Dakota, which would only increase the margins she would need to win in the remaining states.

[jackson_dem]

27. I agree. She needs a double digit win

However if she does narrowly win Pennsylvania she can continue but would need a miracle to start winning big in the May and June states. If she loses it is over.

[quantass]

19. Yawn...Its 6-weeks out....We've seen this before...Obama will dwindle those margins over the weeks..

Nothing special here...we've seen patterns like this over and over again....as it gets closer to voting day those margins will disappear...haven't we learned this lesson already after 31-states

[jackson_dem]

21. He was in a dead heat in PA a week ago

What happened in Texas and Ohio? He lost ground at the end. What you are talking about was fueled by momentum, not some exceptional campaigning as Obamites believe. The reason he surged at first in Texas and Ohio is he won Wisconsin. He didn't have anything to give him momentum after that and he froze and then lost ground in the final week in both states. Had there been a primary on 2/28 that he won he would have won Texas and probably Ohio. After this Tuesday he will have nothing to give him momentum for Pennsylvania. It will come down to who has the best campaign.

[MadBadger]

26. Hillary said something in an interview today that Obama can hopefully exploit over the next few days

In a Newsweek interview, she brought up the fact that Pledged delegates do not technically have to go with the person they pledged to, and that this was a carefully constructed process that goes back years, and that they will follow this process. I think Obama should hold a press conference and hammer her on this. Talking about how Hillary wants to take advantage of a rule that would go against the will of the people. Play up a legal disenfranchisement argument. I think it could be a huge winner for him.

[quantass]

37. Well duh...campaigning IS how he is going to do it...

I never said momentum...you did....The reason Obama is so successufl IS his brilliant campaigning....Recall he had won 11-straight in arow and if it weren't for Hillary's last second Negative tactics for Ohio and TX she would have quite possibly lost those...
However, if you consider down, and dirty negative politics as good campaigning then Hillary is i guess a good choice for you..

Recall that the Hillary had gigantic margins in OH and TX before Obama begain campaigning...this is a consistent pattern...watch and learn....

[jackson_dem]

50. The margins steadily declined as Obama got shots of mo with his wins

Once the wins stopped coming he stalled and then actually regressed. Obamites think he inexorably gains because he is as great as they, his most zealous supporters, believe he is. Why did he lose 11 points in PA just this week? Does he suck at campaigning now or was it because momentum shifted? He gained because of momentum, not campaigning. If he were such a great campaigner why did it take him outspending the second place finisher 6:1 to win by 8 points in Iowa? He also outspent Hillary. He had a year there. If he is so, for lack of a better word, magical a campaign why didn't he win Iowa in a walk? It took late smears and regular attacks from him and his campaign to stop a late Edwards surge.

His numbers in New Hampshire moved overnight after Iowa. He then proceeded to lose in the clutch. His numbers rose everywhere after Iowa. He then stayed about the same and then gained a lot the week before Super Tuesday. Was it because he campaigned so great in 20 states, many which he barely visited or skipped? No. It was mainly because he got a surge of momentum off of his South Carolina win that he achieved by swiftboating the Clintons. He also benefitted from Edwards dropping out. In many of the states you would see Obama gain 10-15 points and Hill remain about the same. It was clear the lion's share of Edwards supporters were moving over to him. He then received shots of momentum on 2/9, 2/12, and Wisconsin on 2/19. His numbers moved each time. Unfortunately for him, there was no primary the week before Ohio and Texas and he was on his own. After his post-Wisconsin surge he stalled and then regressed.

[John Q. Citizen]

44. He made huge gains and gave back a little in OH and TX. And the Repo vote helped Hill in

TX and OH.

Rush Limbaugh reaches a lot of rightwing households.

[jackson_dem]

49. Obama won the rethug vote in both states, as he usually does

The difference was he won it by single digits instead of 75-21/70-30 like he did when rethugs were flocking to him to beat Hillary from Iowa to Wisconsin. Expect them to be back in his column by the same margins in May. Some of them, just like "independents", switched on 3/4 only to keep the race going for 7 more weeks.

[aquarius dawning]

48. I'm sure you're right. go ahead and keep yawning complacently.

[MadBadger]

20. If the percentage of black/white holds, Obama needs a 60-40 split of the white vote to tie

That is very possible I think for Obama.

[Justice Is Comin]

36. Get ready for another California.

If you don't think so, stock up on crying towels.

I love Ed Rendell.

[John Q. Citizen]

45. Hill won CA by 9%. If she does that in PA, she loses, no matter how much you love Rendell.

[jackson_dem]

54. If she does that in PA she takes about 250k out of Obama's popular vote lead with FL and MI on deck

That would cut it down to 350k with several states, including FL and MI left. She won Florida by 300,000 last time and leads by basically the same margin (16 versus 17 on 1/29) in the latest poll.

