SurveyUSA: Clinton headed to blowout win in Pennsylvania

[geek tragedy]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c9ce82e9-4cb0-4b64-983c-509ce4fc0ee6

As an Obama supporter, I think he does EXTREMELY well for himself if he keeps the margin to low-double digits and under 20 delegates.

[scheming daemons]

1. Six weeks is an ETERNITY.....

Six weeks ago, we were having Super Tuesday.

[geek tragedy]

6. People's opinions have hardened over that time.

If he couldn't win Ohio, he has absolutely no chance of winning Pennsylvania.

The sooner Obama supporters realize this and get smart about playing the expectations game, the better.

[jenmito]

20. Even Obama plans on losing PA. Remember when a memo was accidentally sent out

(stuck in with other papers) with Obama's estimate of which states he'd win and lose? So far he predicted EVERY state correctly except Maine, which he predicted he'd lose but ended up winning. And in his scenario he ends up winning but not with enough pledged delegates to win the nomination. He'll win with SDs regardless of how he does in PA.

[geek tragedy]

30. Obama supporters can help the campaign by not

hyping his chances of winning the state.

And, to be honest, I thought the campaign's projection for PA was absurdly optimistic.
Losing by six points there is a best-case scenario.

[jenmito]

I agree...

I'M not even planning on him having a big win TODAY due to what I keep hearing is low turnout. I also think he's being overly optimistic in a 6-point loss, but maybe he knows better than we do about the population of PA right now.

[susankh4]

100. Low turnout... anywhere....

is bad for the dems. It is always bad.

And I fear this is a referendum on what is now perceived as "politics as usual."

What do you think?

[jenmito]

117. Yes, I think it's bad, and I think it's Hillary's fault.

She should either stop right now or get out.

[susankh4]

120. I disagree....

this is the fault of the party. Not Hillary. Not Barack.

Our two candidates are each in a no win situation.... and the "powers that be" seem content to sit back, and watch the train wreck. I truly cannot believe it.

But, I do believe this: rather than taking responsibility... our leadership will allow the first "woman" candidate and the first "black" candidate to take the fall.

The goal: only white guys in the white house! And they are well on their way to making sure that what we get. In 2008, and for another 100 years.

[scheming daemons]

32. That document said he expects a 52-47 loss..... I can live with that...

That would be a net gain of less than a dozen delegates for Hillary.

[geek tragedy]

48. That was overly optimistic.

They overestimated the willingness of Appalachian and Rust Belt Democrats to vote for him over Clinton.

[scheming daemons]

65. No they didn't.... they know that Philly area... which represents 40% of the

population of PA... will go 80-20 for Obama to largely offset the more sparse "Appalachian" vote.


I've lived in PA for all of my 41 years.... You're simply wrong about this.


He'll probably lose... but it will be by single digits.

[geek tragedy]

80. The white voters in the Philly area will go for Hillary.

It's a blue collar town.

And she controls the political machine there, from the top on down.

[scheming daemons]

84. We'll just have to agree to disagree... I'd venture I know this state better than you... but...

you could be right.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

73. Peggy Noonan?

:shrug:

[Bill McBlueState]

2. How do you think things might change over six weeks? n/t

[geek tragedy]

4. Obama MAY cut that lead in half. Maybe.

Winning the state? Impossible.

This is more like California or Massachusetts than it is like Texas.

Pennsylvania is a GUARANTEED win for Clinton. The only question is whether Obama can salvage a close loss and minimize the delegates Clinton picks up there.

[Dems Will Win]

The Spitzer Scandal will dredge up Monica, Paula, Gennifer, Eleanor, Lisa and Belinda

They are already playing the finger-wagging video endlessly on the TV news.

She will sink in PA, which is the Quaker State, you know. It's more conservative and traditional than NY. BEing reminded 20 times a day of Monica is going to hurt. A lot.

The race now has Monica in it, so the dynamics have shifted tremendously.

[geek tragedy]

19. That's really more wishful thinking than clear thinking.

The sooner Obama supporters realize we're playing for delegates and not a win in PA, the better for influencing the media spin.

[mtnester]

45. That was one HELL of a leap

did it hurt?

