I find it amazing how rapidly myths form, especially the vaunted 20% Texas Gap.

[Zynx]

For example, there is a myth that Barack Obama was 20 points down two weeks prior to Texas: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html#polls

There was ONE poll that had Hillary up by 16. The rest were between 8 and even being down. The median poll lead seems to have been around 5 points. She won the primary, I'm not talking about delegate allocation because polls can't account for that so don't even start, by 3-4%. Hardly shocking.

Now, it is true that in Ohio the gap did narrow noticably from three weeks out: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html#polls where Obama was behind twenty. However, he narrowed it to 6-8 points before it widened to an election loss of slightly over 10%. A decisive loss.
The trend was not his friend at the end.

Before spouting myths as fact, look into them slightly.

[thevoiceofreason]

1. As I recall, Barack was down 51-17 in Texas as of 12/1/07

[Zynx]

2. That is irrelevant.

The campaign hadn't begun at all at that point. Also, it wasn't at all what I was talking about in my OP was it?

[thevoiceofreason]

8. I agree with your 2 week theme

However, your metric is misleading as it implies that there has not been a surge in support for Obama. My post used a metric of the year 2008, which is a mere 10 weeks old.

And by the way, the campaign sure as hell had begun at that point. Hadn't Hillary already blown through about $50 million at that point?

[NeedleCast]

9. That's "Hillary Math" for you

It's really not irrelevant at all. It's quite telling to me that Hillary's 34% lead from December of 07 was cut to 4% in three-ish months. When the campaigning started, that 34% lead evaporated in a month.

[MadBadger]

3. In six weeks he closed a 27 point lead In Nevada.

[Zynx]

5. You know perfectly well that was not what I was referring to.

I am complaining about how people are making up history.

[Exilednight]

12. You're attempting to rewrite history. Obama was down big time, it wasn't until after ......

South Carolina that he began to surge.

[papau]

4. the myth that more Obama campaining moves voters to him is his excuse for

surveys showing he would do poorly in any given state.

Unfortunately - Ohio showed that more Obama means less votes for Obama.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. Agreed.

What other trends beside Ohio?

It's an anomaly.

[skipos]

7. Yes, Texas was neck and neck for months. A tremendous comeback for Hil!

[Kaylee]

13. Well, when you put it like that......

;)

[scheming daemons]

10. Six weeks from now, you'll claim that Hillary never had a 15-20 point lead in PA....

...when she gets a narrow win.

[BeyondGeography]

11. Sorry that Obama's ability to erase big leads disappoints you so

:eyes: