Obama may win by 20 points yet only gain 3-5 delegates because of gerry-mandering

[Herman Munster]

Don't you love how fair the delegate allocations are?

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/MS-D.phtml

In Mississippi, 22 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 4 congressional districts.

CD 1: 5
CD 2: 7
CD 3: 5
CD 4: 5

In addition, 11 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.

CD2 is the district that is African-American and Obama could very well run up the margin to 5-2 there. But CD1 (rural district next to Arkansas) and CD4 (that the Clintons have targeted in their few appearances in the state) will definitely go 3-2 for Clinton. CD3 should be more interesting to watch but the final margin there will be 3-2 one way or another anyway.

So at best he would get 11-11 or maybe 12-10.

Then you have the 11 delegates on the state wide vote. Assuming a 60-40 split for Obama. Obama wins that 7-4.

Therefore, you have a net Obama delegate gain of 3 on the low end and 5 on the upper end.

If Hillary keeps the Mississippi margin tighter to about 10-15 points or so, the congressional districts likely split 11-11, and Obama wins the statewide vote 6-5, and nets a grand total of 1 delegate out of Mississippi.

[adoraz]

1. wow, only??? isn't that hillary's gain in the texas primary?

and also HILLARY needs to win, not Obama. Even a tie would be great.

spin spin spin

Do you not understand math?

[Kittycat]

12. No, Obama will end up with 3-5 delegates ahead of her.

He won TX.

[slick8790]

2. I'm predicting 20-13 Obama. n/t

[pinkpops]

3. Wasn't there a similar situation in Texas which worked to Obama's

advantage?

[DiggerDan]

4. Weeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Obama will net about 8-10 more delegates.

[kid a]

6. Can Hillary really afford to give up even ONE delegate - she's moving backward...darn

[Benhurst]

7. I no longer have a dog in this fight, but I think it has been disgraceful

the way the delegates have been doled out. I don't care whether it is to the advantage of this candidate or that, it is still unfair.

Whether we win or lose the general election, the primary rules need a thorough reworking for the 2012 primary election.

[Herman Munster]

10. i agree

there needs to be some winner take all aspect to it, maybe not 100% of delegates in a state but a certain percentage, and get rid of the superdelegates.

If you have a winner take all aspect, races will be decided much quicker.

[Frances]

11. I think this close election has made it clear to us how

complicated the rules are.

Because of the proportionality rule, "winning" doesn't mean what we thought it did. Both Obama and Hillary have won and lost with this rule.

[TwilightGardener]

8. That's OK, 'cause it's a delegate race, as we Obama supporters have been saying.

[malik flavors]

9. Yea, this would be a better argument if it was Obama that was behind.