[anamandujano]

107. Glad all the Obamatrons are happy about seeing Dems smeared again and again on TV.

More proof that the MSM wants Obama to run against McCain, as if we needed any more proof.

[truebrit71]

7. Well after he wins tonight and adds another state and yet MORE delgates..

...Obama will do what he has done in every other "safe" HRC state...eat into the lead until it almost disappears..

She is toast...and the longer she stays in the race the more she harms her already tarnished reputation and hurts the Democratic party...

After tonight she needs to withdraw...

[Selatius]

3. 6 weeks is still a lot of time for Obama to come back, though.

That's the problem with snapshot polling done so far ahead of time.

[gabeana]

5. This is great

as an Obama supporter I like this number because you know he is going to close,six-weeks to go he has no where to go but up, and the opposite for hillary.

[geek tragedy]

14. As long as Obama supporters get smart and stop talking

about winning the state.

Talking about winning Ohio was STUPID.

[book_worm]

8. I remember the TX and OH polls two weeks prior to the vote and HRC led in Ohio by 18 and TX by 14

by election day in Ohio it was down to about 10 and TX she won by 3--here he has six weeks and he will gain considerable ground. I don't know if he will win it but it will not be enough of a win for her to make major gains in delegates.

[OzarkDem]

10. He won't be able to play the race card there

Obama is going to have to talk about the economy and jobs - his weak points.

[XemaSab]

17. Do you understand that this is a bigoted remark?

Do you? :shrug:

[OzarkDem]

59. This is getting tiresome

Obama supporters need to find another way to promote their candidate than simply calling every Clinton supporter a racist. Pretty lame.

[XemaSab]

105. So you don't get that what you said was bigoted?

:shrug:

[salbi]

22. Obama playing the race card????

Are you saying Obama can only win in states with large african american populations? I guess that is why he won Wyoming, all those black cowboys coming out to caucus for him. Get over the race issue, he has voters that don't care about race or gender, we just think he is the best for the country.

[OzarkDem]

63. Obama has a history

of playing the "race" card when he's campaigning in primarily AA states, like South Carolina and now Mississippi. That's his choice, you need to take it up with his campaign.

[Nedsdag]

90. Have you lost your f--king mind?

Who was the one who said his South Carolina win was on a par with Jesse Jackson's?
Who made the commercial with sleeping white children in bed with a phone ringing at 3 a.m. and only showed it in Texas, a southern state?
Who is the one making gestures about asking the opponent who's ahead in the popular vote and the delegate count and asking him to be a subordinate?

If anyone is playing the race card, it's "YOUR GIRL!"

[SeaLyons]

104. Good One

and so true!!!

:thumbsup:

[bowens43]

36. Wow. What an inceredibly asinine post.

Do you Hillary supporters get some kind of training on posting outlandish remarks?

[book_worm]

40. It's Hillary's team playing the race card and also lying about her past positive comments on NAFTA

he'll be prepared and ready to respond to her negative campaigning in PA.

[OzarkDem]

Obama's NAFTA "disinformation" was discredited

of course, it happened long after he had bashed Clinton in the news media with a baseless accusation. The Canadian government later set the record straight.

[movonne]

42. Don't be hateful...

[susankh4]

116. I agree.... the economy and jobs....

and he needs to stay away from the "race" stuff. Race issues may help him in a primary in South Carolina or Mississippi, but it will only hurt him in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana.... where many people feel that their jobs have been lost due to affirmative action. (Disclaimer: I don't feel this way, and I support Affirmative Action. Always have. But... on the ground here, it's very unpopular.)

In fact, "race" is a battle that cannot be won *anywhere* in November. Not even SC or MS. Because the RW does not care about PC-ness. And the more Mr. Obama's campaign calls out the "racists" on the other side... the stronger will be his opposition in the South.

In other words: landslide for McCain.

[OzarkDem]

9. A win is a win and the Dem candidate must win it in the GE, too

[book_worm]

46. And so far Obama has won more than twice as many contests as Hillary

right a "win is a win" except when the state doesn't matter.

[theboss]

11. There is simply no way he posts unde 40 percent

That's a pipe dream.

If she wins, it is within 8 points.

[VolcanoJen]

12. Obama knocked 10 points off a solid Clinton lead in Ohio...

... and he did it in under three weeks. If we would have had just a little more time!!!

Six weeks really is an eternity in politics.

[geek tragedy]

18. He had plenty of time. Rust belt, uneducated Democrats

aren't going to choose him over Clinton. Period.

[Robbins]

41. Pennsylvnia

He will lose the primary.many Obama supporters know this.This Is the strongest of her so called firewall.However he can work on keeping it as small as possible.If he can keep It around the Ohio
margain that Is a victory for us Obama supporters.But,let's remember this state may be going to Mccain in november.Unlike Ohio where he Is seen as strong as Hillary.Even Hillary Is In danger of losing Pennsylvnia to Mccain.As for saying Obama Isn't good on the economy he Is for doing away with the Bush tax cuts,a middle class target taz cuts,doing away with taxes for seniors who make under 50 thousand,making the wealthy pay their fair share od social security taxes.Obama may not be as anti free trade as some of us are but he didn't push NAFTA through.Hillary wants credit for what Bill Clinton did so you can't say write It off she wasn't really for NAFTA when she previously called It a sucesses.

[XemaSab]

13. 55%?

Not a blowout.

If she only gets 55% in Pennsylvania she'll need something like 63% in EVERY SINGLE OTHER STATE, plus 63% of the superdelegates to get the nomination.

She's only had over 58% in one state: Arkansas.

Them's the facts.

[geek tragedy]

16. 55-36. 9% undecided.

That projects to around a 58-41 landslide win in a huge state.

It's all about delegates and damage control there. Anyone who thinks he can beat Clinton there is deluded.

[XemaSab]

34. If she gets 58% she'll narrow the gap by 26 delegates

I'm guessing that Obama's going to add another 7 delegates to his lead tonight in Mississippi. I'm guessing he'll also pick up about 23 more for his lead coming out of North Carolina, which would more than erase any gains in Pennsylvania.

Like you said, it's all about delegates, and he's got a lead over her that will not be closed with elected delegates.

[book_worm]

51. It will not be a blowout in PA

[geek tragedy]

82. Obama will only add one delegate tonight.

MS's Congressional districts are racially gerrymandered. The result is that you have three heavily white CD's that Clinton will win narrowly, and one Af-Am CD that Obama will carry overwhelmingly.

It breaks down as:

CD1: Clinton 3-2
CD2: Obama 5-2
CD3: Clinton 3-2
CD4: Clinton 3-2

[XemaSab]

111. That sucks

but at any rate, she can't close the gap with elected delegates. It's just not possible.

[Independent-Voter]

15. Not surprising. PA, like OH, is full of low educated white folks that flock to HRC

I think Obama will cut that lead in half by then in any case.

[DemGa]

24. And how long would the inverse argument about Obama supporters last on here?

[Independent-Voter]

38. Huh? Educated voters that actually read/research their candidates are a bad thing?

[XemaSab]

49. That we're all uneducated latte liberals?

It's a possibility. ;)

[juajen]

106. You know, not every educated white person is for Obama.

In my immediate family alone, we have five undergraduate degrees, four masters degrees, and one working on her doctorate. I'm getting a little sick of this white, uneducated meme. There are thousands upon thousands supporting Hillary Clinton with advanced degrees, and there are plenty of uneducated black and white supporters of both candidates.

You must be careful, you know. I might think I am not knowledgeable enough to vote for Obama if he becomes the nominee. You Obama supporters are really good at shooting your own feet.

[BeyondGeography]

21. Dumb headline

Six weeks out and it's all set in stone...Haven't we learned a single thing yet?

[geek tragedy]

29. Yes, we learned that Appalachian and rust belt

Democrats prefer Clinton over Obama by about 2-1.

[BeyondGeography]

31. And Obama lost Ohio, which is a tougher state than PA

by ten points.

Get your head out of your ass.

[geek tragedy]

43. OH vs. PA:

PA has:

Fewer black people
More Hispanics
More white Catholics
Fewer educated people
Fewer students
More old people
No independents (closed primary)

Take the margin in Ohio and add 4-6 points on it. That's what Obama has to overcome.

Heck, if you offered me an Ohio-type result today, I'd jump for joy.

[BeyondGeography]

62. They're also better off and better educated

==But some differences between the states could shape the Pennsylvania playing field.

In Ohio, half the Democratic vote, according to state party officials, came from areas north of the Ohio Turnpike or through which the highway passed, a classic Rust Belt region of depopulated towns and declining manufacturing base.

In Pennsylvania, half the delegates to the Democratic convention will be awarded in the slice of the state that starts just north of the Lehigh Valley, includes the Philadelphia area, and extends to the south of Harrisburg. The area is more prosperous East Coast than depressed Midwest.

"In suburban Philly, you might have a Democratic electorate with higher levels of education and more financial resources, and those voters have been better for Obama than Clinton," Borick said.

Ohio also has a higher unemployment rate than Pennsylvania and seems to have suffered more in the loss of manufacturing jobs in recent years, analysts said. Anger at free-trade agreements was a major factor in the Ohio primary.

"Pennsylvania having a bigger range socioeconomically makes us different from Ohio," said Democratic political consultant Ken Smukler, who is not working in the presidential race. "I don't believe you can run an anti-NAFTA campaign in Southeast Pennsylvania and have that be a deciding factor."==

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_stories/20080309_Penn-hio__New_primary__familiar_look.html

[geek tragedy]

77. The article you linked to supports my argument.

When you get outside of Philly, Pennsylvania is a hybrid between Ohio and West Virginia. It's hardcore Clinton country.

[BeyondGeography]

87. Ohio is ranked 40th in the country in average years of education, Pennsylvania 25th

There are positives in Pa. that he didn't have in Ohio. He won't do any worse there.

[Zachstar]

109. It will be more or less like Ohio if they voted tommorow...

However after 6 weeks of Clinton Exposure with Obama landing crowd after crowd while debunking her crap...

Well I just do not see how it could be a blowout. I actually think it will be more of a VERY small win for Obama.


However she has to win BIG BIG BIG there if she decides to stay in the race after today. Afterwards she will start drifting towards Obama territory again and without a major blast of momentum the losses will start mounting again. However at that point there will be no more major firewalls to set.

[RiverStone]

39. Agree- share a little optimism!

He won VA. - he has lost of time to make up ground. Maybe by PA people will get Hillary has lready lost the delegate race anyway.

[thewiseguy]

23. Since when did you become an Obama supporter?

[geek tragedy]

26. Since this time last year.

Unlike my fellow Obama supporters on the Intertubes, I recognize that we HURT the campaign when we inflate expectations.

The goal is not to win Pennsylvania, but to minimize its impact.

[malik flavors]

25. She has to release her tax returns on the 15th. Game over after that,

[SeaLyons]

108. Dream On

The Clintons have had to share their tax returns for years.

Go Hillary!!!

[dbonds]

27. In TX it took 2 weeks to go from 20 points down to a win for Obama.

We have 6 weeks in PA.

[geek tragedy]

33. PA isn't TX. It's like Ohio, except a lot less friendly to Obama.

Clinton allies control the state Democratic party from Rendell down to the precinct chairpeople.

[scheming daemons]

44. I disagree.... Ohio doesn't have a Philadelphia that will go 80-20 for Obama with HUGE turnout...

...

I live in PA.... he'll do better than 45% in this state.

[geek tragedy]

60. Ohio had Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati.

More black people in OH than in PA.

[scheming daemons]

69. Not true.... Cleveland and Cincy *COMBINED* have less than Philly....

...and Dayton is a GOP area...

[geek tragedy]

83. What about Columbus? n/t

[scheming daemons]

89. Columbus was strong for Obama because it is a college town...

...but Ohio has more of its population spread out in rural areas.


Also... you are forgetting the main point:


REPUBLICANS COULD CROSS-OVER AND VOTE IN OHIO.... they can't in PA.

[geek tragedy]

96. Obama lost white Democrats 70-27 in OH.

70-27.

