CNN site shows 4% of the vote in and Hillary at 53% and Barack 45% ... how can they claim a winner?

[Seabiscuit]

I say just let all the votes come in and then declare, but using exit polls sometimes as we all know aren't entirely reliable.

[Perky]

1. Because they poll statewid not in just a couple of counties

[Roland99]

2. Rural, smaller precincts will report first...those will tend toward Hillary

And judging from exit polls, Obama will win very comfortably.

[supersonica]

7. hmm, they said the same thing in Texas, but Obama didn't gain ground at the end

For some reason, Obama was ahead at first, then both tied, then Clinton ended up up by 4%, despite us being told that rural counties come in first.

But it was probably an aberration.

Exit polls show Obama with around 60% of the Mississippi vote. Odds are he will get there sooner than later.

[dansolo]

16. There was early voting in Texas

Obama had the lead early because they put the tally of the early voters first.

[muntrv]

3. Apparently, the counties in the delta haven't yet reported. Those counties

are expected to go to Obama.

[anamandujano]

13. Why is that?

[NJSecularist]

4. Wait for Hinds and Yazoo County to report

Those should be Obama strongholds.

[slick8790]

5. So far the exit polls have been right almost every time this season, at least in who wins.

Every single news organization shows him winning significantly in exit polls, near 20%. That's how they project.

[dnbmathguy]

6. The exit poll totals in the rest of the state are probably outside the margin of error

Also, if the exit polls had that 4% at a different proportion, say Hillary 56% Barack 42%, then this is actually evidence in support of Barack.

Of course, sometimes really unlikely things happen. Thus, exit polls cannot be 100% reliable, as we have seen.

[Exilednight]

8. The exit polls were overwhelming. They now wait until all the polls close before reporting.....

this wasn't the case for the longest time.

[MadBadger]

9. Big Obama areas havent reported yet.

And the exit polls have him winning by 18

[LisaL]

10. I dunno.

They projected this before they even got the results, or so it seems.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MS

[UALRBSofL]

11. Has Harrison County been counted yet

They should go for Hillary.

[LisaL]

19. Harrison is 50-50 right now (with 45 % reporting)

[BalancedGoat]

21. 45% reporting in Harrison

Hillary leads by literally two votes.

[Roland99]

12. 8% in and Obama's up. 49-48.

[LisaL]

15. Jeez.

Based on this, should they be projecting Obama as winner?
There've been primaries when one candidate was way more ahead than that, and they haven't projected the winner this early.
So far it looks like it's gonna be close, unless I am missing something.

[SoCalDem]

18. you are missing something

:hug:

[Roland99]

20. Now it's 53-45 Obama...the complete opposite from your OP. 16% of precincts reporting

That's how they can call Obama.

[earthlover]

22. There have been 40 states so far, and here is a clue for you...

In every single one of them, the rural, smaller districts report first. They tend to be more conservative. So they tend to favor the more conservative candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Then, because it takes more time to count larger numbers of votes, the bigger districts start to come in. Obama does better in the cities.

Now let's examine what the exit polls do. They take samples from various parts of the state and extrapolate from them how the state is going to do. No waiting for the big districts to be counted.

Get it yet?

Hillary always starts out ahead in these races. Her base is conservative america.

[LisaL]

23. Well, here is a clue for you.

They haven't called OH until very late into the primary, and Hillary was always leading there in all the returns.

[earthlover]

29. and hillary started the night higher than she ended it....as always

so can we make a bet as to whether obama will win in MS? I bet he will, when all votes are cast. i will give you good odds too.

[mmonk]

14. It will be Obama.

[rocktivity]

17. If it were up to me, projections could not be announced

until at least an hour after the polls have closed and at least 60% of the precints have reported. It would make for bad broadcast journalism, but it would also make for a better electoral process.

:headbang:
rocknatin

[k8conant]

24. Nobody's still voting there...

how can the projections change that?

[rocktivity]

25. Precisely the OP's point--why make projections based on polls

when you're just hours away from having actual vote totals?

:shrug:
rocknation

[niceypoo]

26. If it were 50% it wouldnt be enough......

screw the goddamn pundits....

[LisaL]

27. I think they've made those projections based on exit polls alone.

[scheming daemons]

28. Exit polls: 61% of men for Obama, 57% of women... unless there's another gender in MS, they can ...

...call it.


If he gets less than 57%, then funny business is going on.