I support Obama, but I think this race is 50/50 now ...

[Alhena]

with the news on Politico that the Florida re-vote appears to be a go (with Obama apparently signing on) it is apparent that Obama will likely finish with a moderate pledged delegate lead, but, let's be honest- it won't be good if he loses Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida convincingly as he's expected to do.

If that happens, I think the superdelegates can legitimately go in either direction, and I'll have a hard time feeling cheated if they select Hillary. There is some truth to the argument that strength in those 3 states counts more than strength in states like Idaho, Wyoming and Alabama that won't possibly go Democratic this fall. I wouldn't be objective if I said otherwise.

On the other hand, I think the superdelegates can legitimately conclude that Obama is so much more likeable than Hillary that enthusiasm for his campaign is likely to spread into the fall, while enthusiasm for Hillary (such as it is) is likely to diminish. You've also got long-range considerations to consider, such as the effect on all these young voters who have flocked to the party, if their candidate is rejected by an inside party deal. The same applies to black voters who have been so loyal to the party. Might they stay home this fall? There's also the fact that Obama's coat-tails are widely viewed as being better for the Congressional races- he will bring out democratic-leaning independents, while Hillary will rally conservative Republicans to vote.

Finally, and this is important to me but may or may not be to superdelegates, Obama has run the kind of campaign that the Democratic party is supposed to be about, while Hillary has trashed him, praised John McCain and basically done every trick possible in order to win. When we're looking back in history a few decades from now, are we going to be saying "yeah, this amazingly charismatic and popular candidate came along, but we ended up giving the nomination to some ruthless campaigner in an inside party deal."

In my view, when a candidate as special as Obama comes along and inspires people and does things the right way, you give him the benefit of the doubt on electability issues.

[Lord Helmet]

1. dude you suck at being a supporter

[Alhena]

2. Tell me where I'm wrong- he's 15 down in PA and FL

that's not good.

[Cha]

How far away is PA? Have some

confidence..Obama can do it.

[John Q. Citizen]

8. Do you have a link to those poll numbers? The last I saw (yesterday) he was

11% down in PA, (up from 20%- down a couple of weeks ago)

And there is a long time until either state votes.

Also, Obama is currently winning more blue states than Hillary is, he has the popular vote in Blue states, and he is leading in delegates in blue states.

[Alhena]

11. I think one PA poll showed him 15 down another 11

either way, it's a closed primary so that favors her.

[ingac70]

17. Obama has won closed primaries. n/t

[TheDoorbellRang]

20. don't forget the 11% undecided from that poll

A little minor detail announcers often skip in their sharing. Latest poll on 3/5/08 in PA shows 52-37% in Clintons favor -- that's 89% of the people polled.

[dchill]

39. Last three Quinnipiac PA polls...

Quinnipiac 02/21 - 02/25 506 LV 49 43 Clinton +6.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 577 LV 52 36 Clinton +16.0
Quinnipiac 11/26 - 12/03 462 RV 43 15 Clinton +28.0

As you can see, what's getting closer to EVEN is Pennsylvania. Obama isn't going to lose any of the remaining primaries by much. His lead will maintain or grow. I don't think I'm too sure that you're much of an Obama supporter, BTW.

[papau]

13. I agree with you Alhena - I want to win in Nov - and red state primary wins aren't impressive

[ingac70]

19. Obama has won more blue states than Hillary. n/t

[DemBones DemBones]

21. Red states are generally won by the Republican so you're right, red

state Democratic primary wins are not significant in predicting the election.

The question people have to ask themselves is whether they want a Democrat or a Republican in the White House in January 2009.

If they want a Democrat, Clinton is the better bet.

[ingac70]

34. For us to win..

a couple of those red states are going to have to flip blue.

[TheDoorbellRang]

14. Makes no matter.

He'd have to be 20 down and stay there for Clinton to catch up. Math is not Hillary's friend.

[wileedog]

31. He lost by 10 in OH and Hillary got +9 delegates

If he loses by 15 in PA, will she get 130?

[ruggerson]

4. Yes, ve must hef no deviation from ze loyalty oath

keel her! keel her!

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Lord Helmet]

12. this coming from the camp that couldn't shoot straight

[Tarheel_Dem]

28. I know. The "concern" posts always begin with....

"I'm an Obama supporter, BUT.........blah blah blah

[Unsane]

30. Agreed. Use the Schwartz!

[rocktivity]

3. For Hillary, the magic number is 62

Hillary has to win at least 62% of the vote in ALL the remaining contests just to get close. And since MI and FL are the only states in which more Repubs turned out than Dems, they're not gimmies for her.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Alhena]

6. But that assumes the superdelegates will just follow pledged delegates

they don't have to and, to be honest, they aren't necessarily supposed to under the rules. It seems to me that their purpose is to exercise political judgment regarding electability, etc.