[scheming daemons]

102. According to Diebold............

...just kidding...... maybe.

[geek tragedy]

112. That was the exit poll.

On the bright side, 19 points is about as bad as it can get there.

[Zynx]

67. There's a lot of myth in this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html#polls

Toss out the Rasmussen poll that was clearly an outlier and two weeks out, Clinton had a slim lead and won the primary by 4 points, not significantly below her lead.

[high density]

28. 20 pts down... He can close that

That's his style.

[snappyturtle]

70. I agree. I think when we've seen Sen.Clinton ahead in polls earlier

she always manages to lose some of her numbers. Maybe former President Bill CLinton will wave some of his 'magic' over the state to help her acheive this. I think she'll win PA but not by a huge margin that she needs.

[writes3000]

35. Pennsylvania has a large KKK base.

I know because I went to college there.

Not saying all people from PA are with the KKK but I do think Obama has more to overcome here than in many other states.

He can close the gap but I suspect he won't win it.

[scheming daemons]

47. Closed primary and those folks are registered Republicans....

...

[writes3000]

53. I disagree. I think there are Dems there who "relate" to the KKK.

Central PA is intense.

[scheming daemons]

61. Republican registrations in central PA are three times as high as Democratic registrations...

Translation.... 3/4 of the KKK folks you are talking about CANNOT VOTE in the PA Democratic primary.

[writes3000]

66. If you assume all Dems in those sections are not KKK-friendly, you are mistaken.

I spent time there. I know people who grew up there. The racism is deeply embedded.

[scheming daemons]

74. You're right... THERE JUST AREN'T MANY DEMS THERE....

Clinton will take 80 to 90% of those Dems you are talking about..... What I am saying is that only 1/4 of the racists you are talking about are REGISTERED as Dems.... the rest are REGISTERED as Republicans.


She'll get high percentages there... but relatively low TOTAL NUMBERS.

[AlinPA]

99. I would think that there are few Democrats in the PA "T". That's the

right wing white population. Nearly every radio station has a rightwing talk radio program. I don't think they influence the Democratic voters there. (The "T" is that section of PA between Philly and Pittsburgh with the top of the "T" going along the north border)

[geek tragedy]

54. Lots of racist white Democrats. They voted for Hillary

in droves in OH.

[scheming daemons]

81. With all due respect... Please pay attention to this...

3/4 of the "racist whites" in PA are registered as Republicans.

PA has a CLOSED primary, and Republicans CANNOT CROSS OVER and vote in the Dem primary.


In Ohio... there is SAME-DAY REGISTRATION that allows Republicans to cross-over and vote in the Dem Primary.


Now listen close... I *AGREE* with you that the racist white Dems in PA will vote for Hillary..... What I'm telling you is that THEY CANNOT VOTE IN GREAT NUMBERS, BECAUSE MOST OF THEM ARE REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.


In PA, you cannot change your registration on election day.

[AlinPA]

103. This is a good point. (Your post last week had a good evaluation of PA voters).

[BzaDem]

37. How can Obama lose by 19 points now and still win this state in November?

Anyone who pays attention to the EC knows that we have to win 2 of 3: PA, FL, OH. Right now, the (sparse) evidence that we have points to McCain winning all 3 over Obama. I really hope he can reverse that.

[scheming daemons]

57. Losing to Hillary is not the same as losing to McCain....

All the Democrats that vote for Hillary OR Obama in the primary will vote for whoever the nominee is against McCain.


Yours is a flawed argument.


I like apples and pears... but HATE grapes. When choosing between apples and pears, I might pick apples. But when choosing between apples and grapes *OR* pears and grapes... I will NEVER choose grapes.


Most Hillary supporters in PA will vote for Obama in the GE over McCain.

[BzaDem]

79. I know it's not the same; it certainly isn't dispositive.

But it does carry a little bit of weight. Especially since PA is a swing state that we only won by 2 points last time. If we pick the nominee that is losing by 20 points in the primary (granted this may change), it could swing things just enough in the GE to let McCain take it.

The idea that all Hillary+Obama democrats will vote for the nominee is not true. The latest Pew poll said that 15% of democrats would vote for McCain over Obama, twice as many as would vote for McCain over Hillary.