[jackson_dem]

55. If she does that she erases 40% of Obama's popular vote lead

He leads by 600k and a win by 9-10, like in Ohio, would give her a net gain of roughly 250k votes. That would cut it down to 350k with several states, including FL and MI left. She won Florida by 300,000 last time and leads by basically the same margin (16 versus 17 on 1/29) in the latest poll.

[John Q. Citizen]

79. Yes, but Obama will pick up some more in MS between now and then. And Obama is the

poll slasher. He moves all the polls his diirection when he actually gets the chance to compete.

Look at TX and OH.

I figure at this point Hill is only in it to try to damage Obama as much as possible and give November to McCain over Obama if she can.

[SoCalDem]

47. She will need that towel even if she wins..unless it's a BIG win

she's needed to run the table with 20% margins ever since Wisconsin & she's not done it..

She's just Huckabeeing around the US trying to keep the dream alive.

She'll remain close, but unless the soopers pull her squirrel out of their hats, she's already lost... Even if she "wins", she still loses..only she has to blow more money and several months doing it, until Mccain's victory

She's wanted this for a decade, and she cannot fathom losing..

[jackson_dem]

56. All she has to do is win the popular vote and the pledged delegate card is canceled out

That would put the sd's back at square one and allow them to choose who they prefer. If she loses the popular vote and the pd's it would take a miracle for her to win the superdelegates because they would not want to overturn the popular will.

[milkyway]

71. I would love to hear a super try to tell the public that although throughout this campaign, and

every other nominating campaign, we have used delegate totals to show who is leading and who has won, we are now going to use the popular vote total instead to determine who the supers should "crown" as the nominee.

Nominations in contemporary politics have always been a race for delegates, and the momentum that would lead to winning more delegates. That is understood by all. McCain celebrated on Tuesday as the presumptive nominee because he won the 1191 delegates needed for the nomination. Do you know by how much he won the overall popular vote? Neither does anyone else.

[Phillycat]

72. I heard a superdelegate interviewed on NPR.

He was a senator, from Ohio, I believe, and a superdelegate. He said quite clearly that popular vote totals would be a HUGE factor in their decision-making, along with delegate totals.

[PseudoIntellect]

40. 11% definitely not enough for her.

55-44 wouldn't get the job done in terms of delegates. NC and MS will cancel out that delegate gain, and maybe more.

[Robbins]

59. Obama

He will lose Pennsylvnia.The thing Is to try to keep It to the Ohio loss or even In single digets.
A lot of the other non Pennsylvnia sttaes he has a good shot at winning.If there are revotes In
Michigan and Florida he has a good shot at winning Michigan although Hillary will won Florida.
However Obama could be closer to her than when he didn't campagin In the first vote.

[Renew Deal]

64. That would get her around 16 delegates

And then NC would make them go away.

[Renew Deal]

60. Obama should be able to turn that around.

6 weeks is plenty of time. Reminds me of Iowa.

[rodeodance]

61. your crystal ball has a crack in it.

[JimGinPA]

62. Are You Planning Ahead For The Treatment You Might Need When Your Girl Loses?

Seriously, your fanaticism is troubling.

[rodeodance]

65. We are emphatice to BO supporters--we started a BO De-progaming fund.

[Renew Deal]

67. You should save that money for phonics and spelling classes.

:wow:

[rodeodance]

68. nah--We have big hearts--You folk will be in DIRE need of DE-programming.

[Renew Deal]

69. pot meet kettle

[rodeodance]

70. What a nasty pic to show your fellow DUer's SHAME ON YOU.

[loveangelc]

77. you seem...slow.

[Joe the Revelator]

83. I've been saying that for a LONG time now

[cali]

74. You know, you're constantly lecturing Obama supporters about

how rude they are. Let me return the favor: Telling people who support Obama, as you constantly do, that they are brainwashed is every bit as rude as what you rail against. And no offense, but please try using spell-check. Some of your posts are nigh on unreadable because you can't be bothered to click a button.

[rodeodance]

75. Goodmorn' to yah babes

[Renew Deal]

63. Speaking of crack

Time to lay off.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

66. She'll need another 9% to do any good at all.

[Alter Ego]

76. Well, a month and a half is a long time in politics.

Anything can happen.

[LordJFT]

80. Looking good! Hillary should pick up no more than 10-15 delegates and Obama will still have a 90

delegate lead or so afterwards.

[Pawel K]

84. Breaking News: Obama still in the lead, even if Hillary manages to win PA

but that little pesky fact won't stop Hillary from dragging this out as long as possible, will it?