[rocktivity]

7. If she can't win big enough to blow Obama away even once

she won't have much of a case with the superdelegates. Also, keep in mind that the superdelegates have to re-apply for THEIR jobs in November, too!

:headbang:
rocknation

[NMMatt]

23. But you are missing the point

Obama only needs 30 percent of the undecided super delegates assuming the remaining pledged go something like 50-50, which is actually kind to Clinton if you do the numbers. Clinton needs 70 percent to go against the pledged delegate margin. Why would they do that over some very debatable "electability" crap? For every swing state Clinton claims, Obama claims about 2. For every poll Clinton leads McCain, more often than not, Obama leads by a larger margin (though it's been close lately). Finally, you do realize that they will have a serious problem with Obama supporters feeling cheated out of the election. So this electability based on the Appalachian hillbilly vote is only going to go so far. The super delegates aren't going to want to tell the African American community - you know, Obama is the first Black candidate to win the majority of votes in a Primary season, but screw him... the white person is more electable to the hicks in Ohio. The Hill-billies haven't really thought this out, have they?

[wileedog]

32. They will if they are interested

in the continued survival of the Democratic party.

Stop shoveling this shit.

[emilyg]

38. That's what I heard on CNN tonight.

[David Zephyr]

9. Interesting observations you make. I especially agree about the tones of the 2 campaigns.

Alhena, I am not attracted to the fools' gold of Florida. Terry McAuliffe put all our eggs in that basket time and again and wasted millions of dollars there only to lose and lose.

Howard Dean began his victorious 50 state approach his first year as chair and we won back the U.S. Senate by working Red States! We won Missouri! Montana! Virginia! Ohio! And we almost won Tennessee, too.

Obama has won Missouri and Virginia and either one of those two states added to John Kerry's core and we take the White House. HIllary can not win Missouri or Virginia and I am not one to put all the money and hope on the false promise of Florida again. It has a Republican governor and a Republican legislature. We are crazy to bet the farm on that state. It's too risky when our opportunities are so much more promising. Louisiana and Colorado also are tilting our way and either one of those + Kerry's and we are there, too.

Obama and Hillary both will carry California, New York, Illinois.

I may be wrong, but the Clintons campaign seems to be making so many mis-steps and misstatements that I think we may be just weeks away from the beginning of the end. She looked so great all through 2007 and now she looks angry and her message changes from day to day. I think they are in trouble and they now know it.

[Awsi Dooger]

33. Your math is way off

John Kerry managed 251 electoral votes. He needed every bit of Ohio's 20 electoral votes to put him over the top, since 270 is the magic number.

You claim Obama needs Kerry's core plus either Missouri or Virginia. Incorrect. He would need both. Missouri has 11 electoral votes and Virginia 13. Later you assert Obama could win via Kerry's states plus either Louisiana or Colorado. Wrong again. In fact, adding both would not be enough. They have 9 apiece, which would create a 269-269 tie.

The fool's gold is pretending weakness in major states doesn't matter. If you forfeit Florida and Ohio it tilts the margin for error back to the GOP, instead of where it rightfully belongs this cycle.

2008 is not a second term midterm. Our edge among independents won't threaten 2006, even if Obama is the nominee. I agree we need more states in play but it's not certain the vehicle is Obama. Hillary appears to have more demographic strength than Obama in Florida, Ohio, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

And it's hardly a certainty Obama's national polling would surpass Hillary's, in relation to McCain, once a general election plays out. Newsflash: he'll have to do a hell of a lot better than hoodwinked or bamboozled. I can think of some early debates with wobbly answers, notably when asked what he would do in the event of a terrorist attack. It was like a pathetic checklist, no threat of emotion or vengeance. I guarantee that clip is already in the can at GOP headquarters.

I like Obama but my sports background always attaches skepticism to sudden risers, people who never would have been forecast for the current level just a few years earlier. It reminds me of college football players who surge in their senior year, after being rated much lower during the bulk of their career, then suddenly become hot commodity blue chip prospects entering the draft. Much more often than not, the early evaluation is truer to reality and the player is a disappointment. Horses who win the Triple Crown are phenoms at 2, like Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed. The cutesy late blooming colts are touted then falter, fans desperate to embrace and pretend. I realize these are strange analogies but there is a foundation in truth. Give me long term excellence every time. People who don't gamble are suckered by recency far too often.

[David Zephyr]

41. I consider Ohio in our fold now. I didn't make that clear.

Ohio has had a near revolution toward the Democrats since all of the GOP's scandals and criminal corruption there. Add to that the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs and I don't see us losing Ohio. And also, I should have repeated my long held belief (which I've posted here for a long, long time) that Kerry won Ohio. I consider Ohio part of Kerry's numbers. I should have made that more clear, although I did mention we'd won Ohio's Senate seat.

But you are right, Ohio has to be part of the math and, if not, we will need to pick it up elsewhere which is also very possible.