[NJSecularist]

50. Hillary must be proud to build her base around racist whites

[mckara]

52. Even if It is a Blowout in Pennsylvania...

Clinton will be behind in delegates before the primary in Pennsylvania and AFTER the election.

She CANNOT receive enough delegates to secure the nomination!

It's time to say b'bye to Hillary!

[geek tragedy]

56. That's the spin we need! n/t

[SeaLyons]

114. Now Hear This

NEITHER one can get enough delegates......

[catgirl]

55. Your heading seems more pro Hillary, than pro Obama

And it's YOUR "blowout" heading, not Survey USA's.

[geek tragedy]

58. It's all about setting expectations properly.

Demographically, this is the most pro-Clinton state in the entire country.

[VolcanoJen]

101. I don't really know a thing about Pennsylvania...

... but Dick Polman says that compared to Ohio, Pennsylvania has a larger African-American population, a larger student population, and many more college-educated Democrats.

So, which is it, out of curiousity?

http://dickpolman.blogspot.com/2008/03/onward-they-slog.html

[geek tragedy]

110. Article for your reading:

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_stories/20080309_Penn-hio__New_primary__familiar_look.html

Pennsylvania is older and whiter than Ohio and the nation as a whole, according to the 2006 census estimate. Pennsylvanians make less money than the national average, just as Ohioans do, though Pennsylvania has more college graduates.

A little more than 15 percent of Pennsylvania's population is older than 65 - third-highest in the nation - compared with 13.3 percent of the Ohio population. That also could be in Clinton's favor, as the New York senator has received some of her strongest support from older voters.

In Ohio, older voters were 14 percent of the electorate, according to exit polls. (Clinton carried the seniors with 72 percent to 26 percent for Obama.) Just under a quarter of the likely voters in a Quinnipiac University poll in Pennsylvania last month were 65 or older.

Moreover, Pennsylvania ranks first in the nation in the percentage of its residents who were born in the state.

That's mostly because the state has fewer immigrants from abroad and from other states than most, said Gordon DeJong, a professor of sociology and demography at Pennsylvania State University.

"We don't have a lot of people who have brought their politics with them from someplace else," DeJong said. "That long-standing pattern . . . makes it inherently more conservative politically on both sides, not just Republican vs. Democrat but within parties."

The racial mix in the two states is roughly the same - 10.7 percent of Pennsylvania's population is black, compared with 12 percent in Ohio, according to the Census Bureau's 2006 estimates. Eighteen percent of Ohio voters Tuesday were black, as were 17 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats who told Quinnipiac pollsters that they were likely to vote in the primary.

Obama, who would be the first African American president, has relied on landslide margins among black voters in his winning coalitions.

In Ohio, about half the electorate last week consisted of white, non-college-educated voters, and Clinton beat Obama among that group, 71 percent to 27 percent, according to exit polls.

Another factor that looks good for Clinton: Only people who have registered as Democrats by March 24 will be eligible to vote in the party's Pennsylvania primary. Obama has run best in primaries where independents and Republicans can participate.

The Quinnipiac poll projects that 59 percent of the Democratic electorate in Pennsylvania will be female, the same percentage as in the Ohio electorate, giving Clinton a solid base on which to build.

Younger voters have been a key Obama constituency, and people younger than 45 were 44 percent of the Ohio electorate. Polls suggest about a quarter of Pennsylvania voters will be younger than 45.

Roman Catholics have been a key constituency for Clinton, and Pennsylvania has many more Catholic voters than Ohio. Up to a third of the electorate in Pennsylvania could be white Catholic voters, a group Clinton won by 31 percentage points in Ohio.

[catgirl]

124. Well there's plenty of time for Obama to compete for votes

Pittsburgh should be good for Obama. Lots of students and smart people.

[JorgeTheGood]

64. 6 more weeks of the Rezko trial ...

the Obama crowd is, as usual, cocky and arrogant considering what could potentially happen.

[mckara]

71. What Could Happen?

Obama WAS NOT involved!

