heh, heh, Josh Marshall spells it out about caucuses and caucus delegates

[antigop]

Obama supporters take note:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/182722.php

Here's what I mean. Caucuses rarely if at all vote directly for national convention delegates (I'm going to hedge here a bit because I don't know the ins and outs of every states rules.) Generally speaking, they choose delegates to a state convention, which in turn chooses delegates to the national convention. In some states I think there are even intervening county conventions. But the key point is that unlike in primaries where the delegates really get picked on primary night, that's not what happens with caucuses. When you have a caucus in state such-and-such and they say Obama got X number of delegates, that's just an estimate. He doesn't really have them yet. What it really means is that he got X number of delegates and if they all go to the state convention and vote for Obama then he'll get the estimated number of delegates, or something very close to that number.

The point is that there's a lot of potential haggling and funny-business possible between what's actually set in stone now and what people are expecting come convention time. TPM Reader AO sent in this AP article from February which notes that back in 1984 Gary Hart actually lost delegates through the course of this sifting process.

Yep. Delegates can vote for whomever they want.

<edit to add> And it looks as if HRC will take advantage of this....

NOTE: As I have repeatedly stated, I am NOT an HRC supporter, but I am NOT a fan of caucuses. Check my previous posts. I have NEVER supported her. And since I can only briefly check-in at lunch, I will not be able to respond to this thread until possibly later this evening (if at all).

[Bicoastal]

1. Well, we can futz with the system the next time around.

But all 2008 candidates involved agreed to the system in place when they put their name on the ballot in caucus state. As long as nothing illegal happened, no do overs.

[antigop]

2. No one is asking for a do over. Sorry I have to leave. n/t

[Vinca]

3. All I know is that if Barack goes in with a majority and loses,

there will be a strong case made for a third party.

[theboss]

6. I honestly don't see how the party could survive the betrayal of black voters that would be

Black voters make up something like 20 percent of our base. To steal the nomination from the candidate they prefer by a 9 to 1 count would be like an athlete cutting off his right arm at the shoulder.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

4. Pledged delegates are like superdelegates, only with backbone.

They're not the sort of people who are going to easily change their mind. They're already very opinionated and loyal.

And if they were going to, it's more likely they'd split for Obama. Like the superdelegates.

[ProSense]

5. JM is right, but he's making it convoluted. Pledged delegates rarely change their position.

Trying to give the impression that somehow pledged delegates from a caucus or primary will shift position is a bit like betting on something that's highly improbable. If any such a thing were to happen, why this would be a good sign for Hillary is not clear?

These delegates are not going to move en masse like the superdelegates.

[Emit]

7. From our precinct caucus to our county convention, Obama picked up a delegate in our county

From Edwards' delegates and I was told from an HRC defector or two.

And you are correct about the whittling down process. I know that to be a delegate moving forward to the Ntl Convention in our state, you have to had participated pretty much from the beginning or have a real in with the party. Going from several thousand delegates statewide to 25 in our state is a journey and takes commitment and follow through -- being nominated, chosen, approved, and showing up -- whatever the process is in each state, it's not a cakewalk.

[damntexdem]

8. Last Tuesday, I was elected a delegate to my regional convention (state senate district).

It will elect delegates to the state convention, which will elect delegates to the national convention.

In 1972, I was elected a (McGovern) delegate in another state, which sent me to both regional (U.S. Congressional District) and state conventions, both of which elected delegates to the national convention.

Thus, my current Texas case is even more convoluted than the earlier case. However, the experience will likely be similar: it's not just "funny business," its also which elected delegates at a given level actually ATTEND the meeting at that level (true even though there are alternates). But we do what we can.