Still, I do not believe that Florida is worth putting as much resources proportionally as McAuliffe did and which did not pay off. Florida is a big crap shoot for Democrats. We don't do well there. Hillary would have a better shot at it than Obama, in my opinion (and I support Obama), but I don't think she can beat John McCain there with a Republican governor and the State House controlled by the GOP.

[KittyWampus]

10. why the fuck would super delegates support Hillary? She's insulted/ignored Dems in so many states

now saying they don't matter or count or are too black or what the fuck ever.

Super delegate are NOT going to support Hillary at the Convention IF she makes it go that far.

[sandnsea]

15. She can't win any more delegates than she's already counting

from Florida so she isn't going to do better with a new election. I also think he can win PA if he debunks all of Hillary's so-called assets, experience, foreign policy, vetted, etc.

[woolldog]

16. Oh ye of little faith, Alhena.

I know you're trying not to get your hopes up b/c you don't want to be disappointed. But trust me when I tell you the Dem party leaders are looking for any excuse to get rid of Hillary and nominate Obama. They know they can't win with her. Obama has some powerful allies in the party. And I do believe they will find a way to get that done. ;-)

[NMMatt]

18. Why does everyone ignore the states like Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Virginia, Colorado..

Minnesota, and Oregon (since you've already decided to give Clinton upcoming elections)? You've really bought into the Clinton spin if you say that Obama has only won in Idaho and Wyoming where as Clinton wins states that "count." Fortunately most super delegates are more politically aware than the average idiot CNN pundit and have been consistently breaking for Obama since January.

[nsd]

36. Exactly right! Good post. /nt

[boppers]

22. "moderate pledged delegate lead"

..is not 50/50.

A "convincing defeat" in three states, with wins in 29 others, is not 50/50%.

She has to crush him in every state, from here on out, to even get close to 50/50.

Not just win, not just win by a few points, but win by an incredible margin...

Just to get to where she would be 50/50.

Then she *still* would have to do something to convince folks that she's worth voting for over Obama, because then they'd be at 50/50.




typo

[Egnever]

24. That should be an OP

Clear and concise.

[MagsDem]

25. There is no way he can win the GE

He can't win MI, FL, OH, or PA. And if he can't do that he cannot win the GE. John Kerry was ahead by 10% on Bush at this point. Obama is far behind him in state to state polls. We nominate Obama, we lose.

http://hominidviews.com/?p=1325

[JackORoses]

29. Obama is the Nominee and will become the President

Get used to it.

[loveangelc]

37. Please! he is leading in MI and OH against McCain in the latest polls.

He can win CO, VA, NM, NV, ND, IA which if you look at the susa results, gives him the bigger win vs hillary WITH him losing NJ, PA and FL (which i do not believe obama will lose come november, at least not PA and NJ, he may lose FL). Hillary will lose WI, MI, WA, NV, CO, VA, possibly OR in a general election. BTW a primary win does not = general election win.

[lapfog_1]

26. Do not buy the hyperbole.

There are only pledged delegates and Super Delegates. OBama will lead by 150 to 160 pledged delegates (even with a Florida re-vote).

This won't go to the convention.

Sometime, when it is mathematically impossible for Clinton to tie the pledged delegates, the senior party officials will arm twist the Supers and make the call. Clinton will have to suspend her campaign. Nobody wants this to go on any longer than absolutely required. If it goes to a floor fight, the Republicans win. The senior party officials will NOT attempt to convince Obama, who will have that 150 pledged delegate lead, to drop out after Puerto Rico.

Don't worry about things so much, this is almost over.

Not to mention, Hillary is no longer a Democrat. Even senior long time Democrats have taken notice of the "crossed the threshold" speeches.

[Levgreee]

27. the do over in Michigan would favor Obama

[AtomicKitten]

35. Aren't you the one that proposed Clinton/Obama after Texas/Ohio?

And now you're telling us that it's 50:50? Tied up even?

Riiiiiggghhhhht.

I don't know what your game is here but listen up. Barack is ahead by every measure. That's a fact that you can't manipulate as hard as you may continue to try. Please pass information back to the Mother Ship that we aren't biting on Hillary Tactic #2,559.

Barack is ahead and will not lay down. Get it? And if you are absolutely innocent of what I'm implying, then your support for Barack is weak-kneed. But just so you know and for full disclosure, I get paid to follow trends in this election cycle (and that includes the Clinton Daily Line of Manipulation and Attack), and I am confident I've got this exactly right.

[TheWraith]

40. Not a chance in hell. Frankly, I think we won't get to Pennsylvania.

The party elders want this to end. They don't want another six weeks of Clinton scorching the Earth, particularly when she looks more like she's running as a Republican. The superdelegates were talking about banding together and endorsing Obama before; I suspect those conversations are getting louder after Clinton elevated McCain over the guy who's likely to be our nominee. People like DNC officials and elected Dems value party loyalty, which Clinton has displayed none of.

[applegrove]

42. You've got some good points there.