[JorgeTheGood]

93. how do you (or anyone) know that he was not involved?

watch how he suddenly IS involved once he gets the nomination.

[writes3000]

72. About as cocky and confident as the Clinton supporters are that no Bill or HIllary scandals will pop

And Bill and Hillary have more history and examples of scandals around them than Obama does.

Waiting for a scandal is a silly game.

[SoonerPride]

75. 6 more weeks of the Spitzer scandal

and Ferrarro opening her racist mouth.

Sonds like a wash to me.

[JorgeTheGood]

95. wrong -- you go to

prison for one and get embarrassed for the other ... big diff ... ROTF

[papau]

68. Obama loses PA, then FL & Mich means he can't win must win states

[OzarkDem]

76. Very true, those are crucial states for the GE

any Dem candidate must win them to beat McCain.

[skipos]

98. What do you think of the number of states that Obama outperforms Hillary

against McCain in the latest SUSA polls? I assume you have looked at those, as they were pretty extensive.

[OzarkDem]

125. We had a discussion about that the other day

The SUSA polls on electoral college performance aren't all up to date, and make a lot of assumptions that could easily be proven wrong. e.g. they show Obama could win Ohio based on an old poll taken well before his loss in the Ohio primary. There are a number of states SUSA assumes either Democrat could win in the GE that are questionable.

[writes3000]

78. False spin. I understand why you need to try though. n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

86. Use your intellect for good, not evil.

:cry:

:suchawaste!:

[MadBadger]

88. Obama will win Michigan in a revote.

[writes3000]

91. Agree. n/t

[MadBadger]

85. That is the highest the lead will be.

[thevoiceofreason]

92. I like this as a good standard from a fairly reputable pollster

So, this is what we can gauge his performance by over the next 6 weeks.

[mmonk]

94. Hillary is expected to win there. That is why they keep mentioning it

as if it matters the most in the race for president without mentioning the sum total of other states or the high delegate count in NC for example.

[truebrit71]

97. ..plus if he closes the gap she can claim that she "came from behind to win it" again....

...:eyes:

[Az_lefty]

113. no she isn't...she'll have to answer for her missing tax returns before that

the Penn primary is a week after April 15th...when she fails to release her promised returns she will get pounced on.

[nlb]

115. does it matter ?

she won't win the nomination if she wins there by 50 points .

[9119495]

118. Please Obama...don't spend all of our money in PA...

It is time to go national and get ALL those states after PA. He already looks great in NC, MT, SD, IN.

Do what the Clinton campaign would do..."We never thought we could dig into the strong base of support the Clintons have in PA. Afterall, she is from a neighboring state." Then, unlike the Clintons, add "congratualations to her on this victory."

Obama may loose by 10...but it won't change a thing.

[texshelters]

119. Other Polls and results

Vs McCain Rasmussen Feb 17
Pennsylvania 2008 Presidential Election
Pennsylvania: Obama 49% McCain 39%; McCain 44% Clinton 42%

USA Today, today:
The pair stood at Clinton 45%, Obama 44% in the latest snapshot of the volatile race.

Rueters today http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2743757020080227
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads rival Barack Obama by six percentage points in Pennsylvania, down from 16 points two weeks earlier, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday.

So, it depends on whose polls you believe.

I believe the on on April 22nd myself.

Tex

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

121. check out that link's breakdown....it's not bad for O

He hasn't yet really campaigned there, and the young vote won't ignite until he's visited town. If his bread and butter was already behind him and he was down, that'd be different. This, though, shows promise.

Now, converting promise to reality isn't easy--but it's possible.

[BlueIdaho]

122. I suspect...

we are not far from "Clinton Fatigue." Six weeks is a long time for her to keep up a negative campaign against another democrat. Sooner or later her actions - her surrogates actions and the math will take their toll.

[RamboLiberal]

123. I'm from PA - I don't know that he will win but he will close the gap

It will be in single digits. The Clintons are already on the ground in PA and Hillary got 2000 in Harrisburg, Bill got 2000 in Washington, PA (south of Pittsburgh). That is not big crowds for the area even though the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was trying to say it was.

I'll be curious the crowds Obama draws when he hits the ground here.