Ceilings/floors.

[Bushwick Bill]

I listened to some roundtable in the last day or two on the XM POTUS channel, and somebody spelled it out pretty well today. Full disclosure, I am a cult member, but I totally see the other side. David Corn or (I actually think it was another person) on the roundtable explained that the Senator Clinton floor is very high (she will NEVER, EVER get less than 48-ish% of a GE vote), but her high side is like 51-52%. If the other candidate's range is 40%-60%, which is the better candidate? GREAT question. I have no idea.

[Bucky]

1. Obama holds out the hope of a realignment (altho Bush helped us in that way)

Yes, Obama is a bigger roll of the dice. I think the floor you cite for Clinton may be a little high. But Obama can give us a victory with coat tails. Clinton, for all her talents and brains, cannot.

[Exilednight]

2. And we need the coattails. It was no mistake that Bill lost the majority we held in Congress.

[bain_sidhe]

3. Coat tails

Obama can give us a victory with coat tails.

I hope you're right. The study in Texas worries me though. In a review of counties that went for Obama, The Dallas Morning News found that a lot of people didn't vote in the down-ticket races. They were there to vote for Obama. Period.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/030908dnpoldemvoters.3a5249f.html

The focus of the article was that these voters may not come out in the fall if he's not the nominee, but we already knew (or suspected) that. What worries me more though, is that if Obama IS the nominee, his support might not translate into down-ticket gains.