Mississippi delegate math explained

[Jersey Devil]

The state of Mississippi has 33 total pledged delegates attached to the results of Tuesday's primary. That total does not reflect the 7 super-delegates awarded to Mississippi. Of the seven, three have pledged for Senator Obama, three have remained undecided, and one delegate is yet to be determined. Mississippi has a total of 40 delegates but only 33 are tied to the results of Tuesday's primary.

The Democrats split the pledged delegate count (33) up in a 65-35 proportion, with 65% to be awarded at the congressional district level, while 35% will be split proportionately based on the overall statewide popular vote. Hang with me now, 35% of the total pledged delegates (33) is 11. These 11 delegates are divided proportionally based on the statewide popular vote. So say Obama gets 61% of the statewide popular vote, he would get 61% of 11, which is 7. Hillary would get 4 in this scenario.

The remaining 65% of the pledged delegates are divided up by Congressional District. All districts have 5, except for MS-2 which has 7, for a total of 22. The reason MS-2 has 7, is that the Democratic Party rewards districts that are heavily Dem. The delegates are awarded proportionately within each district based on the popular vote for that district.

So with the 11 divided by the statewide popular vote, and the 22 divided by the popular vote within each Congressional district, we reach our total of 33 pledged delegates.


By Congressional District
MS-1: 5
MS-2: 7
MS-3: 5
MS-4: 5

11 delegates split proportionately based on popular vote
Total: 33

http://cottonmouthblog.blogspot.com/2008/03/mississippi-delegate-math-explained.html

[Emit]

1. Thanks. Very insightful.

It will be interesting to see how things play out.

[jazzjunkysue]

2. My head hurts.

Why does this all have to be so complicated?

[Tesha]

3. If it were simple, it might elect someone the DNC doesn't approve of! (NT)

[Jersey Devil]

4. I think what you have to keep in mind it that is is not an "election" per se

The Democratic Party sets up the way its candidates are chosen and rewards districts that have been successful for Democrats by giving them greater weight in the nomination process. This is important not only for presidential selection, but the same setup applies to choosing state, county and district candidates in the state.

Why shouldn't a town, city or district with a large number of elected Democrats have a greater say in who the candidates are that are going to appear on the top of the ticket than another town, city or district with few or no elected Democrats? I think the system makes a great deal of sense.

[mohc]

5. Slight correction

At-large and pledged PLEO delegates are apportioned separately. The 11 state-wide delegates are made of 7 at-large and 4 PLEO delegates. While .61 * 11 does get you 7 delegates (6.71), Obama would only get 6 delegates. The 7 at-large delegates would split 4-3, .61 * 7 = 4.27. The 4 PLEO delegates would split 2-2, .61 * 4 = 2.44. So in total Obama would only get an extra delegates at 61%. The percentages to watch are where 4 and 7 delegates have their splits change. 4 delegates split 3-1 above 62.5%. 7 delegates split 5-2 over 64.3%. So while Obama would only net 1 delegate at 61%, he would net 5 at 64.4%. Those few percentages can make a big deal. The next split change would not happen until 78.6%, where 5-2 would go to 6-1, but that is not a likely outcome. So the numbers to watch is if Obama can get into the mid-60s to get the extra net 4 delegates. BTW, this is exactly why Obama is winning the delegate race. He is winning by margins that are giving him extra delegates, while Clinton has mostly had margins that are not netting her many delegates.

[Jersey Devil]

6. Well thanks (I think)

LOL, now I also have a headache.

[mohc]

8. You're welcome, and sorry for the headache.

Mississippi's apportionment is actually one of the simplest. As the linked article states, there are 3 districts with 5 delegates, and 5 delegate districts will almost always split 3-2 when there are two strong candidates. The reason for this is to make it split 4-1, a candidate must get over 70% of the vote (3.5 / 5 = .7). So typically the district will just go 3-2 for whomever wins the district, winning 51-49 or 69-31 gets the exact same result: 3-2. These districts in MS will be the competitive districts, and if Clinton wants to keep the delegate count close she is going to have to win a few of these outright. The 7 delegate district has 2 extra delegates do to its larger African American population which votes heavily Democratic. If this was a closed primary, Obama would probably sweep this district 7-0, but MS has an open primary so he probably wins this 6-1 (he will need at least 78.6%, otherwise it will be 5-2).

This contest will largely come down to crossover voting. If Democratic turnout is strong and there is not much crossover voting, Obama should do very well, probably netting 13 delegates. If Democratic turnout is weak, or there is a lot of crossover voting, he may net as few as 3.

[Scurrilous]

7. Thanks for the info.

:thumbsup:

[ProgressiveEconomist]

9. theGreenpapers has this information for EVERY state and jurisdiction of the 57 groups

to be represented in Denver. See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/MS-D.phtml , substitute any other postal code for "MS" in that URL template, or go to http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/ccad.phtml for all 57 links.

BTW, the EXACT formulae for states' delegate allocation, based on past Democratic turnout in each electoral vote jurisdiction, is at http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D-Alloc.phtml .

[BumRushDaShow]

10. Great link!

Thanks!! :thumbsup:

[Jersey Devil]

11. Wow - Thank you - a keeper (nt)

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