Insider Advantage MS Poll: Obama 54 (+8), Clinton 37 (-3)

[MadBadger]

Last week they had Obama up 6.

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New InsiderAdvantage Survey
Obama Headed to Victory in Mississippi

Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff


March 10, 2008 — An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll conducted March 9 shows that Sen. Barack Obama is extending his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Mississippi Democratic presidential primary race.

The survey of 338 registered likely voters in the primary has been weighted for age, race, and gender. It has a margin or error of plus or minus 6%

Obama: 54%
Clinton: 37%
Undecided: 9%

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “ Last week it appeared that there was a possibility that Republicans might crossover to vote in the Democratic primary. (The state has an open primary).

“However, this fresh survey suggests that no such trend is developing. The only thing to watch on Election Day is whether Clinton can somehow stay in a comfortable zone of the 40 percent range. This turned out not to be the case in Wyoming.

“There is some possibility that turnout patterns might allow for a slightly better chance of a face-saving number for Clinton. However, virtually all of the African-American respondents have moved in Sen. Obama’s direction since last week, and this consolidation – which, as we noted last week, always occurs late in southern-state races – all but assures a solid Obama win on Tuesday.” Click here for crosstabs.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_310_271.aspx


http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/26_InsiderAdvantage_MajorityOpinion_MS_Dem_Poll_3-10-08.pdf

[jgraz]

1. Whoops -- another state that doesn't count.

[Tropics_Dude83]

2. MS doesn't count!

In the MSM's eyes but a 20-25 point win will shake them up a bit:)

[Colobo]

3. IT DOESN'T COUNT!

:)

[jgraz]

4. I'm guessing pretty soon the entire country is not gonna count.

:P

[Mooney]

5. Black people! Red state! Doesn't matter! n/t

[cali]

6. Great.

Let's hope for a huge turnout and an even bigger margin. Then he can have another blow out under his belt and add to his popular vote lead.

[stillcool]

7. Incoming!!

move some of those bodies under the bus.

[MadBadger]

8. Kick (Ignore that poll from March 6th, this is the new one).

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

9. If this holds, Hillary's % needed to tie will be 66% after Mississippi

and 69% to achieve 50%+1 of the pledged delegates. (that is, she will have to win 66% of the remaining pledged delegates to tie, and 69% to reach 50%+1 of all pledged delegates)

Assuming 20 delegates for Obama, 13 for Hillary based on the current polls of 54% to 37%.

[kennetha]

12. Bad Calculation

Remember Alabama, where OBama won by 14% and 80K votes but netted 2 delegates. That's because of gerrymandered congressional districts (first done by Democratic legislatures and then exploited by the repugnants) that are designed to dump all AA votes into as few districts as possible, both ensuring AA representation in congress but also thereby diluting AA strength across the state.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

14. Right, I was assuming proportional assignment.

But even if they are assigned 17/16, her % to tie is 66%, and 69% for 50%+1. There just aren't many delegates to swing one way or another.

[Scurrilous]

10. Looks good!

:thumbsup:

[adoraz]

11. AWESOME! now nobody is saying it will be close :)

[thewiseguy]

13. I thought some Hillary supporters were saying this will be close?!

[1776Forever]

15. Great! Keep it going! Yes we can and we are!

:kick:

[Az_lefty]

16. I'm surprised the great and gracious hillary is polling that high..

considering the way she dissed that state.