Obama leads Clinton in the Recorded Vote in Primary and Caucus states ( TIA )

[tiptoe]

Obama leads Clinton in the Recorded Vote in Primary and Caucus states

TruthIsAll   March 9, 2008   http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimaryAndCaucusPopularVote.htm

Obama is winning primaries and caucuses by more than the recorded margin. But that’s not unexpected; it is almost always the fate of the most progressive candidate to do better in the polls than in the vote count. Obama does much better in caucuses than in primaries (see Texas). He won New Hampshire hand-counted precincts by 5.90% but lost the machine-counts by the exact same margin. He also won the final 10 NH pre-election polls by a 9% average margin and the exit poll by 3%.

Obama currently leads Clinton by 560,000 votes in 31 primary states (51.1 – 48.9%) and by 66.3 – 33.7% in 11 caucus states. If unadjusted exit poll shares are used to compute the vote count, Obama leads the primaries by 1.6 million votes (53.2 – 46.8%).

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/index.html

(Votes in millions)
 
               HRC     Obama    Margin
 
Primary States
               12.55   13.11    0.56
               48.9%   51.1%    2.2%
 
Caucus States
               .174    .339    .167
               33.7%   66.3%   32.5%
 
Primary+Caucus
               12.73   13.45    .72
               48.6%   51.4%    2.8%
 
Adjusted vote
to Exit Poll
where applic.
               11.8    13.4     1.6
               46.8%   53.2%    6.4%
 
Exit Polled
States only
               47.2%   52.8%    5.6%
 

Caucuses
* IA only reports apportioned number of delegates

                Votes (000)     Vote share  
 
Caucus        HRC     Obama     HRC    Obama
Total         162.8   317.8     33.9%  66.1%
 
AK              0.1     0.3     25.4%  74.6%
Amer Samoa      0.2     0.1     57.4%  42.6%
CO             38.6    79.3     32.7%  67.3%
IA*           0.737   0.940     43.9%  56.1%
KS              9.5    27.2     25.8%  74.2%
 
ME              1.4     2.1     40.2%  59.8%
MN             68.4   141.5     32.6%  67.4%
ND              6.9    11.6     37.4%  62.6%
NV              5.4     4.8     52.9%  47.1%
TX             18.6    23.9     43.8%  56.2%
 
WA             10.0    21.6     31.6%  68.4%
WY              3.1     4.5     40.9%  59.1%

Primaries
(Votes in thousands)

              Recorded Vote     Rec. Share       Exit Poll      Adjusted Share
 
              HRC      Obama    HRC    Obama     HRC    Obama    HRC     Obama
Votes         12.55    13.11    48.9%  51.1%     11.75  13.36
Vote share                                       46.8%  53.2%    47.2%   52.8% 
 
Abroad          7.5     15.2    33.0%  67.0%       7.5   15.2
AL            226.5    302.7    42.8%  57.2%     195.8  315.4    37.0%   59.6%
AR            207.0     78.9    72.4%  27.6%     203.5   72.9    71.2%   25.5%
AZ            202.0    168.2    54.6%  45.4%     165.8  186.9    44.8%   50.5%
CA            2290     1878     54.9%  45.1%     2068   1930     49.6%   46.3%
 
CT            164.8    179.3    47.9%  52.1%     154.9  179.7    45.0%   52.2%
DC             27.3     85.5    24.2%  75.8%      27.3   85.5
DE             40.8     51.1    44.4%  55.6%      38.5   51.1    41.9%   55.6%
FL            857.2    569.0    60.1%  39.9%     857.2  569.0
GA            328.1    700.4    31.9%  68.1%     267.4  771.4    25.5%   74.5%
 
HI              8.8     28.3    23.8%  76.2%       8.8   28.3
ID              3.7     16.9    17.8%  82.2%       3.7   16.9
IL            662      1302     33.7%  66.3%     572    1368     29.1%   69.6%
KS              9.5     27.2    25.8%  74.2%       9.5   27.2
LA            137.0    220.6    38.3%  61.7%     137.0  220.6
 
MA            511.9    704.6    42.1%  57.9%     575.4  605.8    47.3%   49.8%
MD            285.4    464.5    38.1%  61.9%     285.4  464.5
MI             na       na                        na     na
MO            395.3    405.3    49.4%  50.6%     361.1  398.7    45.1%   49.8%
NE             12.4     26.1    32.3%  67.7%      12.4   26.1
 
NH            112.3    104.8    51.7%  48.3%      78.1   84.6    36.0%   39.0%
NJ            602.6    492.2    55.0%  45.0%     514.5  571.5    47.0%   52.2%
NM             68.7     67.5    50.4%  49.6%      62.1   70.5    45.6%   51.8%
NY            1003     698      59.0%  41.0%     946    718      55.6%   42.2%
OH            1207     979      55.2%  44.8%     1115   1050     51.0%   48.0%
 
OK            228.4    130.1    63.7%  36.3%     216.9  109.0    60.5%   30.4%
RI            108.8     75.1    59.1%  40.9%     108.8   75.1
SC            141.1    295.1    32.4%  67.6%     141.1  295.1
TN            332.6    250.7    57.0%  43.0%     301.0  239.7    51.6%   41.1%
TX            1460     1359     51.8%  48.2%     1409   1381     50.0%   49.0%
 
UT             48.7     70.4    40.9%  59.1%      47.5   71.6    39.9%   60.1%
VA            347.3    623.1    35.8%  64.2%     347.3  623.1
Virgin Is       0.1      1.8     7.8%  92.2%       0.1    1.8
VT             59.6     91.7    39.4%  60.6%      59.6   91.7
WI            452.8    646.0    41.2%  58.8%     452.8  646.0

[9119495]

1. kick.

[crispini]

2. .

Miss ya TIA. :hi:

[snooper2]

3. Rec. and kick

nt

[TheDoorbellRang]

4. Yup. K&R n/t

[jgraz]

5. Obama also leads Clinton in nominations already in the bag

Obama: 1 Clinton: 0

[ingac70]

6. kick!

[aquart]

7. Damn, that race card is a great ploy.

[PBS Poll-435]

8. Wow!

Really? Well fudge!

I must think that pre-election polls and regional polls are complete bullstuff!

Why even hold elections anymore?

[Zachstar]

9. K&R

[tiptoe]

10. Updated Mar 10 at title source link. nt

[Scurrilous]

11. K & R

:thumbsup:

[DemVet]

12. The key word in the thread title is "leads," not "won"

It ain't over yet people. We have the votes and the fights on the convention floor to look forward to.

[tiptoe]

13. Mar 11 update at source link: "Barack Obama is leading in the True Vote by 1 million more than ...

...the Recorded Vote..."